CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again as we enter December. It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again. I am still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge. http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/nao.png CPC charts are close to ludicrous in terms of NAO state. I mentioned this morning that the anomalies pull west a bit which try to pump heights up in the west and heights try to rise in the Davis Straits again. It might be false, but the whole retrogression idea has been around for a few days now. The argument is that Canada torches and it does warm, but it's still pretty chilly north of 50N..especially when you get to the longitude of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The west is having a wall-to-wall great pattern with no breaks in NOVEMBER....I don't know about the rest of you, but if that were taking place here, I couldn't help but feel as though it were being wasted (especially here on the cp) and be terrified of the timing of a potential flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 A bad winter is simply not going to take place....get out and enjoy the wx while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again as we enter December. Supported by the GEFS...backing off on the MJO impulse that they had two days ago. When I last looked the Euro ensembles had the MJO in the COD by the end of the month while the GEFS had a moderate phase 1. Since then the GEFS have trended towards the Euro camp. The change you noted is well advertised in the H5 height anomalies. The three links below show the GEFS trying to dictate the pattern change over a 10+ day period (occurring slowly, admittedly) as the west coast trough retrogrades towards the GOA. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f156.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f240.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f360.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The west is having a wall-to-wall great pattern with no breaks in NOVEMBER....I don't know about the rest of you, but if that were taking place here, I couldn't help but feel as though it were being wasted (especially here on the cp) and be terrified of the timing of a potential flip. It's probably been at least 35 years since we had wall to wall winter November through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 It's probably been at least 35 years since we had wall to wall winter November through March. Same crap, last fall....woe is me because fall wasn't winter....only this year it WAS, yet we still see it. Some of the signs I saw this summer\fall just do no precede dead ratters....period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Conversation in Kevin's house: Mommy...Daddy yelled at me and I didn't do anything. That's ok honey, Daddy's upset with the weather and until he comes to his senses we need to leave him alone....I'm sure it will be soon or we can go to Grandmas for a long time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Supported by the GEFS...backing off on the MJO impulse that they had two days ago. When I last looked the Euro ensembles had the MJO in the COD by the end of the month while the GEFS had a moderate phase 1. Since then the GEFS have trended towards the Euro camp. The change you noted is well advertised in the H5 height anomalies. The three links below show the GEFS trying to dictate the pattern change over a 10+ day period (occurring slowly, admittedly) as the west coast trough retrogrades towards the GOA. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f156.gif http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f240.gif http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f360.gif That's been modeled for a few days now. Like anything, it will take time. Some people are fixated that we have to go ballz deep into winter starting Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Same crap, last fall....woe is me because fall wasn't winter....only this year it WAS, yet we still see it. Some of the signs I saw this summerfall just do no precede dead ratters....period. Strongly agree. It seems ridiculous but the animals know better sometimes...and the squirrels are giving a huge signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Supported by the GEFS...backing off on the MJO impulse that they had two days ago. When I last looked the Euro ensembles had the MJO in the COD by the end of the month while the GEFS had a moderate phase 1. Since then the GEFS have trended towards the Euro camp. The change you noted is well advertised in the H5 height anomalies. The three links below show the GEFS trying to dictate the pattern change over a 10+ day period (occurring slowly, admittedly) as the west coast trough retrogrades towards the GOA. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f156.gif http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f240.gif http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f360.gif There are definitely a good amount of GFS ensemble members bringing the East Coast cold back Nov 24-28. If you look back since late October, the entire N PAC state has been retrograding and I see no reason why this won't continue. New 12z ECMWF is showing the retogression as well, moving the BC PV to the Aleutians by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 That's been modeled for a few days now. Like anything, it will take time. Some people are fixated that we have to go ballz deep into winter starting Thanksgiving. You've got that right. A few weeks ago I went with Dec 15 for the date when we'll be getting into full swing -- may be a hair late, but I figured this would take some time. I would like to get some snow on T-day though. There have been three or four years in the past several years where my house in Vermont has been lucky with some accumulating snow on T-day. It's awesome to get up there and have a white thanksgiving morning and hit the mountains for some skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 There are definitely a good amount of GFS ensemble members bringing the East Coast cold back Nov 24-28. If you look back since late October, the entire N PAC state has been retrograding and I see no reason why this won't continue. New 12z ECMWF is showing the retogression as well, moving the BC PV to the Aleutians by the end of the run. Yeah, it's a slow process. I doubt this thing flips fully by the end of the month. But I can't say I am disappointed with where we are at right now. Regardless of the Oct snow and the hopes for a wintry pattern by now...the reality is that guidance is trying to bring us into a more favorable pattern by Mid December..with the inclusion of some good blocking and higher height anomalies towards the Davis Straight. Can't really complain about that. We'll see where the next few weeks take us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 You've got that right. A few weeks ago I went with Dec 15 for the date when we'll be getting into full swing -- may be a hair late, but I figured this would take some time. I would like to get some snow on T-day though. There have been three or four years in the past several years where my house in Vermont has been lucky with some accumulating snow on T-day. It's awesome to get up there and have a white thanksgiving morning and hit the mountains for some skiing. If we see the euro and even the GFS extrapolate out, it might pop something interesting in the first week of December, but at that point..we still can't be sure if any winter interlude is here to stay because it may be transient with another yo-yo ride before things try to stabilize. That's how things transpire sometimes. I still want to see that EPO switch in the next couple of weeks. That's killing things right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Strongly agree. It seems ridiculous but the animals know better sometimes...and the squirrels are giving a huge signal. Not even that....I am a BIG believer in connections between the tropics and the ensuing winter. That among other things sreams "big". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 From 2 years ago? Maybe this? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Looks unmild.... Yeah that's the one. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 LOL lots of posts flying around in here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Yeah, it's a slow process. I doubt this thing flips fully by the end of the month. But I can't say I am disappointed with where we are at right now. Regardless of the Oct snow and the hopes for a wintry pattern by now...the reality is that guidance is trying to bring us into a more favorable pattern by Mid December..with the inclusion of some good blocking and higher height anomalies towards the Davis Straight. Can't really complain about that. We'll see where the next few weeks take us. Quite amazing the similarities to last year really both in sensible weather and impatient worryworts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The 4 Norway maples in my yard have largely shed. Raking in the dark probably later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Quite amazing the similarities to last year really both in sensible weather and impatient worryworts. It was colder last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 It was colder last year. Not much, remember the four rainstorm cutters we had before the 20 th of Dec? Everyone was sure that was our pattern. The cold shot Frid- Sat looks impressive and then at day ten we see a much different look. Nov 10 1 51 35 43 -6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.9 20 320 M M 4 26 330 2 49 37 43 -6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.1 17 320 M M 5 22 320 3 51 32 42 -7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 14 260 M M 3 17 260 4 52 39 46 -2 19 0 0.78 0.0 0 12.3 29 40 M M 9 1 39 40 5 62 47 55 7 10 0 0.38 0.0 0 8.1 24 240 M M 9 1 30 230 6 50 42 46 -2 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.5 16 20 M M 7 20 30 7 45 37 41 -7 24 0 0.14 0.0 0 13.6 24 320 M M 9 1 32 320 8 50 36 43 -4 22 0 0.43 T 0 20.3 41 40 M M 10 1 54 20 9 53 46 50 3 15 0 0.06 0.0 0 13.8 23 10 M M 10 1 30 10 10 48 42 45 -2 20 0 0.07 0.0 0 16.8 28 20 M M 8 1 35 20 11 50 39 45 -1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.5 30 40 M M 2 37 40 12 56 39 48 2 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.1 14 40 M M 0 16 30 13 61 41 51 5 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 10 320 M M 1 20 290 14 52 41 47 1 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 15 60 M M 7 18 60 15 52 47 50 5 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 10 70 M M 10 1 12 50 16 53 49 51 6 14 0 0.04 0.0 0 7.9 17 110 M M 9 18 22 100 17 64 49 57 12 8 0 0.90 M 0 19.9 36 270 M M 8 1 47 280 18 54 41 48 4 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 14.5 33 280 M M 4 43 280 19 45 35 40 -4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 17 290 M M 4 24 270 20 54 34 44 0 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.9 26 290 M M 5 39 290 21 39 32 36 -7 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 15 10 M M 6 21 350 22 56 37 47 4 18 0 T 0.0 0 11.0 18 220 M M 9 23 230 23 62 51 57 14 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.4 28 290 M M 9 1 41 300 24 51 34 43 1 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 19.9 31 300 M M 2 45 300 25 41 31 36 -6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.1 21 290 M M 6 29 300 26 47 34 41 0 24 0 0.16 0.0 0 9.9 22 280 M M 7 1 33 290 27 43 32 38 -3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.6 28 280 M M 5 37 270 28 45 28 37 -4 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.0 22 290 M M 2 32 320 29 46 35 41 1 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 10 160 M M 2 15 150 30 49 34 42 2 23 0 T 0.0 0 6.8 15 110 M M 7 17 130 ================================================================================ SM 1531 1156 597 0 2.96 T 330.5 M 179 Nov 11 1 54 40 47 -2 18 0 0.00 0.0 M 7.1 16 80 M M 7 20 90 2 54 39 47 -2 18 0 0.00 0.0 M 6.6 10 130 M M 2 13 130 3 63 42 53 5 12 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.0 20 230 M M 4 18 25 220 4 53 38 46 -2 19 0 0.00 0.0 M 13.8 24 320 M M 6 31 350 5 49 36 43 -5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.8 15 350 M M 1 18 350 6 59 36 48 0 17 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.5 18 230 M M 0 30 260 7 65 42 54 7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 14 240 M M 2 21 270 8 69 51 60 13 5 0 0.00 0.0 M 5.1 9 300 M M 2 10 300 9 67 47 57 10 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.6 13 180 M M 1 18 17 210 10 60 52 56 10 9 0 1.05 0.0 M 4.3 14 300 M M 10 12 24 330 11 58 41 50 4 15 0 T M M 16.3 31 270 M M 6 43 270 12 53 37 45 -1 20 0 0.00 0.0 M 12.9 26 220 M M 1 32 220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Cowboys just tearing apart the Bills....MRG must have hung himself with his hair by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Cowboys just tearing apart the Bills....MRG must have hung himself with his hair by now :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 SWFE Fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 We are probably going to have a very good winter, but in the mean time, we have this lovely weather as a very savory appetizer....woe is me. The true winter weather will come in due time. Sooner vs. later remains to be seen. But, with 2 measurable events and double digits for many (most?) will have many folks ahead of normal snowfall-wise through at least mid-December. 53.1/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The reservation was beautiful, nice to be up in the hills, just a spectacular day! Drove back on 35 east and 33 south, the devestation in Ridgefield was jaw dropping, COT trucks chipping and cutting wood, piles everywhere, two weeks later I cant even imgaine how bad it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Heavy heavy torch next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Not even that....I am a BIG believer in connections between the tropics and the ensuing winter. That among other things sreams "big". i am banking on Jerry's squirrels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The true winter weather will come in due time. Sooner vs. later remains to be seen. But, with 2 measurable events and double digits for many (most?) will have many folks ahead of normal snowfall-wise through at least mid-December. 53.1/40 I know...I don't get it. 2000-01\2008-09, here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Heavy heavy torch next week 12z guidance is impressive for this week, and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Heavy heavy torch next week There may be some overnight mins in the mid 50s to low 60s next Mon night. The Euro throws +16C 850s over the Cape at d8.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.