Moving on to mid/late November

[CoastalWx]

Where is the much above normal pattern with +10 to +15 everyone has been calling for the last 2 weeks of the month? After early next week..can anyone show me where it is?

Well if you believe the euro op, here it is for a couple of days anyways.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well if you believe the euro op, here it is for a couple of days anyways.

No I mean the sustained warm pattern thru end of month and first week of Dec with no cold temps and no snow chances? I just want someone to direct me where to look.

[CoastalWx]

No I mean the sustained warm pattern thru end of month and first week of Dec with no cold temps and no snow chances? I just want someone to direct me where to look.

I'm not sure everyone said sustained warm temps and no snow. It just doesn't look like a wintry pattern per se. I don't see why people get so caught up over it on 11/12.

[Mr Torchey]

I'm not sure everyone said sustained warm temps and no snow. It just doesn't look like a wintry pattern per se. I don't see why people get so caught up over it on 11/12.

18k coming soon, make it memorable. Tday is going to be close, the way every november is, I would have to hedge on an epic torch with perhaps a transient cool shot that weekend, it will be close.

[CT Rain]

I'm not sure everyone said sustained warm temps and no snow. It just doesn't look like a wintry pattern per se. I don't see why people get so caught up over it on 11/12.

Euro is a couple day torch though early Thanksgiving week there's no question about that.

[CT Rain]

No I mean the sustained warm pattern thru end of month and first week of Dec with no cold temps and no snow chances? I just want someone to direct me where to look.

lol.... this was not one of your best forecasts.

[Mr Torchey]

Euro is a couple day torch though early Thanksgiving week there's no question about that.

Gfs agrees, the way things seem to be delayed this time of year it might carry through the holiday. So far, things look incredible down in SC that week, looking forward to some beach time, hopefully the pattern holds. Would be good for folks up here to rip the front through the day before so it felt like Tday in New England though.

[Damage In Tolland]

lol.... this was not one of your best forecasts.

ALl I'm hearing from many on here is a blowtorch thru week 1 in Dec.. I'd just like some evidence to see it for myself. Granted it looks like my call for winter to set in is going to be incorrect..so I'm looking for where folks are finidng this sustained +10-+15 pattern thru early Dec.

[CT Rain]

ALl I'm hearing from many on here is a blowtorch thru week 1 in Dec.. I'd just like some evidence to see it for myself. Granted it looks like my call for winter to set in is going to be incorrect..so I'm looking for where folks are finidng this sustained +10-+15 pattern thru early Dec.

Well I don't see sustained +10-+15 that's really really hard to do. That said over the next 7 days I see maybe 1 average day with every other day above or much above average. That's followed by a much above torch around 11/21 or 11/22. So there's dfeinitely not much cold in the forecast.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'll tell you what..people can say it's only mid November..and they're worried..but I can sense alot of worry and angst starting to creep into many of the posters here..including mets about how this winter is suddenly not looking so good.

If folks want it to be a cold wintry Dec..they'd better hope it cools down end of month or Dec is wasted..We've lost March in winter now..so they'll be left witha short 2 month window in Jan /Feb to hope winter happens..

I love people trying to make themsleves feel better by saying it's only Nov...but the fact is.we should be starting to see a wintry pattern soon if we have any hope of a good Dec.

[ski MRG]

I'll tell you what..people can say it's only mid November..and they're worried..but I can sense alot of worry and angst starting to creep into many of the posters here..including mets about how this winter is suddenly not looking so good.

If folks want it to be a cold wintry Dec..they'd better hope it cools down end of month or Dec is wasted..We've lost March in winter now..so they'll be left witha short 2 month window in Jan /Feb to hope winter happens..

I love people trying to make themsleves feel better by saying it's only Nov...but the fact is.we should be starting to see a wintry pattern soon if we have any hope of a good Dec.

Ok Ji.

[ski MRG]

Dec 2009 en route.

Yeah sure. Keep telling yourself the CP is the place to be for snow.

He has a short memory.

Selective is the term Will. Selective memory.

[earthlight]

The GEFS height anomalies offer at least a slight bit of hope towards the end of the run. Notice the Pacific and Pac NW are absolutely as bad as they can get at 180 hrs with -24 to -36 500mb height anomalies and a trough axis near Idaho. The southeast ridge is flexing with +12-18 height anomalies on the East Coast all the way into SE Canada.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f180.gif

However..towards the end of the run, we're beginning to see a retrograde of the mean trough from the Pacific NW to the Gulf of Alaska. There are also some hints of positive height anomalies with ridging towards Greenland and the Davis Straight. The end result is at least a slightly more favorable pattern which could yield results towards the end of the month. It's also worth noting how volatile the ensembles are at this range especially with the Gulf of Alaska height anomalies--it's pretty rare to see -18 to -24 height anomalies one the means at 360 hrs. There's usually a much greater spread at that hour.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f360.gif

A lot of this has to do with the GFS trending towards the ECMWF with the MJO impulse in the longer range. Two days ago the GFS and GEFS were insistent on a moderate 1 MJO through the end of the run, while the ECMWF was generally killing off the impulse. The GFS has caved..in a sense..which is a big help for us.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

Here are the MJO Phase 1 La Nina 500mb height anomalies..we'd want to hope the GEFS and Euro are now correct in keeping this generally out of a more moderate phase 1.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/LaNinagt1Phase1.gif

All of this said...things remain uncertain heading into December. It's definitely not encouraging to see the Euro ensembles and weeklies as they are. And although I'm not the guy screaming "it's only november!!" (because there is something to be said for the pattern now and moving forward)...it being November 12th should offer us at least some perspective at the very least. There's still a ton of lead time going into any potential pattern change -- and we are beginning to see some good signs -- which would take us into early December .. at least somewhat on schedule. I still like a mid December flip to a wintry pattern.

[Mr Torchey]

The GEFS height anomalies offer at least a slight bit of hope towards the end of the run. Notice the Pacific and Pac NW are absolutely as bad as they can get at 180 hrs with -24 to -36 500mb height anomalies and a trough axis near Idaho. The southeast ridge is flexing with +12-18 height anomalies on the East Coast all the way into SE Canada.

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f180.gif

However..towards the end of the run, we're beginning to see a retrograde of the mean trough from the Pacific NW to the Gulf of Alaska. There are also some hints of positive height anomalies with ridging towards Greenland and the Davis Straight. The end result is at least a slightly more favorable pattern which could yield results towards the end of the month. It's also worth noting how volatile the ensembles are at this range especially with the Gulf of Alaska height anomalies--it's pretty rare to see -18 to -24 height anomalies one the means at 360 hrs. There's usually a much greater spread at that hour.

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f360.gif

A lot of this has to do with the GFS trending towards the ECMWF with the MJO impulse in the longer range. Two days ago the GFS and GEFS were insistent on a moderate 1 MJO through the end of the run, while the ECMWF was generally killing off the impulse. The GFS has caved..in a sense..which is a big help for us.

http://www.cpc.ncep....splume_full.gif

Here are the MJO Phase 1 La Nina 500mb height anomalies..we'd want to hope the GEFS and Euro are now correct in keeping this generally out of a more moderate phase 1.

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase1.gif

All of this said...things remain uncertain heading into December. It's definitely not encouraging to see the Euro ensembles and weeklies as they are. And although I'm not the guy screaming "it's only november!!" (because there is something to be said for the pattern now and moving forward)...it being November 12th should offer us at least some perspective at the very least. There's still a ton of lead time going into any potential pattern change -- and we are beginning to see some good signs -- which would take us into early December .. at least somewhat on schedule. I still like a mid December flip to a wintry pattern.

Great post John, what are your thoughts on the -NAO returning towards the first half of December, whether its west or east and how that dances with the (which should be) robust SE ridge.

Personally, I am more focused on the Atlantic, as it can and will trump a shatty Pacific.

[earthlight]

Great post John, what are your thoughts on the -NAO returning towards the first half of December, whether its west or east and how that dances with the (which should be) robust SE ridge.

Personally, I am more focused on the Atlantic, as it can and will trump a shatty Pacific.

The atlantic most likely couldn't trump the Pacific as it is right now. But with the mean trough retrograding back farther west into the GOA, we at least have a chance if we can build a -NAO. It's certainly not the greatest pattern.

At this stage there is still a ton up in the air. You definitely want to build heights into the Davis Straight as the GEFS are indicating, though, if you want to get a chance of wintry weather down here to start December.

You can loop the GEFS for yourself here to see how much the pattern changes after Day 10 or so. Hopefully it's not completely wrong: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

[Mr Torchey]

The atlantic most likely couldn't trump the Pacific as it is right now. But with the mean trough retrograding back farther west into the GOA, we at least have a chance if we can build a -NAO. It's certainly not the greatest pattern.

At this stage there is still a ton up in the air. You definitely want to build heights into the Davis Straight as the GEFS are indicating, though, if you want to get a chance of wintry weather down here to start December.

You can loop the GEFS for yourself here to see how much the pattern changes after Day 10 or so. Hopefully it's not completely wrong: http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

That is a tough pattern, but I have seen the Atlantic do some impressive things over the last 4 years. We have been blessed with the blocking over the last couple winters. I love seeing the cold over western Canada, my issue is the engine that drives it se, having said that I do believe this winter is gradient. I think the LLCA is able to make inroads into the northeast, my only question is how far se, do we see lp's traverse the south coast of sne or tuck under li off the coast of central nj.

I think it may a situation where swfe's favor a line from eastern pa cutting through northern jersey into the heart of sne, but I also think there is an opputuntiy for eastern new engalnd to cash in with late blooming clippers and miller b's etc.

I dont see a robust STJ, I dont see miller A's or a split flow setting up, which would be horrible news for the parched southern tier. Having said that, the extremes the last 4 years have been historic. Who knows.

[ORH_wxman]

The most discouraging part of the Euro ensembles is toward the end of the run it has no cold air anymore over western/central Canada...the +EPO torches all of the previous cold air.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll tell you what..people can say it's only mid November..and they're worried..but I can sense alot of worry and angst starting to creep into many of the posters here..including mets about how this winter is suddenly not looking so good.

If folks want it to be a cold wintry Dec..they'd better hope it cools down end of month or Dec is wasted..We've lost March in winter now..so they'll be left witha short 2 month window in Jan /Feb to hope winter happens..

I love people trying to make themsleves feel better by saying it's only Nov...but the fact is.we should be starting to see a wintry pattern soon if we have any hope of a good Dec.

It doesn't come across to me like any Met is talking about "the winter" here, Kev.

This has been predominantly synoptic discussions between pattern recognition, ensemble means, teleconnector modal changes, and the occasional analog, just about all of which was regarding November.

Am I wrong folks... ?

Regarding the winter, if you want to talk winter we can talk gradient patterns and QBO abstraction, SSTs and tropical forcing and modes of the MJO and all that jazz. For me, it is going to be a pretty interesting battle between the negative NINO and the multi-decadal -(AO/NAO); two primary factors that will probably relay proxy back and forth. I will say that the AO has been predominantly positive, with only some minor durations spent negative, since early August. It is also noted the snow cover generation in autumn is heavily correlated on the +AO phase state; pretty remarkable to see that correlation prove so vividly this year. Greatest land based snow cover to date since the middle 1960s!!! That's.... incredible considering all the climate terror for the past 20 years.

I also read somewhere that +AO autumns are followed by -AO winters 2/3rds of the time - so we got that on your side if you're a Kev-head Lol. j'k kev -

[weathafella]

I'll tell you what..people can say it's only mid November..and they're worried..but I can sense alot of worry and angst starting to creep into many of the posters here..including mets about how this winter is suddenly not looking so good.

If folks want it to be a cold wintry Dec..they'd better hope it cools down end of month or Dec is wasted..We've lost March in winter now..so they'll be left witha short 2 month window in Jan /Feb to hope winter happens..

I love people trying to make themsleves feel better by saying it's only Nov...but the fact is.we should be starting to see a wintry pattern soon if we have any hope of a good Dec.

Did you forget last winter?

[Damage In Tolland]

It doesn't come across to me like any Met is talking about "the winter" here, Kev.

This has been predominantly synoptic discussions between pattern recognition, ensemble means, teleconnector modal changes, and the occasional analog, just about all of which was regarding November.

Am I wrong folks... ?

Regarding the winter, if you want to talk winter we can talk gradient patterns and QBO abstraction, SSTs and tropical forcing and modes of the MJO and all that jazz. For me, it is going to be a pretty interesting battle between the negative NINO and the multi-decadal -(AO/NAO); two primary factors that will probably relay proxy back and forth. I will say that the AO has been predominantly positive, with only some minor durations spent negative, since early August. It is also noted the snow cover generation in autumn is heavily correlated on the +AO phase state; pretty remarkable to see that correlation prove so vividly this year. Greatest land based snow cover to date since the middle 1960s!!! That's.... incredible considering all the climate terror for the past 20 years.

I also read somewhere that +AO autumns are followed by -AO winters 2/3rds of the time - so we got that on your side if you're a Kev-head Lol. j'k kev -

There's just been an abundance of negative type posts about how bad things look etc. Very few people have been posting about positive things they see or things they see happening as the pattern change evolves.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't think I've ever seen that much mass in cold air spread out over the Pac Basin... The latter half of the GFS operational is bringing sub 540dm thickness down below 40N across the entire Basin - pretty freakish looking.

The whole planet just looks like it's in a terminal

[weathafella]

There's just been an abundance of negative type posts about how bad things look etc. Very few people have been posting about positive things they see or things they see happening as the pattern change evolves.

Because the signs are not there yet. Remember, normal highs now are similar to early April. Hard to expect a lot of snow. It just doesn't have to be below normal. It has to be way below normal to get decent snow outside of NNE. Or elevated places 1500+ in SNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

Because the signs are not there yet. Remember, normal highs now are similar to early April. Hard to expect a lot of snow. It just doesn't have to be below normal. It has to be way below normal to get decent snow outside of NNE. Or elevated places 1500+ in SNE.

Right..but we should start seeing signs things are about to flip. 2 weeks ago there were posts flying around about how great the Euro ens looked as we headed for the holiday..now all we see are negative posts about it was the warmest Euro ens run in history..no cold air anywhere in Candada etc etc..Let's get some positivity going

[Ginx snewx]

Right..but we should start seeing signs things are about to flip. 2 weeks ago there were posts flying around about how great the Euro ens looked as we headed for the holiday..now all we see are negative posts about it was the warmest Euro ens run in history..no cold air anywhere in Candada etc etc..Let's get some positivity going

I think DT copied my ideas from earlier today LOL

http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/11/where-is-winter-are-we-all-doomed/

[weatherwiz]

It doesn't look necessarily west based to me, but yes if we did have warm waters in the eastern regions it may help promote a se ridge.

What do you think it is?

[Ginx snewx]

Geesus, talk about short term memory loss, again it is only November. Nina 10-14 day forecasts suck.. Just like last year, look back and read, Euro 2/3 weeklies sucked, GFS ENS 2-3 weeks sucked. 7-10 days not bad. I would not be at all surprised if we cook up an another coastal end of the month and that new moon has some pretty mighty tides with high levels and super strong current speeds, until then, rake the leaves, swing the clubs, stack the wood, play some frisbee, fish, hike, and most of all drink beer.

[weatherwiz]

If you look at the configuration of the Atlantic and what's going on around Greenland everything seems to favor a -NAO for the majority of this winter...as long as we're seeing cold air build up across parts of Siberia and then eventually building into Alaska and parts of western Canada all we will need is for the NAO/AO to dip negative which it should at some point.

[ski MRG]

I think DT copied my ideas from earlier today LOL

http://www.wxrisk.co...-we-all-doomed/

I love alll the hand wringing and fretting. Worrying about whether we're going to get snow is like worrying about the sun coming up. It's inevitable. We've already gotten tagged once in the midst of this hostile pattern. It will be good to mine some of these posts later this Winter when we are buffeted by storm after storm. Nervous Nellies.

[ski MRG]

Geesus, talk about short term memory loss, again it is only November. Nina 10-14 day forecasts suck.. Just like last year, look back and read, Euro 2/3 weeklies sucked, GFS ENS 2-3 weeks sucked. 7-10 days not bad. I would not be at all surprised if we cook up an another coastal end of the month and that new moon has some pretty mighty tides with high levels and super strong current speeds, until then, rake the leaves, swing the clubs, stack the wood, play some frisbee, fish, hike, and most of all drink beer.

GINXXX !!!!!

[ORH_wxman]

Geesus, talk about short term memory loss, again it is only November. Nina 10-14 day forecasts suck.. Just like last year, look back and read, Euro 2/3 weeklies sucked, GFS ENS 2-3 weeks sucked. 7-10 days not bad. I would not be at all surprised if we cook up an another coastal end of the month and that new moon has some pretty mighty tides with high levels and super strong current speeds, until then, rake the leaves, swing the clubs, stack the wood, play some frisbee, fish, hike, and most of all drink beer.

If the ensembles showed a promising pattern around T-day and beyond...people would be all over it. It doesn't mean we're a lock to have a bad pattern into December, but there's not a lot of evidence that we will have much of a wintry pattern to close out November. Perhaps we get a nice pattern cranking by first week of December....maybe we have to wait until Dec 15 or Dec 20....hard to say right now.