Srain Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Meh, haters are goin' to hate. It looks like just a touch of dry air may have been ingested. Water temps are very supportive (30 C) all the way to the coast. I suspect Jova is still at least a 105kt cyclone. Let's give it a few hours before tossing it under the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Like what would he do, go back home? Cautious not ridiculous. The EPac has overachieved this year in spite of the lower than average number of cyclones and the developing La Niña. No I was talking more about the overall luck for storms that we have watched closely this year, outside of, to a certain extent, Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Definitely has degraded somewhat. Just now getting into the favorable OHC though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yo. You were breaking up bad and finally dropped. Here is the other place further N I was talking about. http://www.careyes.com.mx/index.php 52 315 3510 320 Haven't found any contacts yet for the area that juts out just to the S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yo. You were breaking up bad and finally dropped. Here is the other place further N I was talking about. http://www.careyes.com.mx/index.php 52 315 3510 320 Haven't found any contacts yet for the area that juts out just to the S. Thanks-- yup, I marked it on the map. I took my time on the drive today and scouted several towns and a resort. I now have a solid set of good coastal locations from Manzanillo up to Jose Maria Morelos-- a 90-mi swath of the coast-- so if the cyclone crosses in that area, I'm golden. N of there, it gets a little harder due to 1) the lack of good towns and 2) accessibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 As long as the cyclone doesn't trend too much further N, I'm going to get right in the center of whatever it comes ashore-- because I have the expected landfall zone very well-covered. Now, what exactly comes ashore is another question entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 The MW gods are mocking us. We haven't had a decent image since early this morning. The AMSRE is out of service, and the latest TMI and SSMI are part of a sick joke on us.... whatever scraps I can get from the SSMI is that the west eyewall is still there (or mostly there, at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 The MW gods are mocking us. We haven't had a decent image since early this morning. The AMSRE is out of service, and the latest TMI and SSMI are part of a sick joke on us.... whatever scraps I can get from the SSMI is that the west eyewall is still there (or mostly there, at least). As I finished writing that, the SSMIS made me look bad BTW, ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 As I finished writing that, the SSMIS made me look bad BTW, ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidniteEscape Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I would think jova should maintain at least cat2 staus. With the favorable OHC and what appears the SE shear turning more inline with the direction closer to landfall, whatever comes ashore should be quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 As I finished writing that, the SSMIS made me look bad BTW, ouch! That sucks for Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 MIMIC 0z 10th-0z 11th... Looks like a legit TC for most of the loop, but it becomes pretty "meh" towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Perhaps a yoga session might be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 devastating mimic...maybe it'll get its act back together though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 The 8 pm PDT advisory is kind of bullish, compared to what I'd expect. Like, they didn't reduce the intensity that much, and they don't predict it to lower too much more. Also, the landfall point they show seems a bit to the right of what the trend is suggesting. I'd be delighted with the landfall point they show-- it's right in the sweet spot that that I so exhaustively scouted today-- but I think it would take a wobble back to the right to make that happen. Getting dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Grr... Posted by Bret B on September 22, 2011, 6:28 pm I finally got a reply from the CNA about when our nearest weather radar station would be back in operation: Lamentamos mucho que el radar de Cuyutlán, Col., presente severos daños, pero estamos solicitando los trabajos requeridos para restablecer su operación. Les agradezco su interés y su comprensión. Saludos Jorge Tokunaga He says it's severely damaged and that they are seeking repair estimates, but not what happened or when it will be fixed. Obviously not THIS hurricane season! It sure would be great to have true weather radar to directly see precipitation (at least around Cuyutlan to the south of Manzanillo anyway), and not have to rely on the highly interpretive GOES infrared loops, or the several-hours-delayed TRMM satellite radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Contact info for Cuixmala. Closer to the coast vs. Emiliano Zapata. http://www.cuixmala.com/C/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Slight relocation of the center to the SE, as per the 11 pm PDT advisory. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Thought I was seeing things thinking there was some sort of pseudo like center reformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Thought I was seeing things thinking there was some sort of pseudo like center reformation. Me, too! I was looking at the IR loop and thought I saw the center nudging or reforming SE-- and of course I assumed eyes were playing tricks on me. Since every tenth of a degree is going to count at this point, I take it as a good thing. I want the darn center to cross in my sweet spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I did see a re-emergence of colder cloud tops in the latest frames of the 3:45 am mimic animation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 I did see a re-emergence of colder cloud tops in the latest frames of the 3:45 am mimic animation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 So, I went into into Manzanillo's city center tonight. Wow-- a total acid trip of a city. I don't even know how to describe it, it's so strange. Take the decaying, vampiric quality of New Orleans, add the extreme hilliness of San Francisco, overlay a heavy Mexican flavor on that and add about ten lit statues of Mary per city block... and you have Manzanillo. Perhaps it was just because it was late at night, right before a hurricane-- but the narrow, dimly-lit streets had a mysterious, foreboding quality. I walked into one alleyway, and it seemed like every single power line, every window sill, every railing was completely covered with black birds... sitting completely still, resting. I constantly saw cats darting across the abandoned streets, and the ones I didn't see I heard-- wailing in the strangest way. I passed a barred window and saw an old man sitting alone in a single-room apartment, under an exposed lightbulb, watching an ancient TV. Some of the neighborhoods are on spectacular peaks with extreme gradients, accessible only by steep staircases. The buildings are old and falling apart-- they seem to be literally rotting into the hills, becoming part of them-- and as you get higher up, they get closer together, so that you're practically squeezing between them as you climb the stairs. Down below, the port itself is harsh, industrial. A promenade along it has a giant sculpture of a blue dolphin. Thumbs up for Manzanillo. I totally dug this bizarre taste of Mexican gothic. It was mega-cool-- easily the most interesting Mexican city I've ever visited-- and in the most unintentional way. Sorry to get all Travel Channel, but it was cool to see this place. I have to remind myself that, no matter what happens with Jova, the trip has given me an opportunity to see a cool and unique place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 You should be a poet or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 To bring this back to hurricanes... I thought it would be good to put Jova in a little historical context: Manzanillo was devastated by the Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959-- the only known/presumed Cat-5 landfall on MX's Pacific coast. There's not too much info on this storm, unfortunately, but the center apparently crossed the coast at Bahia Tenacatita, very near La Manzanilla. That's approx. 35 mi WNW of Manzanillo, and I therefore doubt the city was in the cyclone's core. Whatever the the case may be with these meteorological finepoints, the city was devastated. Since so much of it is more than 100 ft above sea level, I'll be those hilltop neighborhood just got punished with extremely high winds. Hurricane Beatriz-- a Cat 1-- brushed the Manzanillo earlier this year. But that aside, this SW "elbow" of the MX coast around Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta-- comprising the states of Colima and Jalisco-- hasn't had a lot of hurricane action over the last couple of decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 The 00Z Euro brings Jova ashore pretty close to the NHC's predicted landfall point-- after weakening it. The Euro has been persistent Re: that weakening-- maybe it was onto something all along. The latest IR suggests it's steady-state-- no worse, no better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 The 00Z Euro brings Jova ashore pretty close to the NHC's predicted landfall point-- after weakening it. The Euro has been persistent Re: that weakening-- maybe it was onto something all along. The latest IR suggests it's steady-state-- no worse, no better. GFDL is fairly reasonable. A bit further N at around 105 kts. Nothing wrong with that at all if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Wow, GFDL might actually nail this for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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