CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I think alot of people need to get away from the wx for awhile. Myself included.Kind of sucks in here recently TBH Uconn tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I think alot of people need to get away from the wx for awhile. Myself included.Kind of sucks in here recently TBH I'm taking advantage of the benign weather to get the last of the season's concrete poured and to get as much exterior work done as possible. If you stay busy time flies and before you know it snow will be falling again. I personally don't worry about the weather 2-3 weeks out. It's just too far out and verification scores aren't good enough to warrant concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 He's talking about the whole N hemisphere pattern...in our backyards, we can see an abrupt flip to cold from torch or vice versa, but that means something has to be primed before that. In Dec 1989 the ball was rolling in the Arctic by about Dec 20-25...and made things ready to flip on a dime by the end of the month. We were still frigid between Dec 20-25, 1989, but things were changing up north already...the block was disintegrating and the EPO was weakening. I keep fixating on 1979-1980... any similarities with the current regime? Really, my only reasons are a couple of weird wx events that happened both in that year and in 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 He's talking about the whole N hemisphere pattern...in our backyards, we can see an abrupt flip to cold from torch or vice versa, but that means something has to be primed before that. In Dec 1989 the ball was rolling in the Arctic by about Dec 20-25...and made things ready to flip on a dime by the end of the month. We were still frigid between Dec 20-25, 1989, but things were changing up north already...the block was disintegrating and the EPO was weakening. Dec 89 was basically the Winter of 89-90 as the other 2-3 months were warm and featured below normal snowfall. I've analyzed a few analogues that had a similar Weather patterns and I found interesting results. Nov thru December I found 2007, 1970, 1971, 1975 and 1964 were best comparable matches. Dec 1949 can be included but it had a much different Pacific pattern in Nov thus it lead to cooler anomalies present across the East and warm anomalies across the West thanks to the +PNA that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 I keep fixating on 1979-1980... any similarities with the current regime? Really, my only reasons are a couple of weird wx events that happened both in that year and in 2011... The upcoming pattern does not bear much resemblance to late Nov and early Dec 1979...even though that was also a very warm period for our area. The PAC looks quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 The upcoming pattern does not bear much resemblance to late Nov and early Dec 1979...even though that was also a very warm period for our area. The PAC looks quite different. Thanks... I feel a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 The only thing deeper than the respective snowpacks of Pulaski, NY and Mount Mansfield will be the sne drifts of "who gives a fu**". lol this is one of the better posts I've seen lately. It is true though, this is a very IMBY forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 lol Your endless summer can stop anytime, haha. At noon today when I got out of a meeting it was 62F at our base area weather station on Mansfield at 1,650ft. That's gotta be close to a record high if we had reliable records for here given that Montpelier/MPV at almost 1,200ft hit a record of 65F. Not a lot of snowmaking happening with these temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Agreed. There's nothing about the pattern that argues for a reversal until week 3-4 at the earliest, so I'm not surprised to hear the Euro weeklies are largely pessimistic for the next month or so. MJO should be propagating through phase 3 by the end of November, and through phases 3-6 for the first half of December. By the latter part of that period, about Dec 10th-15th, is when I see everything coming together. Guidance out at d 10-15 is beginning to detect the westward retrograde of the PAC NW trough into the Gulf of Alaska, in conjunction with significant height rises over the NAO region. Once we have these two features established, we can finally get some sustained trough amplification into the Eastern US, but we're talking week 3-4 for full realization of this pattern. However, as I said in the NYC forum, I think the delay in timing will work in our favor, as the -NAO block period should now occur within a time frame more climatologically conducive to snowfall: Dec 15th-Jan 15th approximately. No one should be concerned about this winter yet; yes, the first couple weeks of December probably will be shot, but that's not a big deal for most us (usually not a snowy period anyway). For now, we'll be graced with a back and forth temp regime through Thanksgiving, basically a classic Nina regime - warm shot, cool down, rinse repeat (i.e. this week - 70F today, mid/upper 40s as highs by the end of the week, and back up early next week). +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Your endless summer can stop anytime, haha. At noon today when I got out of a meeting it was 62F at our base area weather station on Mansfield at 1,650ft. That's gotta be close to a record high if we had reliable records for here given that Montpelier/MPV at almost 1,200ft hit a record of 65F. Not a lot of snowmaking happening with these temps Are employees under contract there? Like are they still getting paid even though no work is being done right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Are employees under contract there? Like are they still getting paid even though no work is being done right now? Depends on what type of employee you are. During the holidays and busy season this place employs like 1,200 people but right now its a fraction of that. Of course, salaried folks get paid, as well as some of the hourly folks who need to be in preparing for the season to start. Even if its warm out and the start of the season is delayed (which is looking likely but a decision won't be made till Wednesday), there's obviously still a lot of prep work that goes into opening a ski resort for the season. A delayed opening means you just have more time to accomplish those things. Most of the seasonal staff though hasn't started and isn't scheduled to start until December anyway... we usually open with year-round staff members and a few key seasonal staff members as services and operations are usually quite bare-bones for the first couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wow the gloom is palpable. I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wow the gloom is palpable. I'm not worried. Jerry why did you flip? Your winter forecast seemed very reasonable, it could not be just because of a few burly squirrels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Jerry why did you flip? Your winter forecast seemed very reasonable, it could not be just because of a few burly squirrels I've simply never seen robust squirrels and a low snow winter. And this year they are maniacal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Depends on what type of employee you are. During the holidays and busy season this place employs like 1,200 people but right now its a fraction of that. Of course, salaried folks get paid, as well as some of the hourly folks who need to be in preparing for the season to start. Even if its warm out and the start of the season is delayed (which is looking likely but a decision won't be made till Wednesday), there's obviously still a lot of prep work that goes into opening a ski resort for the season. A delayed opening means you just have more time to accomplish those things. Most of the seasonal staff though hasn't started and isn't scheduled to start until December anyway... we usually open with year-round staff members and a few key seasonal staff members as services and operations are usually quite bare-bones for the first couple weeks. Do you have any radiant heat outdoor surfaces? Wa-Wa just put that in. Weird. And their new lift is coming along nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I suspect people's minds are made up but ... I was just looking over the snow data for the NH and it is really something... Winter is right there folks, just over the border in Canada, and all throughout Eurasia and much of Russia now under snow cover already. There is a lot of cold air along and N of the 50th parallel. I think the problem here is that folks aren't seeing the more typical pattern evolution supportive of bringing in the goods, so there's some hand throwing. But, just as the last 4 cycles of operational GFS are showing, just because you don't see the big height wall in the west, doesn't mean cold can't bleed in. Wouldn't take much for a icing event on the D10... fleeting as it were for the time being. I was looking at that 10-T anomalies product, which I have found to be fairly reliable in the past, and much of SE Canada is also in a negative anomaly, albeit modest comparative to the western Manatoba and points west, but negative nonetheless. The teleconnectors are hugely important but they are not the whole story. Looks like a 24 to 36 hour shot of cold....then alternating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I don't think we'll ever see snow again in our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I don't think we'll ever see snow again in our lives 1979...bank on it...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wouldn't take much for a icing event on the D10... fleeting as it were for the time being. Oh, yay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I don't think we'll ever see snow again in our lives endless torch winter coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 endless torch winter coming Low clouds, drizzle, and 55F every single day for the rest of our existence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Low clouds, drizzle, and 55F every single day for the rest of our existence London style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wow the gloom is palpable. I'm not worried. People antsy about getting winter started immediately. Might take a while at first, but the pattern the next 2-3 weeks is nasty. If it looks like this in 3 weeks..then it's a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I understand this is a snow board for the most part, but these numbers continue to be impressive. Does anyone have the site where I can see how we are stacking up to past warm met autumns region wide, I know Snowman21 in the past has updated, but we are nearing the end, and I was curious. If my calculations are correct, this will be the warmest fall for all SNE stations, except for BDL where it will be the 2nd warmest. In the case of BOS and ORH, it would break the old records by 1.1 (1975) and 1.2 (1953) degrees respectively which is pretty extreme considering the top 10 warmest falls are bunched together within a degree or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Oh, yay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 This fall is a complete torch. Aside from the absolute insanity of 10/29 and 10/30....there is still stuff that shouldn't be living or attached to trees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I remember 1975-76 in Boston for it's big cold and snow in mid January. Steve's Ice Cream had just opened in Somerville and one boreal night had a line of crazy hippies out the door. I could have been among them at 29 years of age. During the big snow which began on a Sunday evening, I walked into Harvard Square and stood there during some serious S++ at 3AM....the only living soul in Harvard Square. What a weenie I was! March that year featured another big snow event which I recorded in stages from the first flurries to the last flakes on 35 mm slide film. I'll scan it in some day to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 SSTs haven't budged in 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I suspect people's minds are made up but ... I was just looking over the snow data for the NH and it is really something... Winter is right there folks, just over the border in Canada, and all throughout Eurasia and much of Russia now under snow cover already. There is a lot of cold air along and N of the 50th parallel. I think the problem here is that folks aren't seeing the more typical pattern evolution supportive of bringing in the goods, so there's some hand throwing. But, just as the last 4 cycles of operational GFS are showing, just because you don't see the big height wall in the west, doesn't mean cold can't bleed in. Wouldn't take much for a icing event on the D10... fleeting as it were for the time being. I was looking at that 10-T anomalies product,which I have found to be fairly reliable in the past, and much of SE Canada is also in a negative anomaly, albeit modest comparative to the western Manatoba and points west, but negative nonetheless. The teleconnectors are hugely important but they are not the whole story. Looks like a 24 to 36 hour shot of cold....then alternating. This one? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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