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Moving on to mid/late November


ORH_wxman

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I'm going to throw this in. When I was growing up, December WAS winter month with each year producing at least moderate and often heavy snows. Look up the late 1950s through the early 70s. We're in a similar pattern now.

Oh I know...I've looked them up. I'm referring to the last 20-30 years around here. The phrase "N&W of Rt 128" used to make me want to rip my eardrums out when I was a kid. That was the theme back then, in December.

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We are going to have a March 2001 one of these days. This is not normal.

At least in this decadal pattern we're in..Decembers are wintry and March's are not. This is why we need Dec to start and finish cold and snowy. if we lose Dec. we only have 2 months to make hay..and if one of those month's blows balls..we're cooked..Spring and warmth are now standard in March

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Those of you with SV or similar, loop the NHEM ensemble mean H5. Then stop it and drag your mouse across beginning with 6 hours. It allows comparisoin of 6,132,258,384. Big time changes in central Asia AND the Pacific. We're getting there. Changes day to day are subtle but clearly there is movement.

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Those of you with SV or similar, loop the NHEM ensemble mean H5. Then stop it and drag your king kong long dong across screen with 6" being the minimum. It allows comparisoin of 6,132,258,384. Big time changes in central Asia AND the Pacific. We're getting there. Changes day to day are subtle but clearly there is movement.

:lightning:

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At least in this decadal pattern we're in..Decembers are wintry and March's are not. This is why we need Dec to start and finish cold and snowy. if we lose Dec. we only have 2 months to make hay..and if one of those month's blows balls..we're cooked..Spring and warmth are now standard in March

I don't think it will continue. I wouldn't be shocked if Feb or March is closer to normal in 2012, maybe even better. I don't expect it per se, but the pattern of lousy Feb/Mar will snap violently at some point.

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At least in this decadal pattern we're in..Decembers are wintry and March's are not. This is why we need Dec to start and finish cold and snowy. if we lose Dec. we only have 2 months to make hay..and if one of those month's blows balls..we're cooked..Spring and warmth are now standard in March

With a 12/1 bday, I'm acutely aware of December's start. It's almost always mild but in good years it's rocking by the 10-15th. That's all I want.

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Oh I know...I've looked them up. I'm referring to the last 20-30 years around here. The phrase "N&W of Rt 128" used to make me want to rip my eardrums out when I was a kid. That was the theme back then, in December.

LOL...weenies all have the same stories.

it's like remembering when you used to know exactly what was on TWC at what minute in the hour...

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The SNE region is defintely in two camps. There are the Bob-Scott(messenger)-Phil zone and then there is the interior including Ray-Will-Kevin and GC. Subtleties aside...more or less those areas either do well or don't do well given a storm track. I'm in this weird zone where at times I can benefit from each, but last year I was more with the interior folks. Had no business getting that much snow.

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I can't find the thread but basically the verification scores suggest the CFS is useless....no better than a coin flip.

although I generally agree Jerry, this is a link to the CFS forecast from the first 10 days in NOV, 2010

note how it was picking up strongly on the blocking (see 200mb and 700mb maps) and the below normal temps across the US

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/201011/index.html

the only reason for my concern, unlike other years, is that DEC-FEB are right on top of us and the CFS is going to have to be really, really wrong over a 3-month period for things to turn out anything like any of us want

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LOL...weenies all have the same stories.

it's like remembering when you used to know exactly what was on TWC at what minute in the hour...

I had six channels to weenie out on, when I was a kid. Brockton had both PVD and BOS channels. It was heaven. I knew almost exactly when each would do weather. Channel 6 with John Ghiorse was usually first at like 6:13pm.

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The SNE region is defintely in two camps. There are the Bob-Scott(messenger)-Phil zone and then there is the interior including Ray-Will-Kevin and GC. Subtleties aside...more or less those areas either do well or don't do well given a storm track. I'm in this weird zone where at times I can benefit from each, but last year I was more with the interior folks. Had no business getting that much snow.

Actually Ray sometimes can benefit even if the Cape does well too.

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The SNE region is defintely in two camps. There are the Bob-Scott(messenger)-Phil zone and then there is the interior including Ray-Will-Kevin and GC. Subtleties aside...more or less those areas either do well or don't do well given a storm track. I'm in this weird zone where at times I can benefit from each, but last year I was more with the interior folks. Had no business getting that much snow.

I'd call my area the "pseudo interior".....or interior cp. There are some events like that Oct freak and Dec 1996 that expose me and distinguish the interior outties from the innies.

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I'd call my area the "pseudo interior".....or interior cp. There are some events like that Oct freak and Dec 1996 that expose me and distinguish the interior outties from the innies.

Yeah you sometimes fall into both categories. What I mean is that for the Cape/se mass to do well..usually the interior takes a hit..sometimes including you. Likewise if the interior does well, Cape/se mass....even me sometimes takes a hit.

It makes for interesting times around here and it comes out in the posts sometimes. I'll always hope that area does well, because I grew up there and know that it can be a b**ch sometimes for a big snowfan, but some of the biggest storms have occurred there too. In the mean time, I find myself wanting BOS to cash in as well, now that I live here. I didn't necessarily feel that way in my first year for some reason, despite me being a winter guy.

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Yeah you sometimes fall into both categories. What I mean is that for the Cape/se mass to do well..usually the interior takes a hit..sometimes including you. Likewise if the interior does well, Cape/se mass....even me sometimes takes a hit.

It makes for interesting times around here and it comes out in the posts sometimes. I'll always hope that area does well, because I grew up there and know that it can be a b**ch sometimes for a big snowfan, but some of the biggest storms have occurred there too. In the mean time, I find myself wanting BOS to cash in as well, now that I live here. I didn't necessarily feel that way in my first year for some reason, despite me being a winter guy.

What I have noticed about my area is that I seldom jackpot because I am caught in "no man's land" with regard to the issue of interior vs coast, however I seldom get violently screwed, either.....at the end of the season, I'll usually end up with a decent total...slow and steady as she goes, but no real headline grabbers along the way.

I need ideal placement of the cf in order to jackpot the vast majority of the time....it's usually either the ORH hills\GC, or I smoke cf exhaust and you and\or Messenger, Bob are nude.

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The SNE region is defintely in two camps. There are the Bob-Scott(messenger)-Phil zone and then there is the interior including Ray-Will-Kevin and GC. Subtleties aside...more or less those areas either do well or don't do well given a storm track. I'm in this weird zone where at times I can benefit from each, but last year I was more with the interior folks. Had no business getting that much snow.

To me Ray lives on the coast.. if you're within 2o miles of the water that to me is the coast..maybe he's farther inland than that i don't know

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Euro def. continues with the idea of no torch again next week. Cools us down into the 40's Thurs and Fri..50ish over the weekend a bit milder Sunday and then another fropa early next week.

Also has the system farther south than it did for middle of next week..Temps look to be in the 40's overall next week. Interesting that the next storm came south again. We may be able to sneak something in

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