CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 They are cooler for the Sunday torch for those that are so worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 They are cooler for the Sunday torch for those that are so worried. Useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Useless. I know, but apparently a couple of people simply can't deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I know, but apparently a couple of people simply can't deal with it. It would really salvage the month if we could knock that impending 66* day down to 61*...phew!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I know, but apparently a couple of people simply can't deal with it. yeah...the Rev, Ct Blizz, and Kevin Wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 yeah...the Rev, Ct Blizz, and Kevin Wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 It would really salvage the month if we could knock that impending 66* day down to 61*...phew!! We laugh but to me the generally overcast since Noon and the early darkness at least makes it seem somewhat like November. But yeah.....47 and dank doesn't cut it for me either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 yeah...the Rev, Ct Blizz, and Kevin Wood. LOL. We now know the reason why Kevin is so worried, is because he thinks winter is only Dec-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 We laugh but to me the generally overcast since Noon and the early darkness at least makes it seem somewhat like November. But yeah.....47 and dank doesn't cut it for me either... at least the sun angle is low. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 at least the sun angle is low. LOL. Still thinking maybe near the first week of December it may try to flip cold, but again...it could be transient. You can still see that trough trying to retrograde a bit and raise heights out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Traditionally, but it hasn't really worked out that way over the course of the past several years.....at least as far as jackpotting is concerned. Ray, I think we'll get a late blooming Miller B in the first half of December that jackpots you to Dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL. We now know the reason why Kevin is so worried, is because he thinks winter is only Dec-Feb. yeah true. and the other thing is, last year was the winter of his life...he'll never get to make those piles in his driveway so ridiculous again...so it's all sort of downhill from there. and seeing this doesn't help his mental well being: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Ray, I think we'll get a late blooming Miller B in the first half of December that jackpots you to Dryslot Why is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Jesus, look at those storms out in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 at least the sun angle is low. LOL. Pretty soon even the sun will turn on us, and we'll have to look at day 15 ensembles to see if the pattern's favorable for a low sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 yeah true. and the other thing is, last year was the winter of his life...he'll never get to make those piles in his driveway so ridiculous again...so it's all sort of downhill from there. and seeing this doesn't help his mental well being: Thats terrible, Looks like a pair of boobs with the left one bigger then the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Heights are defintely trying to rise out west with a more GOA low now, but southern Canada is still rather mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Ray, I think we'll get a late blooming Miller B in the first half of December that jackpots you to Dryslot Dec 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 They are cooler for the Sunday torch for those that are so worried. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Why is that No changes from my winter outlook. The ridging in the southeast will shift more toward the southern Plains, with a negative NAO developing. However, we still maintain this huge trough over Alaska and western Canada, which produces a very tight gradient across the Northwest into the central Plains. Disturbances amplify into the Pacific northwest then break / dampen through the northern Plains followed by a reamplification of the PV anomaly as it tracks into the Northeast where gradients are weaker ... "baggier" trough. So we get late blooming Miller B type systems south of Cape Cod. Probably nothing huge, but enough for appreciable snowfall in eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 AWT Yep looks like 60 instead of 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yep looks like 60 instead of 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yep looks like 60 instead of 70. Gonna be a chilly week next week leading up to the turkey tickling your tushie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 No changes from my winter outlook. The ridging in the southeast will shift more toward the southern Plains, with a negative NAO developing. However, we still maintain this huge trough over Alaska and western Canada, which produces a very tight gradient across the Northwest into the central Plains. Disturbances amplify into the Pacific northwest then break / dampen through the northern Plains followed by a reamplification of the PV anomaly as it tracks into the Northeast where gradients are weaker ... "baggier" trough. So we get late blooming Miller B type systems south of Cape Cod. Probably nothing huge, but enough for appreciable snowfall in eastern New England Would like to see more of an Aleutian ridge, but if that indeed is the case, we'll need the blocking. It certainly is stable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Gonna be a chilly week next week leading up to the turkey tickling your tushie First time I'm hosting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Still thinking maybe near the first week of December it may try to flip cold, but again...it could be transient. You can still see that trough trying to retrograde a bit and raise heights out west. yeah the 12z gefs starts to shift things around toward the very end of the (run) month...start to see some higher heights building into the Davis region and the trough out west re-orients itself - actually has the largest height anomaly in NA in the western parts of Davis Strait beyond day 14... the 00z run did the same but kept a noticeable + anomaly in the SE but the 06 and 12z runs have backed off of that so maybe there's some hope there...if canada isn't torched maybe the cold dumps east and south a bit. minimally it would look like a more seasonable pattern if it materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 No changes from my winter outlook. The ridging in the southeast will shift more toward the southern Plains, with a negative NAO developing. However, we still maintain this huge trough over Alaska and western Canada, which produces a very tight gradient across the Northwest into the central Plains. Disturbances amplify into the Pacific northwest then break / dampen through the northern Plains followed by a reamplification of the PV anomaly as it tracks into the Northeast where gradients are weaker ... "baggier" trough. So we get late blooming Miller B type systems south of Cape Cod. Probably nothing huge, but enough for appreciable snowfall in eastern New England yeah i tend to agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Would like to see more of an Aleutian ridge, but if that indeed is the case, we'll need the blocking. It certainly is stable for now. I'm thinking that evolves later in December ... after about the 15th. Definitely a more "comfortable" pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 yeah the 12z gefs starts to shift things around toward the very end of the (run) month...start to see some higher heights building into the Davis region and the trough out west re-orients itself - actually has the largest height anomaly in NA in the western parts of Davis Strait beyond day 14... the 00z run did the same but kept a noticeable + anomaly in the SE but the 06 and 12z runs have backed off of that so maybe there's some hope there...if canada isn't torched maybe the cold dumps east and south a bit. minimally it would look like a more seasonable pattern if it materialized. Yeah I don't see a violent cold switch at first, but maybe more seasonable or so..like you said. I'm just not impressed with anything I see at the moment, but there are hints at some shuffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'm thinking that evolves later in December ... after about the 15th. Definitely a more "comfortable" pattern for us. I feel pretty good about January, which probably goes with your thinking too. It's the first half or so of December where I think we're a little unsure right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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