Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Lets not forget that it doesn't mean no snow. We can easily get something to sneak up after Thanksgiving...we are just speaking about a long term change...something that lasts longer than 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 looked at the overnight models brutal What in the world is so brutal....that it's going to be 62 instead of 45...Christ, not that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Euro weeklies do And they weren't good. Hopefully the ones later on today are better. I don't take weeks 3-4 verbatim since they sometimes are unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Lets not forget that it doesn't mean no snow. We can easily get something to sneak up after Thanksgiving...we are just speaking about a long term change...something that lasts longer than 2 weeks Classic Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Caution, careful..don't want to go against the grain..caution, throw the flags..dry hump the indices..caution caution. +10 to +15 continues into 2nd wek of Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Caution, careful..don't want to go against the grain..caution, throw the flags..dry hump the indices..caution caution. +10 to +15 continues into 2nd wek of Dec Whoever knew that well above normal snowfall throughout 75% of the region would create so much angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 No model run goes out to mid December unless you are looking at that clown CFS model that runs out like a year in advance. no one wants to look at the monthly maps if it is anywhere close to being right, DEC is the only cold month, and average or just below at best rest of the winter torches and is dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 That's what I'm afraid of. But, nobody wants to hear it and instead, break out d10 op progs. I certainly hope it doesn't wait until then, but I wouldn't be shocked. In my head, I was thinking maybe 1st week of December for something credible, but I could see a switch back to warmer weather afterwards before perhaps..something more sustainable. what i'm not a fan of is looping through 2+ weeks of north america ensemble plots and *essentially* seeing the same pattern reload, reload, reload. of course, the pattern doesn't have to become a solidly below normal one temp-wise to be wintry (though i think that helps a lot in december) once we get deeper into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Caution, careful..don't want to go against the grain..caution, throw the flags..dry hump the indices..caution caution. +10 to +15 continues into 2nd wek of Dec Who is saying that. Why are you being so delusional? Just because we don't have a "pattern change", doesn't mean you can't get snow in December. Hopefully for your sake, and the safety of your family..it comes sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Whoever knew that well above normal snowfall throughout 75% of the region would create so much angst. It's November..a cold month..we should be seeing signs of a cold Dec setting up..Finally the op models are going that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 what i'm not a fan of is looping through 2+ weeks of north america ensemble plots and *essentially* seeing the same pattern reload, reload, reload. of course, the pattern doesn't have to become a solidly below normal one temp-wise to be wintry (though i think that helps a lot in december) once we get deeper into the season. It won't take much to help out...just weaken the -PNA and squish the se ridge a few hundred miles and it would be ok. The way that AK trough is aligned with an extension to the se...it is promoting a se ridge. With no blocking..we risk going to the warmer side. If we kept that -PNA...all we need is for an Aleutian high to develop and dump the cold from the NW Territories into the US, but I don't see the teleconnections in Asia helping out right now. Key is...right now. There are subtle signs that heights want to rise near the Aleutians at the end of the EC ensembles, but it's a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hopefully that threat next week can sag to the south...just enough to give Will ice and Kevin a 33F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Who is saying that. Why are you being so delusional? Just because we don't have a "pattern change", doesn't mean you can't get snow in December. Hopefully for your sake, and the safety of your family..it comes sooner. Yeah we don't need sustained cold to get snow once we start rolling through December, esp for the interior....but all else equal you'd rather have it. Right along the coast would like to see the cold a bit more. Dec '96 and '97 both saw sizable snow events despite being warm months....ditto December 1998 for Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Over the course of the past several years, its also been easy to lose sight of the fact that December is not traditionally a very snowy month in these parts, either......winter can still rage on if the majority of the region sees ~10", as opposed to the anomalous 20-35" of the past several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Which direction does that toaster move in? That is the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 One of the good things about living in New England is that you can still get wintry precipitation with above normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 One of the good things about living in New England is that you can still get wintry precipitation with above normal temperatures. One good storm in December and we have our monthly mean snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Over the course of the past several years, its also been easy to lose sight of the fact that December is not traditionally a very snowy month in these parts, either......winter can still rage on if the majority of the region sees ~10", as opposed to the anomalous 20-35" of the past several. exactly. until the second half of this decade, i always looked to after xmas for sustained cold/snow. we've had some stretches of bitter cold over the last several decembers...and prolonged cold snaps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 exactly. until the second half of this decade, i always looked to after xmas for sustained cold/snow. we've had some stretches of bitter cold over the last several decembers...and prolonged cold snaps too. I know it. I'm not used to these ridiculous Decembers that we have been having. I used to look at December as a transition month in this area. However, it also used to snow in March...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 no one wants to look at the monthly maps if it is anywhere close to being right, DEC is the only cold month, and average or just below at best rest of the winter torches and is dry I can't find the thread but basically the verification scores suggest the CFS is useless....no better than a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 exactly. until the second half of this decade, i always looked to after xmas for sustained cold/snow. we've had some stretches of bitter cold over the last several decembers...and prolonged cold snaps too. Back in the day growing up, I'd be just chilln' in my Starter Pull-over jackets not expecting much snow until after xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Folks need to give up on this idea that March is a wintry month..in this new climate we live in..winters start earlier(or should) and end earlier. It's not a coincidence that the last 5 March's have sucked dongs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I know it. I'm not used to these ridiculous Decembers that we have been having. I used to look at December as a transition month in this area. However, it also used to snow in March...lol. yep. probably doesn't ring as true for the interior folks but it was always a bonus to see something prior to NYE. decembers have been pretty kind of late for the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Back in the day growing up, I'd be just chilln' in my Starter Pull-over jackets not expecting much snow until after xmas. That hasn't changed except now it's a yellow BUM equipment sweatshirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Remember that we are due for some regression to the mean regarding the monthly distribution of snowfall, too....Decembers are due to suck and Marchs are ready to rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I know it. I'm not used to these ridiculous Decembers that we have been having. I used to look at December as a transition month in this area. However, it also used to snow in March...lol. I'm going to throw this in. When I was growing up, December WAS winter month with each year producing at least moderate and often heavy snows. Look up the late 1950s through the early 70s. We're in a similar pattern now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Folks need to give up on this idea that March is a wintry month..in this new climate we live in..winters start earlier(or should) and end earlier. It's not a coincidence that the last 5 March's have sucked dongs We are going to have a March 2001 one of these days. This is not normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Back in the day growing up, I'd be just chilln' in my Starter Pull-over jackets not expecting much snow until after xmas. LOL. Nice. black & gold with a giant "B" on the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Folks need to give up on this idea that March is a wintry month..in this new climate we live in..winters start earlier(or should) and end earlier. It's not a coincidence that the last 5 March's have sucked dongs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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