HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Well, it looks like this one might be for real. The latest forecast brings an 85-kt cyclone ashore near Puerto Vallarta Monday evening. Some unknowns in the forecast include 1) the degree of intensification and 2) the heading at landfall. Re: the former, there's some shear impinging on the system right now, but they think it'll let up to allow steady strengthening. The hurricane models make Jova quite strong before landfall. Re: track, some of the models are showing a left bend as the cyclone approaches the coast, bringing it ashore further N. Based on the current picture, I'm thinking to fly into GDL sometime Sunday, and then drive to the necessary coastal point. Jorge may be joining me-- he's considering it. (Please feel free to put peer pressure on him. Thx.) A small and interesting footnote: the current forecast for Irwin suggests a possible second hurricane impact in the same general area just three days after Jova blows through-- so it could be like a two-for-one deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Hell yes, about damned time for something worthwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Hell yes, about damned time for something worthwhile... Yeah, I'm feeling excited about this one. It looks like it could be a nice, clean, "red-meat" landfall: a strengthening cyclone, moving in a straight line in a strong steering flow, approaching the coast at a clean right angle, with plenty of room to adjust. None of that Irene-type bullsh*t with some slow-moving crap wobbling ashore, threatening to fish, etc. A real hurricane landfall for a change. Lord knows, it's been long enough. Thank God for Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Yeah, I'm feeling excited about this one. It looks like it could be a nice, clean, "red-meat" landfall: a strengthening cyclone, moving in a straight line in a strong steering flow, approaching the coast at a clean right angle, with plenty of room to adjust. None of that Irene-type bullsh*t with some slow-moving crap wobbling ashore, threatening to fish, etc. A real hurricane landfall for a change. Lord knows, it's been long enough. Thank God for Mexico. It also might actually be easy to get to the areas you need to, unlike some landfalls in Mexico, particularly on the Gulf/Caribbean side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I thought this might be coming. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 It also might actually be easy to get to the areas you need to, unlike some landfalls in Mexico, particularly on the Gulf/Caribbean side. Yep. There are lots of towns and coastal highways from Mazatlan all the way down to Acapulco. The region looks accessible and navigable-- unlike other areas of MX that I've chased in. The Baja Peninsula, Tamaulipas, and the S Yucatan Peninsula are all sparsely populated and just very tough chase turf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Enjoy! I think it is particularly exciting that within 3 days you could see two decent hurricane in or near the same spot. Definitely a rare and exciting event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The GFDL will not be overshadowed by the HWRF. Well, maybe just a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The GFDL will not be overshadowed by the HWRF. Well, maybe just a little... Solid cat 4 for both models ... pure met porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Solid cat 4 for both models ... pure met porn. Hopefully this porn is helping you to think logically about your upcoming decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Jorge is having heavy tingles. But he's fighting it. I don't know why. I'm trying to help him through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 The morning forecast from the NHC is totally hawt-- just a classic setup, showing a 100-kt cyclone racing ashore Monday night. But there are some nagging questions: * Landfall timing. That's a huge question, as there's an even, 72-hr spread in the models. * Landfall intensity. Some of the models, like the 12Z Euro, show some serious unraveling before landfall. For once, exact landfall location is not a concern. The cyclone will be broadsiding a large swath of coastline with plenty of towns and roads, and therefore plenty of room to adjust. Hawt. Latest thinking is to fly to PVR Sunday morning and take it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 The new (2 pm PDT) forecast now shows Jova approaching the coast with winds of 105 kt. Jorge is a little spooked by the pre-landfall weakening shown in the global models-- but, interestingly, the NHC's Discussion doesn't mention any of that. The track has been shifted a hair S, with the landfall closer to ZLO. It sure looks temptin'-- despite Jorge's negative, fozziebear attitude: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Go Jorge go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Hopefully you get a nice storm to chase and that no one is hurt or killed from it and that loss of property is minimal. The new (2 pm PDT) forecast now shows Jova approaching the coast with winds of 105 kt. Jorge is a little spooked by the pre-landfall weakening shown in the global models-- but, interestingly, the NHC's Discussion doesn't mention any of that. The track has been shifted a hair S, with the landfall closer to ZLO. It sure looks temptin'-- despite Jorge's negative, fozziebear attitude: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 18z GFS is slower, with landfall just N of Tecoman around 0-3z Tuesday... doesn't show an intense system, but upper level conditions look good the whole journey, so I would expect strengthening just prior to LF.. 12z Euro is almost exactly one day slower and just S of PVR (3z Wed). Consensus looks like a safe bet, Tue morning local time near Manzanillo. Intensity is a lot trickier, but I would be a bit surprised if it's not at least a Cat 2 (I'm guessing 90-95kts right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 Go Jorge go Thanks for the help. I need it with him! Hopefully you get a nice storm to chase and that no one is hurt or killed from it and that loss of property is minimal. Hey, thanks, man! 18z GFS is slower, with landfall just N of Tecoman around 0-3z Tuesday... doesn't show an intense system, but upper level conditions look good the whole journey, so I would expect strengthening just prior to LF.. 12z Euro is almost exactly one day slower and just S of PVR (3z Wed). Consensus looks like a safe bet, Tue morning local time near Manzanillo. Intensity is a lot trickier, but I would be a bit surprised if it's not at least a Cat 2 (I'm guessing 90-95kts right now) Glad to see you pulling out of your gloomy fozziebear mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 Jorge, I made hotel reservations at PVR and ZLO, so we're covered in the presumed landfall zone. I have until tarde de mañana () to cancel one of the reservations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Jorge would fly in, I assume? Good news... NOUS42 KNHC 071400WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1000 AM EDT FRI 07 OCTOBER 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCTOBER 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-129 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX TROPICAL STORM JOVA AT 9/1800Z NEAR 17.0N 108.8W 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TROPICAL STORM JOVA AT 10/1800Z NEAR 18.7N 106.7W. JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Well, it looks like this one might be for real. The latest forecast brings an 85-kt cyclone ashore near Puerto Vallarta Monday evening. Some unknowns in the forecast include 1) the degree of intensification and 2) the heading at landfall. Re: the former, there's some shear impinging on the system right now, but they think it'll let up to allow steady strengthening. The hurricane models make Jova quite strong before landfall. Re: track, some of the models are showing a left bend as the cyclone approaches the coast, bringing it ashore further N. Based on the current picture, I'm thinking to fly into GDL sometime Sunday, and then drive to the necessary coastal point. Jorge may be joining me-- he's considering it. (Please feel free to put peer pressure on him. Thx.) A small and interesting footnote: the current forecast for Irwin suggests a possible second hurricane impact in the same general area just three days after Jova blows through-- so it could be like a two-for-one deal. You may as well stick around for Irwin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 OK, so I officially made the decision to chase Jova like 10 minutes ago. What pushed me over the edge? This latest IR image: the deep convection looks like it's covering the center now and the system overall is looking more symmetric. I have this feeling it's about to blow, and I need to get the heck to Mexico ASAP! This is one of my favorite types of cyclones-- the October EPAC recurver-- and I have high hopes for this one after several years of OK-but-not-amazing chases. I just bought my plane ticket-- landing in PVR Sunday afternoon-- and I have hotel reservations in PVR and ZLO. P.S. Jorge unfortunately won't be joining me-- I think he's just a bit too tied up with work. Bummer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 sweet. going solo may mean a little less in storm dialogue but I am looking forward to this. good luck and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Excellent, will be monitoring this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 sweet. going solo may mean a little less in storm dialogue but I am looking forward to this. good luck and be safe! Excellent, will be monitoring this closely. Hey, thanks, guys. Of course, the moment I commit to chasing it, the new (2 am PDT) advisory indicates both the track and the intensity forecasts are becoming unpleasantly complex. I'm not liking that left hook late in the forecast period-- it could really complicate things. Grrrrrr. On the plus side, this latest track suggests a daytime landfall-- although I'm sure that'll change again, too, given all of the variables involved. Sometimes I don't know why I picked such an irritating passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Hey, thanks, guys. Of course, the moment I commit to chasing it, the new (2 am PDT) advisory indicates both the track and the intensity forecasts are becoming unpleasantly complex. I'm not liking that left hook late in the forecast period-- it could really complicate things. Grrrrrr. On the plus side, this latest track suggests a daytime landfall-- although I'm sure that'll change again, too, given all of the variables involved. Sometimes I don't know why I picked such an irritating passion. Are you sticking around for Irwin too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Josh: good luck with the adventure. Interesting that these EPAC systems lose strength if they take on an easterly component but it makes sense. It seems that your most obvious potentials for underperformance are -not finding passable roads in all important directions of travel -if Jova slows down even more -if Jova weakens rapidly as it approaches the coast due to dry air, friction with land, shear Here is and interesting visual, it seems NHC has hidden their good stuff behind a few less-than-obvious menu clicks: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/index.php?loop&large&basin=nh1&parm=pmsl#contents It sems to depict Jova maintaining intensity right on into the coastline. Note; if you click on "gusts" animation, the gusts are depicted to drop off a smidge just before reaching the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Good luck-- I enjoy your REAL TIME updates of things. As always, be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Jova is an awesome TC, I'd definitely considering chasing this. I don't know much about EPAC Climo, is this West-East track rare? Perhaps it is not as rare as the Hawaiian typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Jova is an awesome TC, I'd definitely considering chasing this. I don't know much about EPAC Climo, is this West-East track rare? Perhaps it is not as rare as the Hawaiian typhoon. Hawai'i has hurricanes, actually, on the East side of the DateLine. I do not think any Typhoon has ever crossed from West to East near Hawai'i, not sure if the name would change when it became a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 When I saw the forecasted track on Wunderground, the first thing I thought was, "I wonder if Josh will chase Jova" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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