ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 Oh okay haha. Good to hear then Its not a full blown -EPO or anything...its more of a hint of blocking up there. The GOA low is more back toward the Aleutian side allowing for some higher heights to build over N and E AK and even a bit of a +PNA...def a colder look....but given the time range, its to be taken with plenty of Scooter caution flags. The ensembles tend to want to rush changes when we've been a long term pattern. But it at least gives some signals for cooling down in the first half of November if that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 snow's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Would like to see a little more snow pack building on this side of the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Would like to see a little more snow pack building on this side of the pole. Maybe the pole is where the gradient is setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Would like to see a little more snow pack building on this side of the pole. Just about right on top of where it was last year on this date for land snow, and perhaps a little behind last year in sea ice. But the latter is mostly because there was a bit more near shore recovery in the Asian side of the polar area than this year, and that probably has more to do timing patterns supportive of cold migration. The overall of the domain is still comparable to recent years for this date. Last year turned out just fine fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 LC sounding very optimistic... http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-saturday-october-15-2011-at-6-30-p-m-ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 LC sounding very optimistic... http://www.examiner....-at-6-30-p-m-ct He's a clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 That might be the first real hint at any possible cold pattern down the road. The Scandinavian ridge can often lead to a -NAO down the road as part of it retrogrades....getting some decent cold on the Canadian side is the other part of the equation. Its over 300 hours and we are talking about even beyond 360 hours when trying to extrapolate that pattern, but it would definitely lead to a colder look...probably below average. We'll have to see how it evolves. They often try to rush the regime changes...but its refreshing to see something different in the longer range. Maybe the start of the process. Looks like the euro ensembles try to do that after d10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Still a strong ridge over Great Britain area after d10 with it trying to show signs of going west, but the signal dampens out with time. Still, an overall dropping NAO signal heading into Novie it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Still a strong ridge over Great Britain area after d10 with it trying to show signs of going west, but the signal dampens out with time. Still, an overall dropping NAO signal heading into Novie it seems. Looks like the final 10 days of the month could average out to around seasonal. We may get a bit of a warm up in front of the day 9 system (still a ways out though) but it looks seasonably cool on each side of it. Nothing frigid, but 850 temps hovering around 0C is a bit below average for the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 the snowsticks are up across the neighborhood. officially on the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles actually agree on a cold period around Oct 27-29th or so. It does not look prolonged, but they both agree on cold weather in that time. GFS is colder than the Euro, but Euro would be below avg too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles actually agree on a cold period around Oct 27-29th or so. It does not look prolonged, but they both agree on cold weather in that time. GFS is colder than the Euro, but Euro would be below avg too. Still there on model guidance, and GFS is still colder than Euro in that Oct 28-29 time frame. Interestingly though, the Euro ensembles are now definitely colder than GFS ensembles for early November. They have more of a retrograded GOA low toward Aleutians and a +PNA with a -NAO starting to develop vs the GFS which is more of an east based GOA low and -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Still there on model guidance, and GFS is still colder than Euro in that Oct 28-29 time frame. Interestingly though, the Euro ensembles are now definitely colder than GFS ensembles for early November. They have more of a retrograded GOA low toward Aleutians and a +PNA with a -NAO starting to develop vs the GFS which is more of an east based GOA low and -PNA. Seems there is a bit of yo-yoing going on with this stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Seems there is a bit of yo-yoing going on with this stuff... Euro ensemble still have the 2nd cold shot in the long range for the first week of November...but it looks slightly more delayed than the 00z ensembles...i.e. the trough is still building a bit to the west vs more over us as we get into Nov 2-3. But it still has the +PNA with the GOA low a bit more toward the Aleutians and the NAO heights building up a little to hint at a developing -NAO. We'll have to see how it deals with this as we get closer. The GFS ensembles are still a bit east with the GOA low not allowing for as much PNA amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Euro ensemble still have the 2nd cold shot in the long range for the first week of November...but it looks slightly more delayed than the 00z ensembles...i.e. the trough is still building a bit to the west vs more over us as we get into Nov 2-3. But it still has the +PNA with the GOA low a bit more toward the Aleutians and the NAO heights building up a little to hint at a developing -NAO. We'll have to see how it deals with this as we get closer. The GFS ensembles are still a bit east with the GOA low not allowing for as much PNA amplification. What do you think about the pattern for next week across the east ( Oct 26-29th) Models seem to be having issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Seems there is a bit of yo-yoing going on with this stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 What do you think about the pattern for next week across the east ( Oct 26-29th) Models seem to be having issues Definitely a trough a moving in...anything specific is too much conjecture at this point given the time frame. There's certainly at least some mild potential for a storm system to bring snow to someone in that time frame...whether its over the eastern lakes, NY State, or New England remains to be seen...but a wave of low pressure may want to go up this frontal boundary. But again, given the time frame, this could change quite a bit. But there seems to be more agreement recently on a trough moving east and amplifying during this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Definitely a trough a moving in...anything specific is too much conjecture at this point given the time frame. There's certainly at least some mild potential for a storm system to bring snow to someone in that time frame...whether its over the eastern lakes, NY State, or New England remains to be seen...but a wave of low pressure may want to go up this frontal boundary. But again, given the time frame, this could change quite a bit. But there seems to be more agreement recently on a trough moving east and amplifying during this time period. 18z GFS ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Whats the latest on the pattern on the euro ensembles for the first week of november? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 lol good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Today's Euro ensembles are definitely looking chilly for early November. Not talking full blown arctic cold, but it definitely looks below average. Its been keeping heights down near and S of the Aleutians in the long range which helps pump up a bit of a PNA ridge....NAO still looks positive though. But it has some good below average temps in central and SE Canada into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Today's Euro ensembles are definitely looking chilly for early November. Not talking full blown arctic cold, but it definitely looks below average. Its been keeping heights down near and S of the Aleutians in the long range which helps pump up a bit of a PNA ridge....NAO still looks positive though. But it has some good below average temps in central and SE Canada into our region. Perfect leading into winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Several runs of the Euro now have had some pretty decent systems in the Eastern US in the long range as we hit November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Perfect leading into winter I wonder if blocking will come back strong. There's no sign of it on the ensembles...esp the Atlantic side. The vortex near Baffin Island looks quite potent. The last two autumns we've seen it show up a lot...it sort of goes against the traditional relationship though as historically lots of blocking in autumn usually led to less in winter. The upper level zonal wind anomalies have been above average for the polar vortex region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I wonder if blocking will come back strong. There's no sign of it on the ensembles...esp the Atlantic side. The vortex near Baffin Island looks quite potent. The last two autumns we've seen it show up a lot...it sort of goes against the traditional relationship though as historically lots of blocking in autumn usually led to less in winter. The upper level zonal wind anomalies have been above average for the polar vortex region. I'm not so sure it will. I suppose we should wait until later November like the other seasons, but I think this year it relaxes. That doesn't mean we can't have an episode or two where it's strong, but overall..I'm not feeling a big -NAO. Of course it can still be great around here if the Pacific cooperates with ridging into AK. I do think it will avg on the negative side, but I could see more transient type episodes. Maybe we can get something later in the season for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'm not so sure it will. I suppose we should wait until later November like the other seasons, but I think this year it relaxes. That doesn't mean we can't have an episode or two where it's strong, but overall..I'm not feeling a big -NAO. Of course it can still be great around here if the Pacific cooperates with ridging into AK. I do think it will avg on the negative side, but I could see more transient type episodes. Maybe we can get something later in the season for once? '08-'09 was kind of like that, slightly negative NAO overall...'07-'08 of course had a very +NAO but it did have its moments obviously if you were far enough north. I'm not convinced there's going to be a lot of blocking yet. The further we go along without seeing any sign of it returning is a little concerning for those counting on it IMHO. One common theme during the past 2+ years, is that blocking seemingly wanted to always be present...when it broke down, it didn't take long for it to come back. We have essentially gone 2 months without NAO blocking now which is longest at any point in the past couple of years. The positive zonal wind anomalies in the upper levels up in the arctic means the PV might want to be stronger than normal heading into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 '08-'09 was kind of like that, slightly negative NAO overall...'07-'08 of course had a very +NAO but it did have its moments obviously if you were far enough north. I'm not convinced there's going to be a lot of blocking yet. The further we go along without seeing any sign of it returning is a little concerning for those counting on it IMHO. One common theme during the past 2+ years, is that blocking seemingly wanted to always be present...when it broke down, it didn't take long for it to come back. We have essentially gone 2 months without NAO blocking now which is longest at any point in the past couple of years. The positive zonal wind anomalies in the upper levels up in the arctic means the PV might want to be stronger than normal heading into winter. Yeah I think we are on month 5 of having an overall +NAO?? I saw the wind anomalies as well. Well, we'll see as we go into Novie I guess. I'd take the pattern shown on the ensembles right now, but that probably will change..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Yeah I think we are on month 5 of having an overall +NAO?? I saw the wind anomalies as well. Well, we'll see as we go into Novie I guess. I'd take the pattern shown on the ensembles right now, but that probably will change..lol. The huge -NAO broke down in August but I still think the month averaged negative. Sep/Oct will come in positive and its looking like November will at least start out solidly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Yeah I think we are on month 5 of having an overall +NAO?? I saw the wind anomalies as well. Well, we'll see as we go into Novie I guess. I'd take the pattern shown on the ensembles right now, but that probably will change..lol. Huh?, month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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