icebreaker5221 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Well, I came here to comment on the sudden increase in symmetry and the clearing out of the eye, but it looks like you guys took care of that... So instead I'll just say: good luck Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 Jova looks nice on satellite for sure. Have fun Josh! Best of luck my friend, stay safe. Look forward to your posts. Thanks, guys. It's cool to have some New England eyes on a cyclone way down in Mexico. Well, I came here to comment on the sudden increase in symmetry and the clearing out of the eye, but it looks like you guys took care of that... So instead I'll just say: good luck Josh! Thanks, dude! I'll need it with this-- it's gonna be a tough one, I think. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 Jorge says he's cool with the ZLO plan. He pointed out that the cyclone is still moving essentially E-- not more N, like, the GFDL track would require by this point. Thanks, Jorge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Jorge says he's cool with the ZLO plan. He pointed out that the cyclone is still moving essentially E-- not more N, like, the GFDL track would require by this point. Thanks, Jorge! OTOH, 12z GFS is a tad to the left of 06z, barely clipping Cabo Corrientes :S It has a NE track from initialization, which at hour 4 (now) hasn't materialized yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Good luck Joshypoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 The most recent NHC centerline has been shifted 5 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Stay safe Josh and have a great chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Recon first pass SE quad - 114kt at 700mb, 91kt unflagged SFMR Extrap pressure 957.0mb NW quad - 95kt flight level, SFMR 85kt unflagged (though highest region is flagged) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Recon first pass SE quad - 114kt at 700mb, 91kt unflagged SFMR Extrap pressure 957.0mb NW quad - 95kt flight level, SFMR 85kt unflagged (though highest region is flagged) Is the KML from tropicalatlantic not working for anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Is the KML from tropicalatlantic not working for anyone else? Not working here, wasn't working with yesterday's mission either. It doesn't seem like Tropical Atlantic has acknowledge either mission, as the recon home page is blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Is the KML from tropicalatlantic not working for anyone else? It's not working, nor the automatic decoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Not working here, wasn't working with yesterday's mission either. It doesn't seem like Tropical Atlantic has acknowledge either mission, as the recon home page is blank. It was working thru obs18 or something, then it died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 It was working thru obs18 or something, then it died. For yesteday's mission they started recon under the Atlantic heading on NOAA by mistake, and changed over to the East Pacific with the 20th set of observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'm such an idiot. I was using the Atlantic link. There is a separate link for the EPAC and CPAC. http://www.tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 For yesteday's mission they started recon under the Atlantic heading on NOAA by mistake, and changed over to the East Pacific with the 20th set of observations. Yep, same thing today. When the plane crossed 100W, it switched over to the EPAC/CPAC decoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'm such an idiot. I was using the Atlantic link. There is a separate link for the EPAC and CPAC. http://www.tropicalg...eastandcentral/ Your not alone, I was doing the same thing, didn't realize they had an EPAC site. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 For yesteday's mission they started recon under the Atlantic heading on NOAA by mistake, and changed over to the East Pacific with the 20th set of observations. I'm such an idiot. I was using the Atlantic link. There is a separate link for the EPAC and CPAC. http://www.tropicalg...eastandcentral/ Two idiots now. I know, I know... pick the room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 12z Euro came in just north of Manzanillo... still showing the RW just prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Pretty cool loop here from the CIMSS blog....three different views of Jova's eye from different satellites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Good luck, Josh. I look forward to seeing the full video in 2019! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Recon first pass SE quad - 114kt at 700mb, 91kt unflagged SFMR Extrap pressure 957.0mb NW quad - 95kt flight level, SFMR 85kt unflagged (though highest region is flagged) URPN12 KNHC 101803 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102011 A. 10/17:36:10Z B. 16 deg 30 min N 106 deg 29 min W C. 700 mb 2734 m D. 92 kt E. 123 deg 7 nm F. 218 deg 114 kt G. 123 deg 7 nm H. 960 mb I. 9 C / 3050 m J. 16 C / 3035 m K. 2 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C18 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 0210E JOVA OB 11 MAX FL WIND 114 KT SE QUAD 17:33:50Z MAX OUTBOUND SFMR SURFACE WIND 97 KTS. ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Good luck Josh... I hope Jova breaks your cat 3+ drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Sub 956 per HDOBs. That'd be 4 mb in ~2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Sub 956 per HDOBs. That'd be 4 mb in ~2 hours. I'd hold up on that. On the last pass, we had 957 extrap, but 960 on the VDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'm starting to wonder whether southeasterly shear is going to be an issue with this going forward. The eyewall is pretty asymmetric based on the latest microwave imagery and the SFMR rain rates off the last center pass, with the strongest convection occurring in the southern half. Also, the 700 mb warm core on the latest SSW-NE pass is offset from the center towards the NE, potentially indicative of upshear subsidence warming resulting from a tilted vortex. The eyewall still appears closed, so I don't think the shear is detrimentally affecting Jova yet. However, the ECMWF upper level pattern just prior to landfall does seem suggestive of at least moderate southeasterly shear, which could be the mechanism responsible for the weakening depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I'd hold up on that. On the last pass, we had 957 extrap, but 960 on the VDM 958mb with 109kt max sfc wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 On Highway 200, heading S. I'm about to make the turn E, near Tomatlan-- so I'll be back along the coast soon. The area S of Puerto Vallarta was tough going-- a windy, hilly, uneven road through what seemed like a rainforest-- with heavy vegetation and even a waterfall. The road seems to have straightened out and seems a lot less interesting now, praise the Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 On Highway 200, heading S. I'm about to make the turn E, near Tomatlan-- so I'll be back along the coast soon. The area S of Puerto Vallarta was tough going-- a windy, hilly, uneven road through what seemed like a rainforest-- with heavy vegetation and even a waterfall. The road seems to have straightened out and seems a lot less interesting now, praise the Lord. Hopefully you don't have any interesting encounters with the Mexican military or bumpkin police officers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Hopefully you don't have any interesting encounters with the Mexican military or bumpkin police officers. I'd love to have a Mexican military incident in Josh's chase history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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