Moving on to mid/late November

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like the first two weeks of November should feature solidly above avg temps with a lot of troughing out west and nothing to keep mild air out of this region. So after a monster preview of winter weather this past weekend....we'll get reintroduced back to mild fall weather for a while here. Looks like a transient cool shot this weekend but next week looks quite warm.

Ensembles show the possibility of a significant pattern change around mid-month, but we'll have to wait and see if that is rushed or even sticks on the ensemble guidance as we get closer.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Let me guess... Nov 16?

Joe, what time?

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the first two weeks of November should feature solidly above avg temps with a lot of troughing out west and nothing to keep mild air out of this region. So after a monster preview of winter weather this past weekend....we'll get reintroduced back to mild fall weather for a while here. Looks like a transient cool shot this weekend but next week looks quite warm.

Ensembles show the possibility of a significant pattern change around mid-month, but we'll have to wait and see if that is rushed or even sticks on the ensemble guidance as we get closer.

Yeah looks really mild at times next week for sure. This looks like it could be one of those delayed type deals where it may take until the end of the month.

[CoastalWx]

It's gonna take a while to get a pattern more conducive to winter, other than transient cold shots. Blocking looks to try and very slowly materialize, but nothing gets my attention at all right now. Could be a ho hum November. Sorry Pete.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's gonna take a while to get a pattern more conducive to winter, other than transient cold shots. Blocking looks to try and very slowly materialize, but nothing gets my attention at all right now. Could be a ho hum November. Sorry Pete.

yeah off to a boring and mild start it seems.

at least there is some pretty serious cold starting to show up in W Canada / parts of alaska toward days 7-10. maybe sets the stage for something more interesting down the road beyond mid-month

[CoastalWx]

yeah off to a boring and mild start it seems.

at least there is some pretty serious cold starting to show up in W Canada / parts of alaska toward days 7-10. maybe sets the stage for something more interesting down the road beyond mid-month

Yeah you get the sense of something maybe setting up towards the end of the month, but you know how it goes with the pattern change. Sometimes it takes forever to get it in here. I suppose some sort of transient cool shot can't be ruled out....but nothing long lasting it seems.

[CoastalWx]

Man there is some nice cold building on the GFS ensembles out in western and nw Canada.

[CoastalWx]

The end of the EC ensembles look like they would bring colder air in here beyond the 20th or so, but that's just a crude extrapolation. The pattern does try to improve slowly after mid month.

[Snowstorms]

The end of the EC ensembles look like they would bring colder air in here beyond the 20th or so, but that's just a crude extrapolation. The pattern does try to improve slowly after mid month.

Decent cold outbreak across the West later this week and next week and that should help build the snow cover across Canada as well as its been pretty pathetic this year.

As I've been saying for months now I expect the second half to be colder than the first half relative to normal that is across most of the East. With that being said I dont expect a quick cool down but a gradual cool down to below normal temp. anomalies with a decent chance of seeing a snow event across the East in the last 5-8 days of the month though the GFS IMO is too progressive with the cold coming in and I expect it to get pushed till around Nov 20th or so.

If anything it looks very similar to 2007 and 2008.

Whats your opinion on the pattern in late november-early december?

[CoastalWx]

Decent cold outbreak across the West later this week and next week and that should help build the snow cover across Canada as well as its been pretty pathetic this year.

As I've been saying for months now I expect the second half to be colder than the first half relative to normal that is across most of the East. With that being said I dont expect a quick cool down but a gradual cool down to below normal temp. anomalies with a decent chance of seeing a snow event across the East in the last 5-8 days of the month though the GFS IMO is too progressive with the cold coming in and I expect it to get pushed till around Nov 20th or so.

If anything it looks very similar to 2007 and 2008.

Whats your opinion on the pattern in late november-early december?

Well it's encouraging to see the end of the ensembles try to hint at some sort of a cooler pattern, but as of now...tough to tell if it will be long lasting, or just a transient one week period or something. I think usually if the pieces of the puzzle shift together at the end of the month..it usually bodes well for a 2-3 week period. However in 2008, I think the blocking relaxed before coming back late in the month again..so it's not a certainty. In either case, encouraging signs for the end of the month perhaps. The weeklies come out tomorrow and we'll see how they look. They hinted at this warmer period fairly well. The weeklies will also come out twice a week starting on the 14th.

[Typhoon Tip]

The end of the EC ensembles look like they would bring colder air in here beyond the 20th or so, but that's just a crude extrapolation. The pattern does try to improve slowly after mid month.

Not that long if you believe the 18z GFS... haha

Although, I'm a little taken by the fact that the mid levels are experiencing unusual cold temperatures for this time of year, unilaterally around the hemisphere.

I would also watch that event around 200 hours - may wedge out cooler should that 500mb center go underneath; counterbalancing confluence rolling through eastern Ontario would place a cold polar high N of Maine and several runs are really trying to trend that way. Have seen "high thickness" snow events up to 550 DM when such a feature drills partial thickness into the lower troposphere.

[CoastalWx]

Not that long if you believe the 18z GFS... haha

Although, I'm a little taken by the fact that the mid levels are experiencing unusual cold temperatures for this time of year, unilaterally around the hemisphere.

I would also watch that event around 200 hours - may wedge out cooler should that 500mb center go underneath; counterbalancing confluence rolling through eastern Ontario would place a cold polar high N of Maine and several runs are really trying to trend that way. Have seen "high thickness" snow events up to 550 DM when such a feature drills partial thickness into the lower troposphere.

Yeah I noticed that too on the GFS, but EC still yet to hint at that. Still far out, so who knows.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I noticed that too on the GFS, but EC still yet to hint at that. Still far out, so who knows.

The 18z GFS ensembles are a huge torch around D9-10 unlike the OP run. In fact, the OP run was further south with its 500mb height than any single GEFS member.

Probably will have to wait until late month...but we can always root for a little fluke in between. I wanted a big November event this year, but I got it a couple days early, lol. So I'll be satisfied with waiting until around Turkey Day....the snow pack becomes more sustainable by then anyway...esp after 12/1.

[CoastalWx]

The 18z GFS ensembles are a huge torch around D9-10 unlike the OP run. In fact, the OP run was further south with its 500mb height than any single GEFS member.

Probably will have to wait until late month...but we can always root for a little fluke in between. I wanted a big November event this year, but I got it a couple days early, lol. So I'll be satisfied with waiting until around Turkey Day....the snow pack becomes more sustainable by then anyway...esp after 12/1.

EC ensembles were a torch too, so I'm not buying the colder GFS op.

[ORH_wxman]

EC ensembles were a torch too, so I'm not buying the colder GFS op.

It will be interesting to see if the weeklies change the PAC pattern by later in the month. It looked like the ensembles were doign that at the end...maybe finally building up that Aleutian ridge and if we can get it spike up into the EPO region, then we could start having some fun again...esp if we can put up at least a mild -NAO in tandem with it.

[CoastalWx]

It will be interesting to see if the weeklies change the PAC pattern by later in the month. It looked like the ensembles were doign that at the end...maybe finally building up that Aleutian ridge and if we can get it spike up into the EPO region, then we could start having some fun again...esp if we can put up at least a mild -NAO in tandem with it.

Encouraging to see that. The last few years seemed to get the ball rolling during the end of November so hopefully it's on to something. This has the feeling of something that will take a little bit to establish as we will have a big trough carved out west first..then we have to wait for it to leak east. The weeklies were somewhat encouraging for the end of the month.

[ORH_wxman]

Encouraging to see that. The last few years seemed to get the ball rolling during the end of November so hopefully it's on to something. This has the feeling of something that will take a little bit to establish as we will have a big trough carved out west first..then we have to wait for it to leak east. The weeklies were somewhat encouraging for the end of the month.

Yeah the really large scale pattern changes tend to take longer than what the ensembles want to do. Its like last year when we had to keep telling Kevin that the change wouldn't happen by T-day but more like Dec 5th...the ensembles were a good 8-10 days too early on the regime change.

This current (now ending) cold snap with the storms was a transient MJO-induced +PNA...but the regime in the N PAC really didn't flip.

[weatherwiz]

After we go through this torch pattern, which looks quite impressive it almost looks like the pattern wants to setup to something similar to what we just saw which lead to the storm.

[ORH_wxman]

After we go through this torch pattern, which looks quite impressive it almost looks like the pattern wants to setup to something similar to what we just saw which lead to the storm.

I don't think so. It def looks colder, but its a totally diff regime (this past pattern was an MJO-induced +PNA)...it looks like the Aleutian ridge wants to flex its muscles FINALLY in the long range. When that happens it could spike up into the EPO region and cause an arctic dump into the CONUS. We also get a bit of a -NAO in that time on the ensembles or weeklies. I think they are rushing the change, but it seems to be coming.

Maybe by Turkey Day we will be having fun again.

[weatherwiz]

I don't think so. It def looks colder, but its a totally diff regime (this past pattern was an MJO-induced +PNA)...it looks like the Aleutian ridge wants to flex its muscles FINALLY in the long range. When that happens it could spike up into the EPO region and cause an arctic dump into the CONUS. We also get a bit of a -NAO in that time on the ensembles or weeklies. I think they are rushing the change, but it seems to be coming.

Maybe by Turkey Day we will be having fun again.

I agree this definitely looks colder and the potential is there for that. For one there is much more in the way of colder air building up across eastern Siberia which will be working into Alaska and western Canada.

What I just thought was similar looking was the orientation of the trough. Notice how the trough isn't really coming in from the Pacific or western US...it's building south and eastward from central Canada through the northern Plains...that's what looks similar to me. Perhaps the meteorological processes aren't similar. Looks like both the Arctic Jet and Subtropical jet stream will be continued strong as well. I think at some point during the month we should get the potential for another big storm (whether it be a rain or snow maker).

I agree models are likely rushing this change as well, usually always happens.

I wonder if we're seeing how the pattern may act for at least the first part of winter?

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't think so. It def looks colder, but its a totally diff regime (this past pattern was an MJO-induced +PNA)...it looks like the Aleutian ridge wants to flex its muscles FINALLY in the long range. When that happens it could spike up into the EPO region and cause an arctic dump into the CONUS. We also get a bit of a -NAO in that time on the ensembles or weeklies. I think they are rushing the change, but it seems to be coming.

Maybe by Turkey Day we will be having fun again.

...Some recent runs of the GFS have pegged that sector of the NE Pac as a plausible large scale mechanic -sure.

This could almost be a new thread, because I feel a white Thanks Giving is quite plausible. I also think the Euro operational run is over-doing it with the southern/SE ridging.

I am also interested in the fact that the AO sagged prior to this last event; it took a couple of weeks, but started around +2 and ended up at -1. It was in part why the end of October looked colder/stormier for me. We saw the mean band of the westerlies settle out in latitude by 10 degree ( ~ ) everywhere as that happened, and right on schedule there was build-up of cold thickness in the 50th parallel (give or take). The fact of that we had a storm is really kind of irrelevent - it merely availed of that lead large scale circumstance. In other words, we may have had a coastal whether there was cold available or not (if MJO-PNA related, who knows).

That AO status has risen some, but the weight of the members want more downward change in time. There is some mop-ended variance, but by and large all members beginning to show even more descent in the GFS cluster. It's an interesting issue ... The NAO domain is not really reflecting that AO's attempt to settle downward - for the time being that is; obviously those domains can have intra-weekly variability, and switch rather fast. Anyway, there are small pockets of non-descript blocking around and N of the 50th parallel, despite the NAO not currently indicating much. That is why I think that trough around 190-220 hours could have a cold rainy vibe to it, with some snow in the mountains (perhaps even colder), if things break right - the preceding concepts would supply a well-time polar high slipping by N.

Anyway, so the currently the NAO is slightly negative, but immediately mop-ends in the members, without about half going to +1, and the other half equally negative. That pretty much means limited or no coherent predictability using the ensemble mean NAO ( 33/33/33 chance it rises, falls, or stays relatively neutral). What is a big huge flag for me is that the EPO and the WPO have both suddenly crashed over at the CDC. These indices were stallwort stuck positive up through October 25th. The agency stopped computing on that date, but as of last night have resumed. Both index calculate a downward correction of ~ 1.5 SD; it is important to note that it is less important what the actual scalar ending value is in these teleconnectors, and vastly more important is the amount of total change (there is a paper in this!).

I disagree that the WPO is a meaningless teleconnector for our side of the globe. A negative WPO and a Phase 7/8 MJO positively re-inforces the MJO input, and can send massive R-wave signals down stream across the Pac; could wind up with impressive -EPO ridges when that happens; ding ding ding, phase 7/8 not impossible going forward (D10?), and low and behold the the EPO is dropping hard. (I wish the CPC did those Pac domains but as far as I am aware they do not).

Obviously runs like that cold, lunatic fringe 18z GFS run yesterday aren't more than entertaining for the time being, but I am fairly confident that as this cold season progresses these cold interludes increase in frequency more so than just seasonally directive.

[CoastalWx]

...Some recent runs of the GFS have pegged that sector of the NE Pac as a plausible large scale mechanic -sure.

This could almost be a new thread, because I feel a white Thanks Giving is quite plausible. I also think the Euro operational run is over-doing it with the southern/SE ridging.

I am also interested in the fact that the AO sagged prior to this last event; it took a couple of weeks, but started around +2 and ended up at -1. It was in part why the end of October looked colder/stormier for me. We saw the mean band of the westerlies settle out in latitude by 10 degree ( ~ ) everywhere as that happened, and right on schedule there was build-up of cold thickness in the 50th parallel (give or take). The fact of that we had a storm is really kind of irrelevent - it merely availed of that lead large scale circumstance. In other words, we may have had a coastal whether there was cold available or not (if MJO-PNA related, who knows).

That AO status has risen some, but the weight of the members want more downward change in time. There is some mop-ended variance, but by and large all members beginning to show even more descent in the GFS cluster. It's an interesting issue ... The NAO domain is not really reflecting that AO's attempt to settle downward - for the time being that is; obviously those domains can have intra-weekly variability, and switch rather fast. Anyway, there are small pockets of non-descript blocking around and N of the 50th parallel, despite the NAO not currently indicating much. That is why I think that trough around 190-220 hours could have a cold rainy vibe to it, with some snow in the mountains (perhaps even colder), if things break right - the preceding concepts would supply a well-time polar high slipping by N.

Anyway, so the currently the NAO is slightly negative, but immediately mop-ends in the members, without about half going to +1, and the other half equally negative. That pretty much means limited or no coherent predictability using the ensemble mean NAO ( 33/33/33 chance it rises, falls, or stays relatively neutral). What is a big huge flag for me is that the EPO and the WPO have both suddenly crashed over at the CDC. These indices were stallwort stuck positive up through October 25th. The agency stopped computing on that date, but as of last night have resumed. Both index calculate a downward correction of ~ 1.5 SD; it is important to note that it is less important what the actual scalar ending value is in these teleconnectors, and vastly more important is the amount of total change (there is a paper in this!).

I disagree that the WPO is a meaningless teleconnector for our side of the globe. A negative WPO and a Phase 7/8 MJO positively re-inforces the MJO input, and can send massive R-wave signals down stream across the Pac; could wind up with impressive -EPO ridges when that happens; ding ding ding, phase 7/8 not impossible going forward (D10?), and low and behold the the EPO is dropping hard. (I wish the CPC did those Pac domains but as far as I am aware they do not).

Obviously runs like that cold, lunatic fringe 18z GFS run yesterday aren't more than entertaining for the time being, but I am fairly confident that as this cold season progresses these cold interludes increase in frequency more so than just seasonally directive.

Well the MJO may try to send a weak signal into phase 7 or 8 down the road. It may be stuck in the circle of death, but some models want to bring some sort of a wave into region 7 or 8. This eventually would try to spike up PNA values down the road...all the while the NAO values slowly drop. The CPC NAO values slowly decline as does the PNA, however the EC ensembles actually try to raise the PNA value from a -2.5SD to a -1SD just after mid month. So, it is possible that perhaps near Thanksgiving or beyond, we may see more wintry type stuff down the road..but the caveat is how far out of course. This has the ear markings of a very slow process so as always Scooter flags and patience may be the key.

But you never know if mother nature tries to send a fluke our way. I'm speaking more in the way of long term changes.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well the MJO may try to send a weak signal into phase 7 or 8 down the road. It may be stuck in the circle of death, but some models want to bring some sort of a wave into region 7 or 8. This eventually would try to spike up PNA values down the road...all the while the NAO values slowly drop. The CPC NAO values slowly decline as does the PNA, however the EC ensembles actually try to raise the PNA value from a -2.5SD to a -1SD just after mid month. So, it is possible that perhaps near Thanksgiving or beyond, we may see more wintry type stuff down the road..but the caveat is how far out of course. This has the ear markings of a very slow process so as always Scooter flags and patience may be the key.

But you never know if mother nature tries to send a fluke our way. I'm speaking more in the way of long term changes.

:lol: but agree.

[TheCloser24]

These discussions between you meteorologists have been informative and very enjoyable to read.

[Snowstorms]

Well the MJO may try to send a weak signal into phase 7 or 8 down the road. It may be stuck in the circle of death, but some models want to bring some sort of a wave into region 7 or 8. This eventually would try to spike up PNA values down the road...all the while the NAO values slowly drop. The CPC NAO values slowly decline as does the PNA, however the EC ensembles actually try to raise the PNA value from a -2.5SD to a -1SD just after mid month. So, it is possible that perhaps near Thanksgiving or beyond, we may see more wintry type stuff down the road..but the caveat is how far out of course. This has the ear markings of a very slow process so as always Scooter flags and patience may be the key.

But you never know if mother nature tries to send a fluke our way. I'm speaking more in the way of long term changes.

Once into Phases 7/8/1 we should see the anomalies cooling across the East to below normal temperature anomalies from where they stand currently. With the models try to develop a Nice Aleutian Ridge by D10 or so and beyond we should start seeing a -EPO trying to develop. At this point I dont think the cold will come in as early as the GFS depicts but by Nov 21st-24th I personally belief much of East will experience near Winter like temperatures. Certainly the pattern thus far is behaving much like 2007 and 2008 with the Pacific starting to resemble a typical La Nina/-PDO pattern. I dont think the PNA will go positive like the EC ensembles depict but a near neutral PNA is plausible. How ever on the other side of the Pole we have a very negative and dominant -AAO which maybe correlated to the Chile Volcano Eruption this year.

Is there any correlation between the AAO and AO?

Certainty with the MJO/GLAAM and other teleconnection indices the way they are right now I'm suspecting a big storm across the EC in the last 5 days of November or within in the first 4-6 days of December. Certainly enough the warm-spell may end with a bang...may see some decent severe weather developing if conditions are favorable around Nov 14th-18th followed by what could be the first LES outbreak of the season.

We'll see but what are your thoughts on the big storm and the NAO/AO? I think we'll develop a nice EB -NAO confg. come Mid-late month and near neutral PNA/-EPO.

[ORH_wxman]

Scooter, what time do euro weeklies come out? I know its usually the evening some time.

[CoastalWx]

Scooter, what time do euro weeklies come out? I know its usually the evening some time.

Any minute now.

[ORH_wxman]

I updated the title of the thread....as it was still about October.

[ORH_wxman]

Weeklies are out and they look cool for week 3 and 4 (Nov 22-Dec 5)...not overly cold, but a bit below average. We still do not have a good -EPO in the N PAC and a solidly -PNA....however, blocking in the Atlantic looks to ramp up later this month. It has a weak -NAO week 3 and then more robust in week 4.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Weeklies are out and they look cool for week 3 and 4 (Nov 22-Dec 5)...not overly cold, but a bit below average. We still do not have a good -EPO in the N PAC and a solidly -PNA....however, blocking in the Atlantic looks to ramp up later this month. It has a weak -NAO week 3 and then more robust in week 4.

Average/below average. Good enough for me

A few weeks to shake off this weekend's fun then boom