snowNH Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Is tip signaling a snow event day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Is tip signaling a snow event day 10? I don't think so, and it looks pretty hard to get one at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'd still like to see more N PAC ridging to get the real arctic cold in here, but a -NAO should help to press some seasonably cool weather into our area later in the month despite a -PNA...also we have to keep in mind that the weeklies at week 3 and 4 really start to lose skill...so you always have to take that last week especially with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I don't think so, and it looks pretty hard to get one at this time. Ok... I just didn't really understand what his post said today... if someone could explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'd still like to see more N PAC ridging to get the real arctic cold in here, but a -NAO should help to press some seasonably cool weather into our area later in the month despite a -PNA...also we have to keep in mind that the weeklies at week 3 and 4 really start to lose skill...so you always have to take that last week especially with a grain of salt. Is the optimum result for a monster storm to phase the Polar Vortex with the southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 Is the optimum result for a monster storm to phase the Polar Vortex with the southern stream? Well thats certainly one way to get a monster storm...it rarely happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Well thats certainly one way to get a monster storm...it rarely happens though. What are some past storms that did that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 What are some past storms that did that? 1978 1993 1992 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 What are some past storms that did that? March 2001, Feb 1978...more like large PV lobes phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'd still like to see more N PAC ridging to get the real arctic cold in here, but a -NAO should help to press some seasonably cool weather into our area later in the month despite a -PNA...also we have to keep in mind that the weeklies at week 3 and 4 really start to lose skill...so you always have to take that last week especially with a grain of salt. It's trying, but that is also a monster trough over the west coast of NAMR too. What do you make of those lower heights well to our se on week 3 and 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 It's trying, but that is also a monster trough over the west coast of NAMR too. What do you make of those lower heights well to our se on week 3 and 4? That def looks to be because the NAO goes negative. But it doesn't look that cold given the source region...maybe a bit below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 That def looks to be because the NAO goes negative. But it doesn't look that cold given the source region...maybe a bit below average. Hopefully it means a chance at some storminess, although it's kind of weird having that weak ridge in the Plains and Midwest. Rather short wavelengths. Western Canada looks like an icebox. Hopefully some of that can eventually slide east or break off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'd still like to see more N PAC ridging to get the real arctic cold in here, but a -NAO should help to press some seasonably cool weather into our area later in the month despite a -PNA...also we have to keep in mind that the weeklies at week 3 and 4 really start to lose skill...so you always have to take that last week especially with a grain of salt. 70/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Lemme guess, major event between the 26th and the 29th. It seems to be the rule this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Weeklies are out and they look cool for week 3 and 4 (Nov 22-Dec 5)...not overly cold, but a bit below average. We still do not have a good -EPO in the N PAC and a solidly -PNA....however, blocking in the Atlantic looks to ramp up later this month. It has a weak -NAO week 3 and then more robust in week 4. dont like this at all blech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Weeklies are out and they look cool for week 3 and 4 (Nov 22-Dec 5)...not overly cold, but a bit below average. We still do not have a good -EPO in the N PAC and a solidly -PNA....however, blocking in the Atlantic looks to ramp up later this month. It has a weak -NAO week 3 and then more robust in week 4. Hopefully it means a chance at some storminess, although it's kind of weird having that weak ridge in the Plains and Midwest. Rather short wavelengths. Western Canada looks like an icebox. Hopefully some of that can eventually slide east or break off. As I suspected, haha. I certainly agree with the Western Canada idea. With the Cold air building nicely across Eastern Siberia its longing to move further East towards on our side of the pole and it looks to do come W3. With that being said the -PNA should relax somewhat IMO, strengthening the Aleutian Ridge (typical in a Nina) and in turn this will induce a -EPO. If the EPO can go negative we can perhaps develop a Weak Blocking pattern across the Pacific and that may usher in some cold but I'm still going for a solid -NAO/-AO in the last week of November-early December, primarily EB but this should allow for the cold air to spill Eastwards with a suppressed SE Ridge anomaly by then, but basing on the MJO alone we should see a nice cold outbreak beginning around Nov 18th or so IMO and perhaps continuing depending where the MJO/GWO go beyond that. It looks like we nearing a solid -QBO phase at 30hpa. What are your thoughts guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Lemme guess, major event between the 26th and the 29th. It seems to be the rule this year. dont like this at all blech NAO flip in your future and moon tides FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Raleigh's wf was a good read, disagree on the se ridge and gradient pattern, I think its wagons north, and blocking is not as strong as last year, but the Atlantic is warm. Pete, Will, Brian and up fantastic winter, not to say others wont cash in, but I think more extreme temps this winter, more warmth mixed with the AOB. Should be a fun winter in Green Bay, we been spoiled on the south coast.....still should be a tick above normal snowfall even down here on the palmettos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 SOS incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 SOS incoming Seasonal change Will Sultan of Snow now in charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 Seasonal change Will Sultan of Snow now in charge. We still have some torch to get through before snow comes back into our forecast again...I like the blocking showing up in the Atlantic, but the Pacific looks kind of crappy in the long range and on the weeklies. It should cool down though enough for perhaps a snow threat in the last week of the month if the weeklies are correct. Hopefully we end up with more EPO ridging that they show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Seasonal change Will Sultan of Snow now in charge. We should have an over/under on how many threads Grandpa Juju starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 As I suspected, haha. I certainly agree with the Western Canada idea. With the Cold air building nicely across Eastern Siberia its longing to move further East towards on our side of the pole and it looks to do come W3. With that being said the -PNA should relax somewhat IMO, strengthening the Aleutian Ridge (typical in a Nina) and in turn this will induce a -EPO. If the EPO can go negative we can perhaps develop a Weak Blocking pattern across the Pacific and that may usher in some cold but I'm still going for a solid -NAO/-AO in the last week of November-early December, primarily EB but this should allow for the cold air to spill Eastwards with a suppressed SE Ridge anomaly by then, but basing on the MJO alone we should see a nice cold outbreak beginning around Nov 18th or so IMO and perhaps continuing depending where the MJO/GWO go beyond that. It looks like we nearing a solid -QBO phase at 30hpa. What are your thoughts guys? Well I think the Pacific will probably remain hostile for another 3 weeks at least. -NAO blocking may develop, but the pattern imo isn't all that conducive to getting cold much past the Great Lakes. It could be enough perhaps later in the month, but that's just speculation. The next 2 weeks sure look boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Well I think the Pacific will probably remain hostile for another 3 weeks at least. -NAO blocking may develop, but the pattern imo isn't all that conducive to getting cold much past the Great Lakes. It could be enough perhaps later in the month, but that's just speculation. The next 2 weeks sure look boring. That kind of cold air sometimes finds a way to sneak over here, at least to NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Well I think the Pacific will probably remain hostile for another 3 weeks at least. -NAO blocking may develop, but the pattern imo isn't all that conducive to getting cold much past the Great Lakes. It could be enough perhaps later in the month, but that's just speculation. The next 2 weeks sure look boring. I like when you get bored. What are the odds we bang yet another coastal at the next high tide moon. Actually looks like that will be prime time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Rumor has it Euro ens have really backed any -NAO and any coldness late month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Rumor has it Euro ens have really backed any -NAO and any coldness late month They still have a weak semblance of it, but the runs have varied as to how strong it will be. It still looks like we'll have a pretty strong -pna so that won't make things easy to get colder air in here. In the Pacific, a ridge tries to poke into the Aleutians, but nothing noteworthy just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 They still have a weak semblance of it, but the runs have varied as to how strong it will be. It still looks like we'll have a pretty strong -pna so that won't make things easy to get colder air in here. In the Pacific, a ridge tries to poke into the Aleutians, but nothing noteworthy just yet. Looks pretty mild and then maybe really boringly mundane around average by week 3 or so. Hopefully late month can look more interesting as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Rumor has it Euro ens have really backed any -NAO and any coldness late month same source that said you would be out of power 5-7 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Looks pretty mild and then maybe really boringly mundane around average by week 3 or so. Hopefully late month can look more interesting as we get closer. Yeah I agree..looks really boring other than the 10" of rain and 60mph winds Steve is calling for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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