HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 Hopefully you don't have any interesting encounters with the Mexican military or bumpkin police officers. I have on past chases, and they've always been courteous and helpful. They're not looking to bother American visitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'm starting to wonder whether southeasterly shear is going to be an issue with this going forward. The eyewall is pretty asymmetric based on the latest microwave imagery and the SFMR rain rates off the last center pass, with the strongest convection occurring in the southern half. Also, the 700 mb warm core on the latest SSW-NE pass is offset from the center towards the NE, potentially indicative of upshear subsidence warming resulting from a tilted vortex. The eyewall still appears closed, so I don't think the shear is detrimentally affecting Jova yet. However, the ECMWF upper level pattern just prior to landfall does seem suggestive of at least moderate southeasterly shear, which could be the mechanism responsible for the weakening depicted. Yep, the ECWMF develops 30-40 knot southeasterly flow that would certainly be enough to weaken Jova before landfall if it verifies. It seems that this flow is intensifying in part due to the strengthening upper level ridge to the east of Jova. It is interesting that the GFS shows no such southeasterly enhancement with most of the upper level flow moving parallel to Jova which would likely prevent a major increase in shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 In a little town called Emiliano Zapata. An extremely loud speaker blasted a hurricane warning-- in Spanish and English-- throughout the town. I think you could hear it from inasde a sealed room. Now it's stopped and I hear a rooster crowing. I see the latest NHC forecast brings the center ashore around La Manzanilla or Barra De Navidad, so I'm going to take a careful look at those towns as I pass them. I'm about an hour or so from Manzanillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 Yep, the ECWMF develops 30-40 knot southeasterly flow that would certainly be enough to weaken Jova before landfall if it verifies. It seems that this flow is intensifying in part due to the strengthening upper level ridge to the east of Jova. It is interesting that the GFS shows no such southeasterly enhancement with most of the upper level flow moving parallel to Jova which would likely prevent a major increase in shear. You've been silent on Jova for days, and then you pop in to talk about shear. Oh, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak22 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 In a little town called Emiliano Zapata. An extremely loud speaker blasted a hurricane warning-- in Spanish and English-- throughout the town. I think you could hear it from inasde a sealed room. Now it's stopped and I hear a rooster crowing. I see the latest NHC forecast brings the center ashore around La Manzanilla or Barra De Navidad, so I'm going to take a careful look at those towns as I pass them. I'm about an hour or so from Manzanillo. Josh, also check out Melaque - north around the bay from Barra. If you want a spot where you can look out over the ocean and see the hurricane coming directly towards you, this may be the better angle. If I remember correctly, Barra looks more northward and Melaque has the west/southwest view. Not sure what kind of infrastructure they have there now, it was just a couple of buildings when I lived there, but somehow they had the best rates for changing money (and used to kickback some to us tour guides) in 1990... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 In a little town called Emiliano Zapata. An extremely loud speaker blasted a hurricane warning-- in Spanish and English-- throughout the town. I think you could hear it from inasde a sealed room. Now it's stopped and I hear a rooster crowing. I see the latest NHC forecast brings the center ashore around La Manzanilla or Barra De Navidad, so I'm going to take a careful look at those towns as I pass them. I'm about an hour or so from Manzanillo. I'm thinking that they might adjust a tad further N with the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Good luck and stay safe Josh! I can honestly say I am super jealous! I would love to have the resources to take off and go chase this thing. I hope you know how lucky you are to have the ability to hop on a plane, book a hotel room, rent a car, and not worry about a job and follow your hobby and dream. Again, stay safe and I look forward to pictures and video of your escapade. You are one lucky guy for sure to be able to do what you love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Yep, the ECWMF develops 30-40 knot southeasterly flow that would certainly be enough to weaken Jova before landfall if it verifies. It seems that this flow is intensifying in part due to the strengthening upper level ridge to the east of Jova. It is interesting that the GFS shows no such southeasterly enhancement with most of the upper level flow moving parallel to Jova which would likely prevent a major increase in shear. Yeah the GFS is definitely not as strong with the southeasterly upper level flow than the ECMWF. Even the SHIPS (based off the GFS) still has 15-20 kt of shear though, so you have to figure the ECMWF shear is quite a bit higher and squarely in the destructive category. The fact that Jova's response to shear is so well-defined so far doesn't bode well for the increase in shear over the next 24 hours. However, the increasing oceanic heat content may be able to offset that somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Yeah the GFS is definitely not as strong with the southeasterly upper level flow than the ECMWF. Even the SHIPS (based off the GFS) still has 15-20 kt of shear though, so you have to figure the ECMWF shear is quite a bit higher and squarely in the destructive category. The fact that Jova's response to shear is so well-defined so far doesn't bode well for the increase in shear over the next 24 hours. However, the increasing oceanic heat content may be able to offset that somewhat. Josh isn't gonna like this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Just in case there are any northward shifts... Tenacatita - http://www.bluebayresorts.com/en/hotel/bluebay-los-angeles-locos.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 And it seems to be shifting north of the latest projected track... I'm thinking that they might adjust a tad further N with the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 For those, like me, not an expert on the geography of Jalisco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I have on past chases, and they've always been courteous and helpful. They're not looking to bother American visitors. That's mostly in the Yucatan though right? I'd assume the states in southwestern Mexico would be a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 Just in case there are any northward shifts... Tenacatita - http://www.bluebayresorts.com/en/hotel/bluebay-los-angeles-locos.html Ha ha ha, it's funny typed this, because guess where I am right this very second? This resort isn't actually in Tencatita-- it's at the N end of Bahia Tencatita. It's a gorgeous location-- the footage would be stunning-- and the manager said they'll take me tomorrow if I want to stay there. It's really an awesome location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Good luck Josh...and take care of yourself!! Hope get good video and data!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Ha ha ha, it's funny typed this, because guess where I am right this very second? This resort isn't actually in Tencatita-- it's at the N end of Bahia Tencatita. It's a gorgeous location-- the footage would be stunning-- and the manager said they'll tale me tomorrow if I want to stay there. It's really an awesome location. lol I was gonna say you probably passed right by it on your way S and that it was in the bay between Manzanilla and Tencatita. Any further shifts N and Costa Careyes/Costalegre is a target. Another place you probably drove by on 200. http://www.careyes.com.mx/index.php Have an email out for availability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Ha ha ha, it's funny typed this, because guess where I am right this very second? This resort isn't actually in Tencatita-- it's at the N end of Bahia Tencatita. It's a gorgeous location-- the footage would be stunning-- and the manager said they'll tale me tomorrow if I want to stay there. It's really an awesome location. Fit. Los Angeles locos for a loco de Los Angeles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Do you have a good secure location to ride out the worst parts of the storm safely? Ha ha ha, it's funny typed this, because guess where I am right this very second? This resort isn't actually in Tencatita-- it's at the N end of Bahia Tencatita. It's a gorgeous location-- the footage would be stunning-- and the manager said they'll take me tomorrow if I want to stay there. It's really an awesome location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 That's mostly in the Yucatan though right? I'd assume the states in southwestern Mexico would be a bit different. He has only chased once in the Yucatan. Actually, the MX Wern GOM is the place he has been most, with two appearances last year. The Pan American games start in 4 days, and they are hosted in Guadalajara, with places like Puerto Vallarta co-hosting some events, so I would assume a super-friendly environment for foreigners with enhanced security. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 That's mostly in the Yucatan though right? I'd assume the states in southwestern Mexico would be a bit different. I have a friend in foreign service who is based on Guadalajara ... she was in Vallarta this weekend, drove there. They go a few places with escorts but not very many. I think most of the horror stories we hear about are nearer the U.S. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Eye seems to have completely filled in, but at the same time Jova's looking nice a symmetrical right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Like I told you Josh, ensembles have been too far to the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Eye seems to have completely filled in, but at the same time Jova's looking nice a symmetrical right now... The symmetrical shape of the CDO is pretty misleading right now. Unfortunately we haven't had any microwave passes in a while to illuminate the inner core convective structure, but earlier they showed the asymmetry pretty well, and in all likelihood it's become more asymmetric since then. In the visible image, note the overshooting tops in the southern quad, which is consistent with updrafts initiating downshear (west) and maturing as they move cyclonically around the center. Hurricanes can and sometimes do intensify under moderate shear and asymmetric eyewall convection (see Ophelia), but the cooling and closing of the eye today are not suggestive of intensification. The outflow is quite restricted in the eastern semicircle, and the shear may increase even more over the next day or so. Honestly I would be getting somewhat nervous about the deteriorating satellite presentation if I were Josh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 You'd think the cyclone was on life support the way you folks have been talking about it today. In Manzanillo, trying to find my hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Well with the way this year has gone...it can't hurt to be more cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Like what would he do, go back home? Well with the way this year has gone...it can't hurt to be more cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 JOVE just an hour ago, sporting an eye visible in IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Well with the way this year has gone...it can't hurt to be more cautious. The EPac has overachieved this year in spite of the lower than average number of cyclones and the developing La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 There isn't any recent microwave images...but given the IR look, I'm speculating an ERC might have started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Wow-- y'all are really crapping on it. Seriously, I hadn't looked at the IR in a while, and based on the posts here, I was expecting to find a buttuglycane. . You can cut the Jovahate with a knife in this discussion. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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