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Moving on to mid/late November


ORH_wxman

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Who cares...I think expecting anymore significant snow for the rest of this month is a pipedream.

November is all done I think. I'm thinking we bounce up and down until mid December at this point at which time winter will be decided. It either starts to dig in and we get a tough 45 days of brutal weather or we fester on the other side of the law of averages.

Spring like today.

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The +EPO pattern on the 8-10 day anomaly maps is remarkable... an absolute classic torch outside of the west coast. Coupled with a nasty +NAO it's hard to get excited about much through 11/25 or 11/26 at the very earliest.

By the end of the run by day 15 the Euro ensembles begin to offer some hope. +EPO pattern remains and there's not a whole lot of cold in southern Canada but we begin to see some changes in the north Atlantic with the NAO trying to tick back to negative and the -PNA from hell beginning to relax.

Up until that point the pattern is a torch... whether we are +5 or +15 in the dailies remains to be seen.

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I hope to see our pattern changing storm in the plains showing up in the long range GEFS by Thanksgiving. This would give enough time for the usual delay ... putting it around the 14-15th. This times perfectly with the MJO wave moving through Indonesia ... forcing for RWD building ridging over the Aleutians. All the energy locked up over Alaska and western Canada dumps into the plains. Maybe a rain to snow deal, or solid overrunning event depending on the NAO and pressures to our north. Either way, we get cold for the second half of the month

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The +EPO pattern on the 8-10 day anomaly maps is remarkable... an absolute classic torch outside of the west coast. Coupled with a nasty -NAO it's hard to get excited about much through 11/25 or 11/26 at the very earliest.

By the end of the run by day 15 the Euro ensembles begin to offer some hope. +EPO pattern remains and there's not a whole lot of cold in southern Canada but we begin to see some changes in the north Atlantic with the NAO trying to tick back to negative and the -PNA from hell beginning to relax.

Up until that point the pattern is a torch... whether we are +5 or +15 in the dailies remains to be seen.

sounds awesome.

frisbees...t-shirts...convertibles driving with the tops down...your station doing live shots from the park interviewing people about how nice it is to have a mild thanksgiving day.

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I hope to see our pattern changing storm in the plains showing up in the long range GEFS by Thanksgiving. This would give enough time for the usual delay ... putting it around the 14-15th. This times perfectly with the MJO wave moving through Indonesia ... forcing for RWD building ridging over the Aleutians. All the energy locked up over Alaska and western Canada dumps into the plains. Maybe a rain to snow deal, or solid overrunning event depending on the NAO and pressures to our north. Either way, we get cold for the second half of the month

1993esque. Ride that pony till she throws you.

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sounds awesome.

frisbees...t-shirts...convertibles driving with the tops down...your station doing live shots from the park interviewing people about how nice it is to have a mild thanksgiving day.

lol can't wait to eat my turkey in shorts and a t shirt.

Not sure what Kevin is even talking about anymore lol.

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sounds awesome.

frisbees...t-shirts...convertibles driving with the tops down...your station doing live shots from the park interviewing people about how nice it is to have a mild thanksgiving day.

If we can get a few cold days around Thanksgiving it gives more credence to 1993. That was the year of the Leon Lett play in Dallas. ...can't remember the specifics...lol.

By late in the first week of December, we were torching big time and I was nearly in tears (closer to Kevin's age then....). We then had some violent swings before the hammer finally dropped more or less for good right after Christmas.

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Anymore? Its been a Kevin/litchfield wishcast for days now

I have no idea why you keep using my name azzwipe, but I am certainly not nor have been calling for anything remotely cold besides a transient cool down until December, and yes I think December is a great month, especially for the interior. If you have not figured out that I am Mr Torch this autumn, then I dont know what to tell you, no go have a meltdown somewhere and enjoy the torch and historically warm met fall

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I hope to see our pattern changing storm in the plains showing up in the long range GEFS by Thanksgiving. This would give enough time for the usual delay ... putting it around the 14-15th. This times perfectly with the MJO wave moving through Indonesia ... forcing for RWD building ridging over the Aleutians. All the energy locked up over Alaska and western Canada dumps into the plains. Maybe a rain to snow deal, or solid overrunning event depending on the NAO and pressures to our north. Either way, we get cold for the second half of the month

It's gonna be a while I think....at least for something more sustainable. At least some "hints" are starting to show up.

Last year in December, the MJo went through phase 4-5 and came through phase 7, but it was weak.

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Meh, I'm still seeing huge run to run mass field discontinuities in the ensemble mean its self, of both for that matter.

I'm still thinking we're looking at more noise than usual right now.

More noise meaning more inconsistencies because of the transition from fall to winter right?

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The fall of 1960 was warm..as a matter of fact..early December was a torch..then a week later a classic blizzard..the rubber band broke

12/4/60...neary 70F

12/11/60......2 foot blizzard with temps hovering around 10F for the event. Burned in my weenie brain forever....a victory because it started slowly...snowed for 6 hours before we booked an inch. But the secondary explosively intensification produced quite the bomb. NYC had 1 inch from 3-9PM (I was in NJ burbs). Up to 3 inches by midnight and over a foot by 6AM with old school measuring techniques. Snowed hard till around Noon. A few days later it got mild and the pattern finally set in for good right after New Years.

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12/4/60...neary 70F

12/11/60......2 foot blizzard with temps hovering around 10F for the event. Burned in my weenie brain forever....a victory because it started slowly...snowed for 6 hours before we booked an inch. But the secondary explosively intensification produced quite the bomb. NYC had 1 inch from 3-9PM (I was in NJ burbs). Up to 3 inches by midnight and over a foot by 6AM with old school measuring techniques. Snowed hard till around Noon. A few days later it got mild and the pattern finally set in for good right after New Years.

Might have been my first weenie memory. Dad shoveling snow to get in and work on our New House just before Christmas, then a Easter storm?61?

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Might have been my first weenie memory. Dad shoveling snow to get in and work on our New House just before Christmas, then a Easter storm?61?

I don't remember the Easter storm but it may have been rain where I was growing up and snow up here in SNE.

2/4/61 was the end of the pattern....snowed as hard as it possibly could for 18 hours.....some of the best snow growth I've ever seen...you could literally see the snow accumulating if you looked outside for more than a minute.

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12/4/60...neary 70F

12/11/60......2 foot blizzard with temps hovering around 10F for the event. Burned in my weenie brain forever....a victory because it started slowly...snowed for 6 hours before we booked an inch. But the secondary explosively intensification produced quite the bomb. NYC had 1 inch from 3-9PM (I was in NJ burbs). Up to 3 inches by midnight and over a foot by 6AM with old school measuring techniques. Snowed hard till around Noon. A few days later it got mild and the pattern finally set in for good right after New Years.

Wow just checked NESIS and 1960-1961 had 3 KU storms, including the #5 ranked KU storm on Feb 2 to Feb 5, 1961

Here's the storm that Jerry was talking about....

19601211-19601213-4.53.jpg

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I don't remember the Easter storm but it may have been rain where I was growing up and snow up here in SNE.

2/4/61 was the end of the pattern....snowed as hard as it possibly could for 18 hours.....some of the best snow growth I've ever seen...you could literally see the snow accumulating if you looked outside for more than a minute.

Here's that storm...

19610202-19610205-7.06.jpg

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