PhillipS Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 WOO HOO! AGW saves all of humanity by staving off the next ice age and the extinction of mankind. Is a snarky response the best you can do to a serious comment? If so that's pathetic and speaks volumes to the emptiness of your case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 We're up around +.4- +.7 currently. And you are comparing temperatures to 6,000 years ago, inherently inferring that our ability to accurately assess the temps back then are sufficient to claim "rapidly and dramatically...." ?? I'm thinking that during the 60-80 centuries since then, we "missed" some "dramatics" in there, thus falsifying your above statement. Actually, LEK, your last sentence is a logical fallacy. Hypothetical unknowns can't falsify a theory. Only actual data can. Your correct that there is uncertainty in the paleoclimate record, but the fact that independent research teams, using a variety of data sets and analysis techniques, report consistent results should give honest skeptics confidence that the results are robust. Rejecting scientific research due to a gut reaction isn't science. The data we have today, in a number of scientific disciplines, supports the mainstream set of theories comprising AGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 For example, many in the dendro field believe that you cannot extract all the factors that affect trees other than temps as Briffa claims to have done in his bristlecone pine study. Yet, that is but one study that many use to claim we are the warmest in forever and we have a fever. Can you say with complete conviction that Briffa got it right, and is not wrong in his peer reviewed assertions? But the paleoclimate reconstructions that don't use the bristlecone pine series at all show the same long tern trends. Are you saying that all of the scientists are wrong in the same way, or are you claiming that there is a conspiracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Warming or cooling of the magnitude we are experiencing don't just happen out of the blue, they are caused by something unusual. They do happen however, usually it is thought on a regional basis more than globally. Something that might have global impact would likely to have come from the outside, like a meteor strike or a Grand Solar Minimum. You may be surprised at the resolution evident in the paleoclimate record. For example: SEE If we knew what caused the past variations in climate it might help us understand how the future will be effected. That's the "unknown" in this on-going debate. What triggered the ice age and how did we come out of it? It certainly wasn't any man-made influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 If we knew what caused the past variations in climate it might help us understand how the future will be effected. That's the "unknown" in this on-going debate. What triggered the ice age and how did we come out of it? It certainly wasn't any man-made influence. The recurrent ice ages and interglacial periods are best explained by changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. These Milankovitch cycles operate on time scales of tens of thousands to a 100,000 years and do not change with the frequency needed to explain current warming. However, over the periods of their overlapping cycles they periodically phase together to both enhance and reduce radiative forcing of climate. I belief the 100,000 year cycle of orbital obliquity currently dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 The recurrent ice ages and interglacial periods are best explained by changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. These Milankovitch cycles operate on time scales of tens of thousands to a 100,000 years and do not change with the frequency needed to explain current warming. However, over the periods of their overlapping cycles they periodically phase together to both enhance and reduce radiative forcing of climate. I belief the 100,000 year cycle of orbital obliquity currently dominates. what caused the LIA then? The MWP? The Roman Warm Period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 what caused the LIA then? The MWP? The Roman Warm Period? solar variations and volcanoes. existing understanding of solar and volcanic forcing do a decent job of explaining the MWP and LIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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