weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 After that timeframe..Canada is scoured of cold..It's torched late month into Dec. We are in trouble Where do we have reliable modeling beyond 2 weeks? Incidentally today's ensembles show a pattern change in the pacific beyond d10. Maybe too early but a signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Gibbs has cancelled Dec now after his initial forecast had it very cold. He's close to pulling plug on entire winter Very cold December forecasts were always in trouble IMHO. My initial mild forecast had it +4 and today I'd say probably normal biased with a +5 first 10 days and a much colder last 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Good timing on the warmth....maybe I can wear shorts when I go to the MNF game at Gillette next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Gibbs has cancelled Dec now after his initial forecast had it very cold. He's close to pulling plug on entire winter I dont understand how anyone can take someone seriously when they cancel a whole season a month before it starts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I guess people don't remember that +1 Decembers can produce double the amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I dont understand how anyone can take someone seriously when they cancel a whole season a month before it starts lol He's just venting and exaggerating. He's still distraught that he had no bagger for his groceries this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I guess people don't remember that +1 Decembers can produce double the amount of snow. A normal or +1 Dec would be welcomed. That's what I want since it would be snowy. Problem is with Canada absolutely torched with warmth there is not even normal cold..there'll be no snowcover over much of Canada..it's just a sickening feeling for me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Kevin is the most normal person I know who idolizes people.....he's what we all fear we'll become. I'm old and realize that no one knows this long range stuff all that well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Very cold December forecasts were always in trouble IMHO. My initial mild forecast had it +4 and today I'd say probably normal biased with a +5 first 10 days and a much colder last 20. I feel fine with mine so far: The start of the month looks generally warm and dry for much of the nation, outside the Northwest where disturbances will amplify downstream of Pacific ridging. Stormier weather will be introduced into the eastern half of the nation for the second half of the month, with colder air reaching the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 A normal or +1 Dec would be welcomed. That's what I want since it would be snowy. Problem is with Canada absolutely torched with warmth there is not even normal cold..there'll be no snowcover over much of Canada..it's just a sickening feeling for me right now Where's the credible evidence regarding Canada? Post it? Sorry.....long range 3-4 week forecast which often flip a week later don't constitute credible to me unless you can supply some verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I feel fine with mine so far: Who cares..we don't live in the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Where's the credible evidence regarding Canada? Post it? Sorry.....long range 3-4 week forecast which often flip a week later don't constitute credible to me unless you can supply some verification scores. WHere's the credible evidence Canda will be entrenched in winter cold for the next 4 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 hard core trolling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 A normal or +1 Dec would be welcomed. That's what I want since it would be snowy. Problem is with Canada absolutely torched with warmth there is not even normal cold..there'll be no snowcover over much of Canada..it's just a sickening feeling for me right now no but really it'll be okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 A normal or +1 Dec would be welcomed. That's what I want since it would be snowy. Problem is with Canada absolutely torched with warmth there is not even normal cold..there'll be no snowcover over much of Canada..it's just a sickening feeling for me right now It's fine north of 50N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 WHere's the credible evidence Canda will be entrenched in winter cold for the next 4 weeks? How about the calendar? I think it trumps other guidance that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 A normal or +1 Dec would be welcomed. That's what I want since it would be snowy. Problem is with Canada absolutely torched with warmth there is not even normal cold..there'll be no snowcover over much of Canada..it's just a sickening feeling for me right now You've done a good job of worrying weenies, but the joke is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 You've done a good job of worrying weenies, but the joke is over. Nope...too obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 You've done a good job of worrying weenies, but the joke is over. I'm not out to worry weiners..I'm letting my feelings/thoughts be known. I am 110% legitimately worried. You know who I think also is, but would never come out and admit it is Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Jerry, do you have a link to that map of temp departures across Canada when we were following your "elephant"? Kevin, though psychologically unstable, does have a point about the airmass over Canada for the next few weeks, and I think it would be good to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I'm not out to worry weiners..I'm letting my feelings/thoughts be known. I am 110% legitimately worried. You know who I think also is, but would never come out and admit it is Will Hey it's on the back of my mind....probably his too, but I've seen sh*t switch around so quickly in December. I guess at this stage of the game...and probably many others feel this way..it's way too early to worry about the WHOLE month of December. If we continue to see a mega trough hang out by AK with a +NAO in the next 2-3 weeks..then maybe we revisit this. How quickly we forget about torch cutters at the beginning of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Just enjoy the weather....its too early to hang yourself. If this were summer, I'd be miserable, but this weather is a massive pants tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again as we enter December. It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again. I am still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/nao.png CPC charts are close to ludicrous in terms of NAO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again as we enter December. It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again. I am still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge. http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/nao.png CPC charts are close to ludicrous in terms of NAO state. shhhh...did you hear that? someone just unplugged the toaster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Hey it's on the back of my mind....probably his too, but I've seen sh*t switch around so quickly in December. I guess at this stage of the game...and probably many others feel this way..it's way too early to worry about the WHOLE month of December. If we continue to see a mega trough hang out by AK with a +NAO in the next 2-3 weeks..then maybe we revisit this. How quickly we forget about torch cutters at the beginning of December. I'm not a met. but do think a 1993 could be pulled out of the hat. Much of that December wasa torch, but then look what happened right around christmas. Maybe this will be the year Lake Ontario freezes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 shhhh...did you hear that? someone just unplugged the toaster.... We are probably going to have a very good winter, but in the mean time, we have this lovely weather as a very savory appetizer....woe is me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again as we enter December. It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again. I am still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge. http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/nao.png CPC charts are close to ludicrous in terms of NAO state. November 1955 was below normal up in Ontario though, wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Jerry, do you have a link to that map of temp departures across Canada when we were following your "elephant"? Kevin, though psychologically unstable, does have a point about the airmass over Canada for the next few weeks, and I think it would be good to monitor. From 2 years ago? Maybe this? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Looks unmild.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again as we enter December. It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again. I am still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge. http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/nao.png CPC charts are close to ludicrous in terms of NAO state. What are your thoughts about the PAC jet breaking thru in the extended and torching Canada ala 2000-2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 November 1955 was below normal up in Ontario though, wasn't it? I said it is Nov 55-like with the transpolar ridge from the NAO regions. I am not accounting for sensible weather, especially in 1 specific location. But for the next 5-7 days, it is going to resemble 1955 and then between the 20th-25th it will look like 2001 more while the EPO is screaming positive. The good news is: the state of the stratosphere isn't anything like 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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