CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Dec '08 I've heard mentioned as an analog which sort of follows the mid month snowy period, followed by a warm up, then crash near NY. That's sort of how it goes with the whole flip in things like the NAO and EPO. I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 there's a lake-effect snow event that is kinda sneaking up for thursday on the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Exactly..although I think closer to 1st week December, but either way..not sooner rather than later. I think we are all on a similar page with that. Obviously exact details are impossible right now. Just don't see much in the next two weeks. And even the op Euro is warm. Not the all out torch from yesterday but it isn't below normal much over the next 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 And even the op Euro is warm. Not the all out torch from yesterday but it isn't below normal much over the next 10-14 days. yeah it's still pretty meh for the time being. i don't see anything overly promising in that run. i guess you could argue that after day 10 it would maybe cool down some? but whatever. LOL. this is backyard BBQ weather right here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. All too many times this scenario plays out. Good snows before Christmas, followed by the Christmas eve (or thereabouts) rain storm to wipe most if not all of it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 All too many times this scenario plays out. Good snows before Christmas, followed by the Christmas eve (or thereabouts) rain storm to wipe most if not all of it away. For once, it would be nice to just have a cold, but dry day...even if we don't have snow OTG. There is something not right with a 55F rainstorm on the 24th or 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 And even the op Euro is warm. Not the all out torch from yesterday but it isn't below normal much over the next 10-14 days. Thurs-Sat this week look solidly below normal..esp for daytime highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 not to be debbie but in terms of the index game, the pattern actually gets a bit worse before it shows any signs of getting better. hopefully toward the first few days of december some of the extreme height departures have relaxed a bit and allowed for a turn to a more seasonal look? maybe not cold but at least a pattern that's not +10F by day and +15F by night. the PNA is just off-the-charts suck right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Thurs-Sat this week look solidly below normal..esp for daytime highs unfortunately it probably yields about a 36 hour window of AOB normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 unfortunately it probably yields about a 36 hour window of AOB normal temps 2 days in the low-mid 40's with wind and nights in the 20's is all I want this time of year. And then maybe Sat warms up to 50ish..then if the Euro is right we cool right back down again early next week..Much better than what was being thrown at us yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 2 days in the low-mid 40's with wind and nights in the 20's is all I want this time of year. And then maybe Sat warms up to 50ish..then if the Euro is right we cool right back down again early next week..Much better than what was being thrown at us yesterday. thursday night and friday look chilly. at least fall-like and not late september-ish like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 For once, it would be nice to just have a cold, but dry day...even if we don't have snow OTG. There is something not right with a 55F rainstorm on the 24th or 25th. Agreed. Even better would be some snow otg before Christmas, and seasonable temps following, but NO rain pattern. I don't mind it being above freezing after is snows as per seasonal temps, but the 50's and rain suck the wind right out of my already over extended, over priced holiday fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 looked at the overnight models brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I don't really understand why people are getting upset with the long range forecasts. Last year the first major snow was boxing day which is 6 weeks from now. Its only 11/14 and people are Tobin Diving. Will said it would be a god awful 2-3 week stretch. Things are going as planned. Transient Cold for a month like Will said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 looked at the overnight models brutal Big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 I don't really understand why people are getting upset with the long range forecasts. Last year the first major snow was boxing day which is 6 weeks from now. Its only 11/14 and people are Tobin Diving. Will said it would be a god awful 2-3 week stretch. Things are going as planned. Transient Cold for a month like Will said Hopefully its only a 2-3 week bad stretch...it doesn't cost us a whole lot in mid November, but it could definitely last right into the first half of December. The MJO is forecasted to be in phase 3 going into phase 4 as we enter December...that's a warm pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 maybe a crude example but not exactly the line-up you want to face...kind of shows what we are up against for the time being. and some of the associated height anomalies are pretty stable and noteworthy...ie...not weak. but, better now than in the middle of january. EPO Current/forecast: What that looks like: MJO Per EC ENS package: What that looks like (note sorta jumps phase 1 and 2 and moves into 3): AO Current/Forecast: +AO looks like: PNA Current/Forecast: Some chart I grabbed off the internets: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hopefully its only a 2-3 week bad stretch...it doesn't cost us a whole lot in mid November, but it could definitely last right into the first half of December. The MJO is forecasted to be in phase 3 going into phase 4 as we enter December...that's a warm pattern for us. , The pacific is just horrible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 BUT...the modeling improves in the long range with each run. Something's happening. What it is not exactly clear. There's a man with a gun over there....telling me...snow or beware... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 12z GFS is certainly trying to bring winter back up here next week, To bad its at hr 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 maybe a crude example but not exactly the line-up you want to face...kind of shows what we are up against for the time being. and some of the associated height anomalies are pretty stable and noteworthy...ie...not weak. but, better now than in the middle of january. EPO Current/forecast: .. What that looks like: .. MJO Per EC ENS package: .. What that looks like (note sorta jumps phase 1 and 2 and moves into 3): ... AO Current/Forecast: ... +AO looks like: .. PNA Current/Forecast: ... Some chart I grabbed off the internets: ... I get the suspicion this is all transition season-related and probably won't verify that way. If the dailies took advantage of that converged teleonnector suite, we'd be talking days pushing 80F in a record breaking festival of eeriness. Dramatic prose aside, it doesn't really make a whole heck of a lot of sense to drill the NH Hemisphere into a cooker like that because we already see a tremendous amount of colder N of the 55th parallel, pretty much everywhere, and the whole purpose here is the transport of heat N, cold south. That teleconnector package doesn't really achieve any of that. Hm. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 On the other hand, Ha - tough to argue against this statement: " For the U.S., the combination of La Nina and the enhanced phase of the MJO co-located over the MC region favors ridging over the central north Pacific and downstream troughing across the western CONUS which may be especially amplified as compared to normal La Nina conditions. This is indicated by nearly all numerical model guidance. " I think it would be really interesting if the NAO fell off because than you'd have a huge wild card to contend with. Meh, I'm happy for the time being; this is great Disk Golf weather! I nailed a 60 twice this last summer. Par is 58, so so close, but it gets difficult when there is snow on the ground. Edit: Actually, that was part of the November 7 discussion - it is now the 14th, so a full week has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 BUT...the modeling improves in the long range with each run. Something's happening. What it is not exactly clear. There's a man with a gun over there....telling me...snow or beware... Yeah something is up..I think we're seeing subtle hints at first and then it won't be so subtle...of modelling starting to pick up on a quicker pattern change. It always starts with the ops..and then the ensembles follow a day or 2 later. I think the warm model runs we had been seeing into middle December are starting to do an abrupt 180. Think too much focus is being put on the indices ..as is usually the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yeah something is up..I think we're seeing subtle hints at first and then it won't be so subtle...of modelling starting to pick up on a quicker pattern change. It always starts with the ops..and then the ensembles follow a day or 2 later. I think the warm model runs we had been seeing into middle December are starting to do an abrupt 180. Think too much focus is being put on the indices ..as is usually the case No model run goes out to mid December unless you are looking at that clown CFS model that runs out like a year in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 No model run goes out to mid December unless you are looking at that clown CFS model that runs out like a year in advance. Euro weeklies do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hopefully its only a 2-3 week bad stretch...it doesn't cost us a whole lot in mid November, but it could definitely last right into the first half of December. The MJO is forecasted to be in phase 3 going into phase 4 as we enter December...that's a warm pattern for us. That's what I'm afraid of. But, nobody wants to hear it and instead, break out d10 op progs. I certainly hope it doesn't wait until then, but I wouldn't be shocked. In my head, I was thinking maybe 1st week of December for something credible, but I could see a switch back to warmer weather afterwards before perhaps..something more sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I get the suspicion this is all transition season-related and probably won't verify that way. If the dailies took advantage of that converged teleonnector suite, we'd be talking days pushing 80F in a record breaking festival of eeriness. Dramatic prose aside, it doesn't really make a whole heck of a lot of sense to drill the NH Hemisphere into a cooker like that because we already see a tremendous amount of colder N of the 55th parallel, pretty much everywhere, and the whole purpose here is the transport of heat N, cold south. That teleconnector package doesn't really achieve any of that. Hm. Interesting. yeah who knows...more just throwing it out there for a visual to sort of show where we are at and what's currently stacked against us. there's some pretty concrete features right now. eventually things should relax/shift/flip, i'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Good post Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 BUT...the modeling improves in the long range with each run. Something's happening. What it is not exactly clear. There's a man with a gun over there....telling me...snow or beware... you better stop, Pacific, whats that sound? AO and NAO coming down.... Snowanoia strikes deep Into your life it will creep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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