Mallow Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Just to remind those who don't yet know or who forgot--Wunderground has excellent, hi-res ECMWF maps that can be very useful in forecasting Jova: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 FWIW, the 00z shows Jova at or just below 952mb at hour 99 as it moves due north towards the coast just west of Manzanillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 Encouraging signs this afternoon: * Jova is now a hurricane. * The NHC seems confident about landfall near Manzanillo. * The new forecast brings it up to 100 kt before landfall-- higher than the previous forecast. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Hawai'i has hurricanes, actually, on the East side of the DateLine. I do not think any Typhoon has ever crossed from West to East near Hawai'i, not sure if the name would change when it became a hurricane. It wasn't horribly near HI but HR John (EPAC storm) that bombed out in Cenpac tracked into WPAC and then back out into CENPAC-longest lived TC on record at the time. No the names will not change with a crossover-never have in the Pacific and only do so in ATL-EPAC crossovers if the LLCC dissipates before completing the crossover. The have been a few WPAC storms that have wandered into CENPAC before becoming ET but usually fairly high latitude and not near HI would have to check through 52 years of ATCRs to find them though. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 System to the east of Jova is now a cherry (80%) as well. Manzanillo could be in serious trouble with a hit of this magnitude and considering it's Mexico's busiest port, could have a substantial economic impact as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Encouraging signs this afternoon: * Jova is now a hurricane. * The NHC seems confident about landfall near Manzanillo. * The new forecast brings it up to 100 kt before landfall-- higher than the previous forecast. Cool. I've been to Peurto Vallarta; nice area, modern, celebs and wealth. That coastal highway is your only route of flexibility so you'd best position with skill. GFS shows Irwin nearly stationary at Cabo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Manzanillo would be the best place to establish your headquarters. Cat 3 sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Are you sticking around for Irwin too? Good question. At this point, I don't think so, because the NHC is forecasting it to really fall apart before it reaches the coast. After Jova, I'll probably want to high-tail it back to CA. Josh: good luck with the adventure. Interesting that these EPAC systems lose strength if they take on an easterly component but it makes sense. It seems that your most obvious potentials for underperformance are -not finding passable roads in all important directions of travel -if Jova slows down even more -if Jova weakens rapidly as it approaches the coast due to dry air, friction with land, shear Here is and interesting visual, it seems NHC has hidden their good stuff behind a few less-than-obvious menu clicks: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/index.php?loop&large&basin=nh1&parm=pmsl#contents It sems to depict Jova maintaining intensity right on into the coastline. Note; if you click on "gusts" animation, the gusts are depicted to drop off a smidge just before reaching the coast. Hey, Richard-- thanks for this cool link! I didn't know about it and it's awesome! I especially like the "gust" view-- it's hawt. Yep, I definitely worry about weakening as cyclones approach MX's mountainous terrain. I think those darn mountains are why Karl crapped out so badly last year. However, recurving, late-season 'canes on this side have a habit of speeding up as they approach the coast-- a la Kenna 2002-- so I'm hoping Jova follow tradition. The SSTs right offshore are very warm, so that should help. Good luck-- I enjoy your REAL TIME updates of things. As always, be safe! Aw, thanks, Keith. Jova is an awesome TC, I'd definitely considering chasing this. I don't know much about EPAC Climo, is this West-East track rare? Perhaps it is not as rare as the Hawaiian typhoon. Thanks, man. I'd say a pure W-to-E track is unusual, but it's not at all uncommon for October cyclones to accelerate NE or even ENE toward the coast. Just to remind those who don't yet know or who forgot--Wunderground has excellent, hi-res ECMWF maps that can be very useful in forecasting Jova: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 FWIW, the 00z shows Jova at or just below 952mb at hour 99 as it moves due north towards the coast just west of Manzanillo. Awesome-- thanks, Mallowberry! System to the east of Jova is now a cherry (80%) as well. Manzanillo could be in serious trouble with a hit of this magnitude and considering it's Mexico's busiest port, could have a substantial economic impact as well. Agreed. Interestingly, Manzanillo was devastated by the only known Cat-5 landfall on this side, in 1959. I'm not sure that Manzanillo was actually in the eyewall, but if not, it was very close. The city hasn't been really nailed since. I've been to Peurto Vallarta; nice area, modern, celebs and wealth. That coastal highway is your only route of flexibility so you'd best position with skill. GFS shows Irwin nearly stationary at Cabo. Yep, I think I'm going to be driving that highway between PVR and ZLO, trying to find just the right spot. On a side note, I'm excited to see PVR-- so even if the cyclone busts, it'll be a fun trip. And, to be perfectly frank, I'm kind of glad this one is coming in close to a more tourist-friendly area, with all of the expected amenities. The last couple of Mexican 'canes hit way out in the sticks, and that just makes it all even harder. Manzanillo would be the best place to establish your headquarters. Cat 3 sounds about right Wow-- you think? Glad to hear your'e bullish about this one. To hedge my bets, I decided to keep both hotel reservations-- for PVR and ZLO. I'm going to waste some money paying for two for one night, but I wasn't ready to cancel either just yet. The track is still a bit up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Evening thoughts: Jova's looking more like a real cyclone this evening-- rather than just this enormous mass of crazy-cold cloud tops. The afternoon NHC track is quite provocative, and it means my plan for right now stays the same: fly into PVR tomorrow afternoon, and then station in either PVR or ZLO. (I have hotel reservations in both ports.) Given that the latest forecast brings the cyclone ashore Tuesday, it looks like I'll have plenty of time to settle in, which I'm really excited about-- I hate rush-job chases. Very curious to see the 8 pm PDT package from the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 On a side note, I'm excited to see PVR-- so even if the cyclone busts, it'll be a fun trip. And, to be perfectly frank, I'm kind of glad this one is coming in close to a more tourist-friendly area, with all of the expected amenities. The last couple of Mexican 'canes hit way out in the sticks, and that just makes it all even harder. Wow-- you think? Glad to hear your'e bullish about this one. To hedge my bets, I decided to keep both hotel reservations-- for PVR and ZLO. I'm going to waste some money paying for two for one night, but I wasn't ready to cancel either just yet. The track is still a bit up in the air. Nuevo Vallarta is the newer, better looking part of the area... which is in Nayarit, but is also part of the area in Bahia Banderas... I see little limiting factors, and it looks very good already... shear won't be much of a factor, but you never know with all these intrincacies associated with tropical cyclones. No model, I think, shows any landfall N of PVR, and some show it south of ZLO, so I think Manzanillo would be a better place to stage the chase. But since you already paid for the first night in PVR, you can sleep there and then head south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Nuevo Vallarta is the newer, better looking part of the area... which is in Nayarit, but is also part of the area in Bahia Banderas... I see little limiting factors, and it looks very good already... shear won't be much of a factor, but you never know with all these intrincacies associated with tropical cyclones. No model, I think, shows any landfall N of PVR, and some show it south of ZLO, so I think Manzanillo would be a better place to stage the chase. But since you already paid for the first night in PVR, you can sleep there and then head south. Hey, thanks, Jorge. The thing that had me most spooked earlier today were the models that showed a sharp N turn, almost missing Cabo Corrientes. (I notice some of them, like the GFDL, have since shifted E, praise the Lord.) Do you feel fairly certain that landfall will occur on the S coast of MX-- i.e., PVR or further SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Good luck with the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Safe travels and good luck on a nice core intercept and yet another iCyclone EPAC adventure. I look forward to the updates while convalescing the next several days. Stay safe, buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Good luck, Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Good luck with the chase. Safe travels and good luck on a nice core intercept and yet another iCyclone EPAC adventure. I look forward to the updates while convalescing the next several days. Stay safe, buddy! Good luck, Josh! Thanks, guys-- I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Hey, thanks, Jorge. The thing that had me most spooked earlier today were the models that showed a sharp N turn, almost missing Cabo Corrientes. (I notice some of them, like the GFDL, have since shifted E, praise the Lord.) Do you feel fairly certain that landfall will occur on the S coast of MX-- i.e., PVR or further SE? Yep, model consensus has shifted south, so I feel pretty confident it will be S of PVR... but the usual disclaimer here, TCs have a mind of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Jorge, this part of the Discussion freaked me out: HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS AND TAKE THE CENTER OVER OR WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. Say something to make me feel better. Help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Yep, model consensus has shifted south, so I feel pretty confident it will be S of PVR... but the usual disclaimer here, TCs have a mind of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Jorge, this part of the Discussion freaked me out: HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS AND TAKE THE CENTER OVER OR WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. Say something to make me feel better. Help. Hadn't seen the ensembles.... but the GFS EnkF shows a landfall in Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo, so I'll consider them outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Hadn't seen the ensembles.... but the GFS EnkF shows a landfall in Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo, so I'll consider them outliers. Zihuatanejo? I'm confused-- cuz that's waaaay to the SE. I got the impression from the Discussion that it was showing something near Cabo Corrientes. Me confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 I'm really liking the way it's looking tonight-- much better than 24 hr ago. The convection is nicely centered now. And I'm loving the official forecast-- totally awesome-- but I'm a bit irked by some of these model hints Re: a sharp-N turn-- one so sharp that it misses the S coast of MX. It almost feels like a mirror-image of the Irene setup-- with Cabo Corrientes playing the role of Cape Hatteras. It's so irritating to worry about cyclones missing their landfall points-- grrr. Anyhoo, I'm leaving for PVR in the morning. Psyched to get there and settle in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Zihuatanejo? I'm confused-- cuz that's waaaay to the SE. I got the impression from the Discussion that it was showing something near Cabo Corrientes. Me confused. You are confusing EnKF with Ens (Ensembles)... the former is a experimental GFS which has performed well this season... and yes, it's way SE, a definite outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 You are confusing EnKF with Ens (Ensembles)... the former is a experimental GFS which has performed well this season... and yes, it's way SE, a definite outlier Oops, I didn't read it closely-- sorry. Has the EnKF done well on this side (in the EPAC)? So what's your best guess Re: landfall point? You still think Manzanillo-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Although the IR imagery doesn't look amazing, the 2 am PDT advisory indicates a core is building and the cyclone has strengthened-- with winds now up to 75 kt-- and more strengthening is expected. I freaked a little earlier this evening when some of the models shifted left-- but the Discussion was reassuring: the models are coming into better agreement Re: a SW MX landfall, and it seems the NHC is becoming increasingly confident Re: a landfall near Manzanillo. They're still calling for it to be a major (100 kt) at landfall. Leaving for the airport in a few hours. As the landfall timing has pushed back a little, it means I'm now getting there super-early. Oh, well. No harm in that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Although the IR imagery doesn't look amazing, the 2 am PDT advisory indicates a core is building and the cyclone has strengthened-- with winds now up to 75 kt-- and more strengthening is expected. I freaked a little earlier this evening when some of the models shifted left-- but the Discussion was reassuring: the models are coming into better agreement Re: a SW MX landfall, and it seems the NHC is becoming increasingly confident Re: a landfall near Manzanillo. They're still calling for it to be a major (100 kt) at landfall. Leaving for the airport in a few hours. As the landfall timing has pushed back a little, it means I'm now getting there super-early. Oh, well. No harm in that: Cat 3 even earlier than the previous forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Good luck..stay safe and get some awesome footage!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Nice Josh, this finally looks like a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I'm hoping for at least some daytime footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Jova is now an 80kt hurricane, and the latest advisory bumps the estimated intensity just a little bit to a peak of 105kts just before landfall. Little change in the track, which is forecasted to cross land very close to Manzanillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Hey, guys! What's up? Thanks for the well wishes. I'm in PHX, waiting to hop on a flight to PVR. I'm rather neurotically checking the IR imagery-- but mostly I'm cool with what I'm seeing. To kill time, I've been doing a super-close-up scan of the expected landfall zone on Google Maps-- the stretch of coastline between Cabo Corrientes and Manzanillo. There are lots of little bays and inlets, lots of small towns right on the coast. If the center comes ashore in that region-- as forecast-- I think there will be a great opportunity to really refine position and be very close to the coast. It could be kinda awesome if the pieces fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Hey Josh; good times, having the opportunity to follow your journey! Check out the hurricane of 1959; also occuring in October. The basic path is different but it takes the same general direction at landfall. A major problem was mudslides from the surrounding mountains and the dangers associated with homeless snakes and scorpions. Could happen again. Please give some thought to how you would drive back to an airport if vulnerable roads are blocked by mudslides. Something else to think about; the Manzanillo Bay could have blow out tides with spectacular views; assuming landfall just to the east of the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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