Logan11 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The sun is shining and it looks very nice out here in Lisbon despite the rain and 59F forecast. Time for someone to wake up over there and give the Euro model review. I arrive back at ALB at 11:30 PM on Wednesday night and at least it looks chilly then. Of course the ensembles aren't having what the op run is eating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Nice to see the euro crimp next weeks torch. Snow around thanksgiving per the overnight run. Better outcome on 0Z. And I beat Kevin to the morning wakeup post. He's preparing his sermon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Nice to see the euro crimp next weeks torch. Snow around thanksgiving per the overnight run. Better outcome on 0Z. And I beat Kevin to the morning wakeup post. He's preparing his sermon. Monday went from torch city to a below normal afternoon within 1 set of runs. The EC gives NNE a snow event Tue/Wed too although obviously that is in la-la land. Gotta love this field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Nice to see the euro crimp next weeks torch. Snow around thanksgiving per the overnight run. Better outcome on 0Z. And I beat Kevin to the morning wakeup post. He's preparing his sermon. LOL..I run early mornings and by the time I get showered an look at models before logging on here it's 6:15ish.. HAving some IT band pain the last few weeks..Stretching has helped some. Nice to see the Euro totally change it's tune. I was damn worried yesterday. More importantly though do the ens support the op?Hard to believe it went fro a torch to giving sne a snowstorm in 1 run It also looks like another cold shot it poised to make a run at us day 11-12 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 OK worries are over..Time to fire up the winter bus...turn up the volume on your laptops as they rise into midair as you open up your morning Euro runs and picture all of us on the bus bobbing heads,,pumping fists as we see model runs get better and better..and then that's me at the end ..driving the bus and letting all the weenies off as we lock in a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL..I run early mornings and by the time I get showered an look at models before logging on here it's 6:15ish.. HAving some IT band pain the last few weeks..Stretching has helped some. Nice to see the Euro totally change it's tune. I was damn worried yesterday. More importantly though do the ens support the op?Hard to believe it went fro a torch to giving sne a snowstorm in 1 run It also looks like another cold shot it poised to make a run at us day 11-12 on the Euro Be careful with overuse. Winters coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Euro ensembles are still pretty warm next week. It defintely cooled off at the beginning of next week, but it's a swfe rain deal for many as of now. It is warm for T-Day too. However at the end of the run some very weak signs of heights rising in the Davis Straits and in the Aleutians, but other than a transient cold shot...don't see a change yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 It could be semi interesting I suppose for NNE early next week. Nice look to high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Euro ensembles are still pretty warm next week. It defintely cooled off at the beginning of next week, but it's a swfe rain deal for many as of now. It is warm for T-Day too. However at the end of the run some very weak signs of heights rising in the Davis Straits and in the Aleutians, but other than a transient cold shot...don't see a change yet. NAO still looks putrid as well. Hopefully the Scandanavian Ridge retrogrades in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL, good. He is secretlty stocking you and prints off all your post to use them against you at a later date..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Goodmorning. Sun is shining and its already 59, the torch of a lifetime continues with no end in sight. Have a great day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Goodmorning. Sun is shining and its already 59, the torch of a lifetime continues with no end in sight. Have a great day! glasses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Euro ensembles are still pretty warm next week. It defintely cooled off at the beginning of next week, but it's a swfe rain deal for many as of now. It is warm for T-Day too. However at the end of the run some very weak signs of heights rising in the Davis Straits and in the Aleutians, but other than a transient cold shot...don't see a change yet. LOL..how did I know you would Debbie us this morning.. This might be a case of the op models catching the change first and we'll see the Ensembles catch on today. HM said he think s tha change comes sooner rather than later in later Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL..how did I know you would Debbie us this morning.. This might be a case of the op models catching the change first and we'll see the Ensembles catch on today. HM said he think s tha change comes sooner rather than later in later Nov LOL, not being a Debbie..just telling it how it is. I don't think HM said it would be sooner rather than later. As we get closer to T-Day and the end of November...naturally it will get closer. With that big AK trough, it will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL, not being a Debbie..just telling it how it is. I don't think HM said it would be sooner rather than later. As we get closer to T-Day and the end of November...naturally it will get closer. With that big AK trough, it will take time. Hm's quote is on this page, geezus Kev is trying hard though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hm's quote is on this page, geezus Kev is trying hard though I don't see it...are you talking about the 24th to 28th? I think that is too soon, other than a transient shot and he also mentioned some models try to do this...I don't think he called for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I do think NNE has a wintry "threat" perhaps around Tuesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 glasses? LOL keep trying Steve, this has been an all out assault, winter will arrive but not anytime soon, anything cool is transient. Besides the week of freak, this has been an historically warm autumn in all of new england, and at the end of the month when s o and n are compiled the numbers wont lie. 62 sunny, off to cut grass on November 14th.........yep bitter cold it has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Goodmorning. Sun is shining and its already 59, the torch of a lifetime continues with no end in sight. Have a great day! really is quite the stretch (of above normal departures) when you crunch the numbers. although if we get a lot of gradient situation's this winter we may have to get used to CT > 50 and NNE cold and dumping. I think the southern 1/2 of SNE averages 2 + departures this winter and NNE about -1 departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Weeklies come out later today. Coming out twice a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Weeklies come out later today. Coming out twice a week now. They'll go to what...2nd week of dec? Should be entertaining. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Hm's quote is on this page, geezus Kev is trying hard though His quote is he thinks cold pattern starts in late Nov. You posted it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 They'll go to what...2nd week of dec? Should be entertaining. Lol I think the way it works, is that if a forecast comes out today, the Thursday update will sort of be an update of the previous forecast. Actually, today's update might be an update for the forecast that came out on Thursday. Something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I don't see it...are you talking about the 24th to 28th? I think that is too soon, other than a transient shot and he also mentioned some models try to do this...I don't think he called for it. No he said end of Nov/Dec is transient not sooner as Kev said HM, on 13 November 2011 - 05:00 PM, said: The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL keep trying Steve, this has been an all out assault, winter will arrive but not anytime soon, anything cool is transient. Besides the week of freak, this has been an historically warm autumn in all of new england, and at the end of the month when s o and n are compiled the numbers wont lie. 62 sunny, off to cut grass on November 14th.........yep bitter cold it has been! hard to argue this i mean a betting man wouldn't bet against this being the case while we all wait for a pattern flip (if one to cold and snowy occurs in SNE) while i think NNE is primed to flip the switch for a colder and snowier (relative to ave) period faster and longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I do think NNE has a wintry "threat" perhaps around Tuesday next week. The last few model runs it looks like there is a chance, Still a ways out, Right now its a marginal threat but at least there is one showing up, It will probably change a hundred times if does materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LOL keep trying Steve, this has been an all out assault, winter will arrive but not anytime soon, anything cool is transient. Besides the week of freak, this has been an historically warm autumn in all of new england, and at the end of the month when s o and n are compiled the numbers wont lie. 62 sunny, off to cut grass on November 14th.........yep bitter cold it has been! no end in sight besides this week? That was my point, you exaggerrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 No he said end of Nov/Dec is transient not sooner as Kev said HM, on 13 November 2011 - 05:00 PM, said: The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). Exactly..although I think closer to 1st week December, but either way..not sooner rather than later. I think we are all on a similar page with that. Obviously exact details are impossible right now. Just don't see much in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 No he said end of Nov/Dec is transient not sooner as Kev said HM, on 13 November 2011 - 05:00 PM, said: The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). wow that seemed pretty confident for a LR forecast .....i haven't followed HM closely. Is there much accuracy to LR forecasts for this usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 wow that seemed pretty confident for a LR forecast .....i haven't followed HM closely. Is there much accuracy to LR forecasts for this usually Like everyone else no one is perfect but in my book he is pretty damn good at timing and sequencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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