CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 There may be some overnight mins in the mid 50s to low 60s next Mon night. The Euro throws +16C 850s over the Cape at d8.5. Dews near 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Might be one of the warmest Tgiving weeks in histroy. 75-80 for a day or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Might be one of the warmest Tgiving weeks in histroy. 75-80 for a day or 2? Bug repellent for the morning football games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Just got back from NYC... All I have to say is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 This could be bonafide beach weather back home, its always been a Tday dream to be in flips, board shorts and a tshirt.........its almost starting to look too warm, 80 and sunny will be just fine thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 JB Tweet "JMA Nov 25-Dec 9 similar to pre Dec set up last year, as it starts evolving neg nao. pretty darn close" Got it from accuwx forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Dews near 60F. :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 [quote name=snowNH' timestamp='1321214691' post='1115557]Just got back from NYC... All I have to say is: <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/axesmiley.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br / What's wrong with nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Just got back from NYC... All I have to say is: ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 ??? I was talking about the torch coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Be careful in automatically presuming +15 h850 will automatically mix. I would think breaking that cap will require some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Be careful in automatically presuming +15 h850 will automatically mix. I would think breaking that cap will require some work. Good point, I dont see anything too crazy, then again low to mid 70s next week is beyond torch, what a fall, looks like there will be a good chance for a top 10 and possible top 5 all time warmest met autumns region wide. The rubber band will eventually snap, until then its September in New England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Be careful in automatically presuming +15 h850 will automatically mix. I would think breaking that cap will require some work. 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 this has got to be the ugliest pressure map I've ever seen in any of the months NOV-FEB http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Also, what we need is for that deep trough over central Asia to retrograde which all guidance shows starting to happen at the end of the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Be careful in automatically presuming +15 h850 will automatically mix. I would think breaking that cap will require some work. It's a long ways out, but the Euro brings 2m 60s into NNE. It's probably maxes near 70F for parts of SNE verbatim. But yeah, I don't think we'll be realizing those 850mb thetas fully. If the timing shapes up close to as it is modeled now, Tue may be fairly warm too as we get better mixing with the cold frontal passage. Regardless it looks warm though. We'll at least have some shots of cold (or at least near to slightly below normal) in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 80's No way. However it was 78 at BOS 11/18/93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Up and down the east coast has worried weenies in the sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Up and down the east coast has worried weenies in the sub forums. Thankfully it's 11/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Up and down the east coast has worried weenies in the sub forums. Who is worried? Its November. December should be just fine especially towards the holidays. Heck, Blizzie says cold and snow on the ground by Turkey Day here, just another November in BB land. (by the way, squirrels were massive at Ward Reservation today, even my wife commented on it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 This could be bonafide beach weather back home, its always been a Tday dream to be in flips, board shorts and a tshirt.........its almost starting to look too warm, 80 and sunny will be just fine thanks. It wasn't nearly that warm, but it seems like shades of the TG in 2006(?). We were living in ME at the time. Really wild/mild day. Tornado passed about 3 miles to the south of me in Phippsburg. Neat stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 ANything cold on Euro ens out into the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Who is worried? Its November. December should be just fine especially towards the holidays. Heck, Blizzie says cold and snow on the ground by Turkey Day here, just another November in BB land. (by the way, squirrels were massive at Ward Reservation today, even my wife commented on it) I think the main worry is that, for my region up in Ontario (both Toronto and ottawa) at least, it's very rare that a cold snowy winter follows a torch November. 1975 is the only example I can find. November 2007 had an overall mean around 33F in Ottawa, as did 2008. However the torch Novembers of 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2009 were also followed by December torches, although 2006-2007 did flip in mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 No way. However it was 78 at BOS 11/18/93. I was in 8th grade that year and can remember playing soccor out on the field around mid December 1993 without having to wear a coat. Biggest flip in temperatures of my life, save for 2006-2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I know...I don't get it. 2000-01\2008-09, here we come. Didn't you get a cold January 2009? It was frigid up here. I could live with a 2008-2009. Bug repellent for the morning football games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 JB Tweet "JMA Nov 25-Dec 9 similar to pre Dec set up last year, as it starts evolving neg nao. pretty darn close" Got it from accuwx forums I like JB, but he may be on the brink of his biggest bust since 2001-2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I like JB, but he may be on the brink of his biggest bust since 2001-2002. Talk to me later HM, on 13 November 2011 - 05:00 PM, said: The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 This is going to be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Talk to me later HM, on 13 November 2011 - 05:00 PM, said: The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). That's more or less what we have been saying. Might be yo-yo..variability..what have you in the beginning before a possibly more prolonged regime sets in. That's how it goes when the NAO and/or EPO try to assert itself. The big question is how and when does the EPO relax for this time happen. It probably won't be until very late this month at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 That more or less what we have been saying. Might be yo-yo..variability..what have you in the beginning before a possibly more prolonged regime sets in. That's how it goes when the NAO and/or EPO try to assert itself. The big question is how and when does the EPO relax for this time happen. It probably won't be until very late this month at the earliest. Even at the end of the euro ensembles...we still have a strong trough very near the west coast of Canada. That will act to promote zonal flow, especially across southern Canada. But there are subtle signs that heights slowly try to rise across western NAMR, but we will also need to dump some more cold into southern Canada and flush out the Pacific air. It's gonna take some time, but it probably will come around in a few weeks. MJO looks to have a weak to perhaps mdt strength type wave to come around into phase 1 and 2, by the 27th. Perhaps we see some of the results from this maybe 7 days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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