Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 You know the drill, we do it every year lol. Let's revisit this in 2 weeks, I would almost bet that things look much, much better. Its hard not to get down, but its weather and we have zero control, would be nice to cool things down for the holidays though, I stand behind my beliefs for a switch in early December and a decent snow month especially inland. Keep the faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Its hard not to get down, but its weather and we have zero control, would be nice to cool things down for the holidays though, I stand behind my beliefs for a switch in early December and a decent snow month especially inland. Keep the faith If we see this in 3 weeks....then you can be down. Hopefully people can understand that. With all the crap about winter locking in on the 20th when no model said that and people calling for +10-+15 temp departures when again...nobody said that, it's easy for people to think we are somehow cancelling winter. There has been a lot of garbage in here...stuff that might confuse some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 wow it is a torch outside, nearly 70F on november 14 blistering heat, good thing the sun angle was low today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'm not saying they are accurate, but they fit some of the overall indices that we are seeing now, and week 3 seems to be in decent agreement if you look at the end of the euro ensembles. I know they can change, I just mentioned some posts back that they shift around. They are also a 1 week average so they can't account for a rogue snow event or what have you. Every Met knows not to take them verbatim. Obviously that type of extended guidance must be viewed skeptically, but it should not be automatically dismissed, either....especially when its' overall conceptualization fits within the grand scheme of things and there are other factors which lend creedence to it. This seems to be one of those instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 If we see this in 3 weeks....then you can be down. Hopefully people can understand that. With all the crap about winter locking in on the 20th when no model said that and people calling for +10-+15 temp departures when again...nobody said that, it's easy for people to think we are somehow cancelling winter. There has been a lot of garbage in here...stuff that might confuse some people. This is very nasty and I am sincerely upset by this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 This is very nasty and I am sincerely upset by this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 This is very nasty and I am sincerely upset by this I laugh at your posts too, but it gets incessant at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Doesn't get better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Obviously that type of extended guidance must be viewed skeptically, but it should not be automatically dismissed, either....especially when its' overall conceptualization fits within the grand scheme of things and there are other factors which lend creedence to it. This seems to be one of those instances. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The Euro weeklies would be supported by the MJO if they pan out....since the MJO looks like it will be in a state favorable for warmth for early December. No guarantee the MJO wave stays strong enough enough to be an influence, but if it did, it certainly supports the warmth. Hopefully we see it cycle to phase 6 pretty quickly which is more favorable for cold. Agreed. There's nothing about the pattern that argues for a reversal until week 3-4 at the earliest, so I'm not surprised to hear the Euro weeklies are largely pessimistic for the next month or so. MJO should be propagating through phase 3 by the end of November, and through phases 3-6 for the first half of December. By the latter part of that period, about Dec 10th-15th, is when I see everything coming together. Guidance out at d 10-15 is beginning to detect the westward retrograde of the PAC NW trough into the Gulf of Alaska, in conjunction with significant height rises over the NAO region. Once we have these two features established, we can finally get some sustained trough amplification into the Eastern US, but we're talking week 3-4 for full realization of this pattern. However, as I said in the NYC forum, I think the delay in timing will work in our favor, as the -NAO block period should now occur within a time frame more climatologically conducive to snowfall: Dec 15th-Jan 15th approximately. No one should be concerned about this winter yet; yes, the first couple weeks of December probably will be shot, but that's not a big deal for most us (usually not a snowy period anyway). For now, we'll be graced with a back and forth temp regime through Thanksgiving, basically a classic Nina regime - warm shot, cool down, rinse repeat (i.e. this week - 70F today, mid/upper 40s as highs by the end of the week, and back up early next week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 If we see this in 3 weeks....then you can be down. Hopefully people can understand that. With all the crap about winter locking in on the 20th when no model said that and people calling for +10-+15 temp departures when again...nobody said that, it's easy for people to think we are somehow cancelling winter. There has been a lot of garbage in here...stuff that might confuse some people. If someone held a gun to my head right now, I'd probably be pretty confident we are waiting until Dec 10th before any flip in the longwave pattern. Hopefully we can cash in on a transient air mass before that, but I do not see any constant -EPO or a +PNA before that and the NAO blocking looks pretty non-existent. There's certainly a positive side to this though....if the rubber band snaps around mid-month, then its better climo-wise to cash in on the pattern change. I think a lot of people come to expect snow the first week of December on the coastal plain and that is a product of being lucky the last several Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I laugh at your posts too, but it gets incessant at times. So does constant caution posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 If someone held a gun to my head right now, I'd probably be pretty confident we are waiting until Dec 10th before any flip in the longwave pattern. Hopefully we can cash in on a transient air mass before that, but I do not see any constant -EPO or a +PNA before that and the NAO blocking looks pretty non-existent. There's certainly a positive side to this though....if the rubber band snaps around mid-month, then its better climo-wise to cash in on the pattern change. I think a lot of people come to expect snow the first week of December on the coastal plain and that is a product of being lucky the last several Decembers. True, we have been spoiled big time. I think the longer wait expectations are going to win out as usual. I'm hoping for maybe a 1st week in December tease of winter wx for some of us, but probably not until the 2nd week or even longer before a true change. If you look at the whole pattern..it's not something as simple as saying..."oh we just need some blocking." The whole pattern from Asia through Greenland needs to change. That does not happen overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 If someone held a gun to my head right now, I'd probably be pretty confident we are waiting until Dec 10th before any flip in the longwave pattern. Hopefully we can cash in on a transient air mass before that, but I do not see any constant -EPO or a +PNA before that and the NAO blocking looks pretty non-existent. There's certainly a positive side to this though....if the rubber band snaps around mid-month, then its better climo-wise to cash in on the pattern change. I think a lot of people come to expect snow the first week of December on the coastal plain and that is a product of being lucky the last several Decembers. C'mon Will, stealin my ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 It is pretty classic how we push back the change. It always happens, but the models have really been killing the -NAO and rebuilding the -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 C'mon Will, stealin my ideas. Lol, I actually just saw your thread after you responded the first time. I'm not positive we flip in mid-month. I hope we do, but it doesn't have to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Keep the PNA negative, but with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 True, we have been spoiled big time. I think the longer wait expectations are going to win out as usual. I'm hoping for maybe a 1st week in December tease of winter wx for some of us, but probably not until the 2nd week or even longer before a true change. If you look at the whole pattern..it's not something as simple as saying..."oh we just need some blocking." The whole pattern from Asia through Greenland needs to change. That does not happen overnight. Yep. Not just one thing stacked against us. Almost need to reshuffle the whole deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yep. Not just one thing stacked against us. Almost need to reshuffle the whole deck. Yeah who knows...could be the 1st week or closer to Christmas...but it needs to reshuffle big time. For sustained stuff..I tend to agree with Isotherm and Will..maybe closer to mid month or longer for sustained stuff. Hopefully a bonus advisory event for some in the beginning of the month. The more I look at things, the more stable the pattern is for the time being. As usual, it doesn't mean something can't sneak underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Keep the PNA negative, but with this. Done, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yeah who knows...could be the 1st week or closer to Christmas...but it needs to reshuffle big time. For sustained stuff..I tend to agree with Isotherm and Will..maybe closer to mid month or longer for sustained stuff. Hopefully a bonus advisory event for some in the beginning of the month. The more I look at things, the more stable the pattern is for the time being. As usual, it doesn't mean something can't sneak underneath us. A watched pot never boils. Winter will move in, it's inevitable. Lots o' hand wringing in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 True, we have been spoiled big time. I think the longer wait expectations are going to win out as usual. I'm hoping for maybe a 1st week in December tease of winter wx for some of us, but probably not until the 2nd week or even longer before a true change. If you look at the whole pattern..it's not something as simple as saying..."oh we just need some blocking." The whole pattern from Asia through Greenland needs to change. That does not happen overnight. It did in Dec 1989..from very cold to torch and it happened very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I laugh at your posts too, but it gets incessant at times. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 We're getting far into the long range here so there's obviously a ton of inconsistency, but if you wanted to see the textbook "first signs" on a changing pattern, loop the height anomalies below from the 18z GEFS. Notice the retrograding negative height anomalies over the Western US. By the end of the run they end up in the GOA. We're also building positive height anomalies over Western Greenland, the Davis Straight, and Central Canada by the tail end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I think alot of people need to get away from the wx for awhile. Myself included.Kind of sucks in here recently TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 It did in Dec 1989..from very cold to torch and it happened very quickly Easier to flip to a torch when you have a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 We're getting far into the long range here so there's obviously a ton of inconsistency, but if you wanted to see the textbook "first signs" on a changing pattern, loop the height anomalies below from the 18z GEFS. Notice the retrograding negative height anomalies over the Western US. By the end of the run they end up in the GOA. We're also building positive height anomalies over Western Greenland, the Davis Straight, and Central Canada by the tail end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html I still would like to see a better EPO to really dump colder air into Canada since it's pretty tepid stuff, but it is a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I think alot of people need to get away from the wx for awhile. Myself included.Kind of sucks in here recently TBH Lol...comfortably numb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 It did in Dec 1989..from very cold to torch and it happened very quickly He's talking about the whole N hemisphere pattern...in our backyards, we can see an abrupt flip to cold from torch or vice versa, but that means something has to be primed before that. In Dec 1989 the ball was rolling in the Arctic by about Dec 20-25...and made things ready to flip on a dime by the end of the month. We were still frigid between Dec 20-25, 1989, but things were changing up north already...the block was disintegrating and the EPO was weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Lol...comfortably numb? Sort of.. When people start hurtling ill intended insults at each other it's probably time to step away. Again, myself included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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