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Chasing JOVA


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Teaser- does that mean a full length DVD and 3XLT souvenir t-shirts are coming?

BTW, if you're obs get used in post-season reanalysis, especially if they go the full 100 knot route, that would make you an official rock star.

B)

Well, it would be awesome, but I'm not getting my hopes up. :D. I am really curious to hear what Dr. Landsea thinks Re: my analysis. He is really *the* authority on estimating the intensity of poorly-documented storms-- the reanalysis team has made an art form of this; they're like detectives piecing together crime scenes with only scraps of evidence-- so let's see what he says. He may end up telling me the analysis holds no water-- but I guess at least I'll learn something.

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Hey, guys! My footage of Hurricane Jova is live-- check it out!

Jova was a violent hurricane, and its wind core passed right over us. As ferocious as it was, the cyclone was quite small-- we didn't really experience heavy winds until the center was very near. The center passed just a few miles to our W at about 12:30 am CDT, and just after that, we were pounded particularly hard by the SE eyewall. All of the footage is time-stamped, and you'll notice the winds start to really pick up around 12:44 am, steadily building in ferocity to a roaring climax at 12:57 and 12:58 am CDT.

Enjoy!

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Really nice video. I got the feeling of a ferocious energetic vacuum; almost like

being near a black hole...everything being sucked towards the low pressure.

Frightening.

Thank you, Richard.

And, dude, it was scary. I don't emote while shooting video, but I was getting a little freaked. Re: the feeling of a vacuum, one thing I didn't mention is that my ears were popping quite a bit during the most violent gusts, and a dude I talked with the next day-- actually, the owner of that building where we sought shelter-- mentioned this as well.

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Meh, haters are goin' to hate. It looks like just a touch of dry air may have been ingested. Water temps are very supportive (30 C) all the way to the coast. I suspect Jova is still at least a 105kt cyclone. Let's give it a few hours before tossing it under the bus.

Hey, guys! My footage of Hurricane Jova is live-- check it out!

Jova was a violent hurricane, and its wind core passed right over us. As ferocious as it was, the cyclone was quite small-- we didn't really experience heavy winds until the center was very near. The center passed just a few miles to our W at about 12:30 am CDT, and just after that, we were pounded particularly hard by the SE eyewall. All of the footage is time-stamped, and you'll notice the winds start to really pick up around 12:44 pm, steadily building in ferocity to a roaring climax at 12:57 and 12:58 am CDT.

Enjoy!

Glad you were there on our behalf. The data collected and the footage are awesome. Jim was a great intercept partner for Jova and a cyclone you'll never forget...

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The wind is awesome, a person would probably fly instantly if put it in the middle of the road. I'm a little surprised there's not much debris flying around, because those are near 100kt winds probably at peak.

Ok, I must accept you delivered. Just wondering what a daylight intercept would have been...because as it is it's excellent. Good work Josh! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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I understand film/video footage of tornado debris has been used for a while to calculate wind speeds. (Google tornado and photometric) I wonder if advances in computers and the such would allow frame by frame tracking of individual rain drops, if someone was so inclined.

Probably a cost, not a technological ability, issue.

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Hey, guys! My footage of Hurricane Jova is live-- check it out!

Jova was a violent hurricane, and its wind core passed right over us. As ferocious as it was, the cyclone was quite small-- we didn't really experience heavy winds until the center was very near. The center passed just a few miles to our W at about 12:30 am CDT, and just after that, we were pounded particularly hard by the SE eyewall. All of the footage is time-stamped, and you'll notice the winds start to really pick up around 12:44 am, steadily building in ferocity to a roaring climax at 12:57 and 12:58 am CDT.

Enjoy!

Awesome!

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Neat hurricane you got there. Winds definitely over 100 mph reminded me of Jim Leonard's typhoon Omar video (which was a Cat 3 storm). BTW there's another reason why the pressure may rise faster on the back side of a storm and that's because the central pressure rises rapidly upon landfall as the storm weakens.

Steve

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Glad you were there on our behalf. The data collected and the footage are awesome. Jim was a great intercept partner for Jova and a cyclone you'll never forget...

:wub:

Thanks, Steve, for keeping the faith when the storm looked like crap. Yeah, Jova will go down as a surprise treasure in my chase portfolio.

The roar is incredible between 12:54 and 1:00 am, excellent video.

Hey, thanks, man. :)

P.S. Yeah, I was happy with the audio-- actually kind of surprised how much of it the videocam's tiny built-in microphone picked up. The technology these days is just amazing.

The wind is awesome, a person would probably fly instantly if put it in the middle of the road. I'm a little surprised there's not much debris flying around, because those are near 100kt winds probably at peak.

Ok, I must accept you delivered. Just wondering what a daylight intercept would have been...because as it is it's excellent. Good work Josh! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

:thumbsup:

This is a truly pleasant surprise to receive this kind of vindication from el exigente himself-- my severest critique. (I know you thought I was exaggerating Jova's severity in my initial report. :D)

Josh,

Truly awesome footage, as always!

Hey, thanks, Scott-- glad you liked it!

I understand film/video footage of tornado debris has been used for a while to calculate wind speeds. (Google tornado and photometric) I wonder if advances in computers and the such would allow frame by frame tracking of individual rain drops, if someone was so inclined.

Probably a cost, not a technological ability, issue.

It's funny you mentioned this-- I was wondering the exact-same thing, actually! Certainly there are people who could estimate the wind speeds doing a close, frame-by-frame analysis of the footage and the speed at which small objects/particles pass by. It would be interesting to know.

Awesome!

Thanks, Sean! :)

Great video...can't imagine going through a storm like that. When's the last time you intercepted a storm and you experienced this kind of wind intensity? '08?

Oh, that's actually some of the heaviest winds I've been in-- and it certainly kicks the butt of any of the 'canes that I chased in 2008 (Cat-1 Dolly, Cat-2 Gustav, Cat-2 Ike), 2009 (Cat-2 Jimena), or 2010 (Cat-2 Alex, Cat-3 Karl). Jova was waaaaaaay worse than all of these-- simply no comparison-- which is exactly what I find so mysterious about it. I can't help wondering: Why was a low-end Cat 2 so severe? Or, was it really a low-end Cat 2-- or perhaps something more?

Anyhoo, thanks-- I'm really glad you liked it. :)

Wow, that's some intense stuff around 12:57. Great video.

Hey, thanks, man! Yep, that is exactly where I think it peaks-- starting at that time things go really nuts for a good minute and a half.

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Neat hurricane you got there. Winds definitely over 100 mph reminded me of Jim Leonard's typhoon Omar video (which was a Cat 3 storm).

Cool, thanks, Steve-- glad you dug it! And thanks for the wind estimate-- I was actually wondering how an experienced eye like yours would perceive it. Some of the footage does kind of have a major-hurricane look to it, doesn't it?

BTW there's another reason why the pressure may rise faster on the back side of a storm and that's because the central pressure rises rapidly upon landfall as the storm weakens.

Steve

Ha! That is such a logical explanation-- it makes perfect sense. :lol: It's funny how we can overlook the simplest, most intuitive explanation sometimes.

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Yes some of the footage does look like major hurricane. Ironically, I was watching a video of Hurricane Georges last night and found a lot of the wind estimates were wildly exagerrated. I do, however, tend to be conservative on my wind estimates which is probably why I can get close to actual measured winds. About the commesnt about not being able to stand up in those winds you had. I was outside one night videotaping a Canyon wind event and was staggered by winds measured at 68 mph and at Dugway was really rocked by winds around 80 mph (which later peaked over 100 mph as measured by a sensor before it was taken out.) so there's no way I could stand up in 100 mph winds. I'm heavy set and when I was doing the videotaping could easily be described as a lard ass (I'm 70 pounds lighter now and still weigh arounf 225 pounds).

Steve

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Great footage Josh, and yes it does appear that the winds are more than that of a Cat2 hurricane. Playing devil's advocate here, perhaps its just you happened to get in the actual wind max of a Cat2 as opposed to other instances where you missed the wind max of other storms. I cant really tell what the exact windspeeds are but they look to be over 100 mph sustained with higher gusts. How did it compare to Wilma and Dean?

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Yes some of the footage does look like major hurricane. Ironically, I was watching a video of Hurricane Georges last night and found a lot of the wind estimates were wildly exagerrated. I do, however, tend to be conservative on my wind estimates which is probably why I can get close to actual measured winds. About the commesnt about not being able to stand up in those winds you had. I was outside one night videotaping a Canyon wind event and was staggered by winds measured at 68 mph and at Dugway was really rocked by winds around 80 mph (which later peaked over 100 mph as measured by a sensor before it was taken out.) so there's no way I could stand up in 100 mph winds. I'm heavy set and when I was doing the videotaping could easily be described as a lard ass (I'm 70 pounds lighter now and still weigh arounf 225 pounds).

Steve

Yeah, exaggerated wind estimates are a pet peeve of mine-- it's a rampant problem! Folks don't realize that even a true, low-end TS wind (sustained 35 kt) is really strong. As we discussed in the Rina thread, even the steady 25 kt with gusts over 30 that I measured in that system felt really vigorous. I'm just glad to get this video out there, so folks can see that Jim and I may have not been too far off in our estimate of the peak gusts.

P.S. When were you shooting that Canyon wind event? Was this something recent? You should post it! :)

Great footage Josh, and yes it does appear that the winds are more than that of a Cat2 hurricane. Playing devil's advocate here, perhaps its just you happened to get in the actual wind max of a Cat2 as opposed to other instances where you missed the wind max of other storms. I cant really tell what the exact windspeeds are but they look to be over 100 mph sustained with higher gusts. How did it compare to Wilma and Dean?

Thanks, man! You raise a good point, and I think that's definitely part of it-- that we hit the bull's-eye and got right in (or very close to) the wind max, whereas in previous Cat 2s, I just wasn't in that best part of the eyewall. That having been said, you also have to take into account that we were a couple of miles inland, and also not in a place with total open exposure-- there were trees, buildings, etc.-- so I have to wonder if the winds were even stronger right at the coast, and maybe a mile or two closer to the center, perhaps.

I was reviewing my Wilma footage the other day, and Jova's winds seem more violent compared with the parts of Wilma's core that I experienced. It's hard to compare with Dean, which peaked in the semi-darkness just around dawn, and for which I was shut up in a huge, concrete building. (As y'all know, I did not get in Dean's core-- got close but missed by a few miles.)

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Yeah, exaggerated wind estimates are a pet peeve of mine-- it's a rampant problem! Folks don't realize that even a true, low-end TS wind (sustained 35 kt) is really strong. As we discussed in the Rina thread, even the steady 25 kt with gusts over 30 that I measured in that system felt surprisingly strong. I am just glad to get this video out there, so folks can see that Jim and I may have not been too far off in our estimate of the peak gusts.

P.S. When were you shooting that Canyon wind event? Was this something recent? You should post it! :)

Thanks, man! You raise a good point, and I think that's definitely part of it-- that we hit the bull's-eye and got right in (or very close to) the wind max, whereas in previous Cat 2s, I just wasn't in that best part of the eyewall. That having been said, you also have to take into account that we were a couple of miles inland, and also not in a place with total open exposure-- there were trees, buildings, etc.-- so I have to wonder if the winds were even stronger right at the coast, and maybe a mile or two closer to the center, perhaps.

I was reviewing my Wilma footage the other day, and Jova's winds seem more violent compared with the parts of Wilma's core that I experienced. It's hard to compare with Dean, which peaked in the semi-darkness just around dawn, and for which I was shut up in a huge, concrete building. (As y'all know, I did not get in Dean's core-- got close but missed by a few miles.)

Undoubtedly they were stronger at the coast, but perhaps your elevation enhanced the winds by 5 kts or so? Not sure just raising points to consider. You probably won't know for sure until you get in the eyewall of a High-end 4 or 5, or hit the bullseye of a major. The fact that you said Jova felt worse then Wilma perhaps says something though (you were in the right front quad for that right?)

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Undoubtedly they were stronger at the coast, but perhaps your elevation enhanced the winds by 5 kts or so? Not sure just raising points to consider. You probably won't know for sure until you get in the eyewall of a High-end 4 or 5, or hit the bullseye of a major. The fact that you said Jova felt worse then Wilma perhaps says something though (you were in the right front quad for that right?)

Wilma had a huge RMW (over 40 n mi), and the highest winds were estimated to have occurred way, way S-- down near Cape Sable-- so no one except trees of the Everglades saw Wilma's max winds. :D

Re: hitting the true bull's eye of any hurricane... As I was discussing with Scott747, whether you hit the bull's eye depends on what your goal is. I've always made it my goal to punch the eye, and I've hit that bull's eye on almost every chase. But the issue there is that if you get in the eye, you usually won't get in the absolute wind max. With Jova, we were just right of the eye and therefore I think we may have hit the wind bull's eye. So I guess it's just a matter of what I want moving forward. I still like getting in the eye-- that is always cool and interesting, and I like getting a central-pressure reading-- so I don't know that I want to give up that goal on future chases.

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I must say that even if there may have been some minor enhancement from elevation that was downright gnarly footage.

Solid four stars!

Awesome, thanks. You've always been brutally honest about my videos, so this means a lot to me. :sun:

Wonderful footage, Josh! Very, very intense. Congrats!

:wub: Thanks, Jaine. I am so glad you liked it this much.

Wow, fantastic stuff, Josh! Really neat to get to see what you experienced down there!

Congrats on a very riveting chase! :thumbsup:

Hey, thanks, Justin. It's really fun to be able to bring the experience back with me like this. It's amazing what you can capture now, even with consumer-grade video equipment.

Amazing video! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif That looks like a hell of a ride...it sounds like there was a 747 parked out of view with the throttles wide open.

Great job and congrats on the awesome chase! pimp.gif

Hey, thanks, Cory! I'm glad the sound came through pretty well, because it was loud-- not just the roaring of the wind, but all of the clanging and knocking sounds-- of the sign against the roof, the metal door against my back (which was rattling like crazy), and so on.

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Wow Josh, it sounds like you are in a vacuum, or some kind of black hole sucking everything in towards the center. The sound was awe inspiring and the video looks like the wind is scouring everything down to nothing. Pretty amazing footage and audio, well done sir.

Actually, that's a pretty-good description of how it felt! It did seem like the wind was literally scouring the earth. Glad you liked it-- thanks for taking the time to check it out.

Now that's a hurricane!

:) Thanks, Turtle-- I thought you might like it. It felt worse than Wilma, honestly. (Of course, none of us felt Wilma's highest winds, which were spent over the Everglades on FL's SW coast.)

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Hey Josh,

I hope all is continuing to go well for you! I just got finished reviewing your excellent chase "teaser" and thought it was some of your best intercept footage, to date!:)

If I may, please allow me to share a few brief thoughts (my own best educated guess) concerning the likely intensity of hurricane (H) Jova's maximum winds at your intercept location. First, all of the available meterological data seems very consistent with the NHC's operational intensity of an 85 kt. category two classification for H Jova's landfall along the immediate coastline. From what little I've read online, as well as the damage pics and video footage you've provided, it too seems quite consistent with a "solid" category two maximum intensity (maybe even 90 knots along the immediate coastline), as well.

From what I understand, and read, you were positioned just a couple of nautical miles inland at an elevation of ~73 feet. Although you weren't positioned directly on the shoreline itself, it's fair to recognize that the increased elevation of your specific intercept location-as compared to the standard height of 33 feet above MSL-likely mitigated against the expected decrease in the maximum sustained 1-min. wind (MSW) that would otherwise have been expected, at your own intercept location. Another variable to be taken into consideration would be the openness of the terrain itself. If it wasn't open exposure, that would also play a part in the MSW you experienced-although peak 3-second gusts could still retain their direct landfall intensity.

Since so much of the estimation of the MSW likely experienced at your specific location will invariably rely upon a little more subjectivity than otherwise would've been the case, that too must be taken into consideration. To be more specific, there weren't any reliable measurements of the MSW taken over land. This significant lack of empirical data makes it very difficult to make a reasonably objective estimation of the MSW. I should also note that an accurate measurement of the MSW in any hurricane is difficult to obtain, in and of itself. That's why most NWS offices and companies responsible for performing post-storm damage surveys typically use an estimation of peak 3-second wind gusts, rather than trying to deduce the maximum 1-min wind speeds.

With all the aforementioned taken into consideration, I would suggest that it is more applicable, and likely far more accurate, if one were to determine a best estimate of the peak 3-second wind gusts experienced at a specific locality. In order to make this estimate, we are all limited by the lower visibility associated with a night-time landfall. That aside, the video footage you provided appears to support peak 3-second wind gusts exceeding 87 knots (100 mph). The aforementioned visibility issue makes it very problematic in trying to determine just how much higher those winds might've been. Based on the footage alone, it seems conceivable that the winds may have been comparable to the highest 3-second gusts we experienced in Everglades City during H Wilma. That being said, it's also possible that the maximum 1-minute wind may have even been slightly higher in Jova. Based upon my own intercepts over the years, I've noticed that winds associated with heavier rainfall appears visibly more intense, and even "feels" more intense, than that associated with less rainfall (aside from the concept that heavier rainfall helps bring stronger winds down to the surface). That's why making an accurate comparison between your Wilma chase footage (with very little precipitation in daylight hours) and that of Jova (with heavy precipitation in night-time conditions) is somewhat problematic.

Regardless of just how intense the winds actually were at your intercept location, it's fair to say that you made a VERY successful intercept, and one that appears to be at or very near the top of those you've encountered to date. As a result, you have every reason to be quite proud of the footage you captured!:)

~Tony

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