NorEastermass128 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Canada is really frigid on the EURO. Snow pack up that way is building too. Things are coming along. Get that area icebox cold and then send it this way when we could actually benefit from it. BIG winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 95% of the people hate when it happens, but I'm pulling for the Cape to get a good storm this year. Phil and even messenger were good sports while the rest of us got dumped on. Nothing is worse than watching people 20 miles from you get crushed. I've seen it all too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 95% of the people hate when it happens, but I'm pulling for the Cape to get a good storm this year. Phil and even messenger were good sports while the rest of us got dumped on. Nothing is worse than watching people 20 miles from you get crushed. I've seen it all too often. Can't relate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 How much did you end up with winter 87/88? 90+" . Already a third of the way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Can't relate. Dec 2009 en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Dec 2009 en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yeah, I wasn't a fan of dec 2009 either. That storm on the 19th or 20th really disappointed my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Dec 2009 en route. He has a short memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 95% of the people hate when it happens, but I'm pulling for the Cape to get a good storm this year. Phil and even messenger were good sports while the rest of us got dumped on. Nothing is worse than watching people 20 miles from you get crushed. I've seen it all too often. I support this post. Maybe some '98-'99....nice white xmas then a monster in feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Don't let that fool you...flip to arctic cold Nov 20....winter pattern locks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Euro ensembles just out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Euro ensembles just out Sustained cold starting later next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Sustained cold starting later next week? Well below normal pattern...multiple snow threats. AWTs flying all over the place. AMOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Well below normal pattern...multiple snow threats. AWTs flying all over the place. AMOUT. Thanks for the heads up Phil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Euro ensembles just out ... Stunning the amount of mass field discontinuity in the Euro mean in just 24 hours. Yesterday at this time that mean came out with a nice presentation of -EPO ridging ...almost approaching moderate in magnitude. Today, that entire spatial domain is completely and utterly dismantled down to zonal of all things. Frankly, that looks off to me, not just for the ending orientation of the flow, but that kind of continuity shift is always suspect. We'll have to see how this plays out. Admittedly, the -PNA and -EPO coincident phase state is the anti correlation - the two teleconnectors will tend to move in opposition most of the time. Obviously that doesn't mean you can't get it from time to time, but usually when that sets up its transient, and either the PNA rises and meets, or the ridge never materializes. One or the other. Just has to do with large scale stability with R-wave numbers/wave lengths. That's pretty much it.. Anyway, the -EPO yesterday, together with the slow 14-day rise in the PNA from nearly -3SD to almost neutral by month's end were actually a fairly decent homage to the notion of PNA rising to meet with a -EPO as stated. But this mean today looks weird, really - Not sure we should embrace this mean any more than we did yesterday's, just because it is warm and everyone is just in a cynical sour mood and are seeking reasons to justify a shyteater look to everything LOL. j/k. In early October there was a converged signal for colder times during the end of the month/beginning of November. Over the 2.5 weeks of the month those signals became at times entirely lost and obscured - hell, even I abandoned the idea at one point. But it came roaring back in the dailies. Not sure if that is taking place here, but I'm leery of letting go for the time being. I am noticing that the AO progs at CPC are also conspiring to piss people off with the overnight hearkening back to the twin pillars of winter destruction alla 2007 - again, coming out of nowhere. Perhaps all of this is par for the course for autumn. Mad mad mad gradient in the 850mb temperatures between Manitoba and the Mississippi Valley at times. It's nothing shy of admirable how the ECMWF operational runs maintains that with no consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Ha ha haaa, after further review, if the ECMWF and it's cohort members get their way, you guys hungry for snow might have to wait until later November 2012 before getting to eat again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Since I got over a foot of snow in October I'm expecting at least a foot in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Since I got over a foot of snow in October I'm expecting at least a foot in November. 1979 rearing its ugly mofo head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Good to see op models and ensembles agree on a wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Stunning the amount of mass field discontinuity in the Euro mean in just 24 hours. Yesterday at this time that mean came out with a nice presentation of -EPO ridging ...almost approaching moderate in magnitude. Today, that entire spatial domain is completely and utterly dismantled down to zonal of all things. Frankly, that looks off to me, not just for the ending orientation of the flow, but that kind of continuity shift is always suspect. We'll have to see how this plays out. Admittedly, the -PNA and -EPO coincident phase state is the anti correlation - the two teleconnectors will tend to move in opposition most of the time. Obviously that doesn't mean you can't get it from time to time, but usually when that sets up its transient, and either the PNA rises and meets, or the ridge never materializes. One or the other. Just has to do with large scale stability with R-wave numbers/wave lengths. That's pretty much it.. Anyway, the -EPO yesterday, together with the slow 14-day rise in the PNA from nearly -3SD to almost neutral by month's end were actually a fairly decent homage to the notion of PNA rising to meet with a -EPO as stated. But this mean today looks weird, really - Not sure we should embrace this mean any more than we did yesterday's, just because it is warm and everyone is just in a cynical sour mood and are seeking reasons to justify a shyteater look to everything LOL. j/k. In early October there was a converged signal for colder times during the end of the month/beginning of November. Over the 2.5 weeks of the month those signals became at times entirely lost and obscured - hell, even I abandoned the idea at one point. But it came roaring back in the dailies. Not sure if that is taking place here, but I'm leery of letting go for the time being. I am noticing that the AO progs at CPC are also conspiring to piss people off with the overnight hearkening back to the twin pillars of winter destruction alla 2007 - again, coming out of nowhere. Perhaps all of this is par for the course for autumn. Mad mad mad gradient in the 850mb temperatures between Manitoba and the Mississippi Valley at times. It's nothing shy of admirable how the ECMWF operational runs maintains that with no consequence. There has been some pretty big swings in the op models, but I think the ensembles have shown a trend doing away with a -NAO and now bring that into + territory. That and the PNA continues to be solid -. However, we saw similar evolution to the pattern last year, only to have it come around full force in towards mid December or so. While I don't see blocking taking place, the Scandinavian ridge builds again towards the end of the EC ensemble run, so we'll have to watch how that unfolds, since many times that can foretell a -NAO down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Good to see op models and ensembles agree on a wintry pattern. When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 When? The 20th! Where have you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 It is often mentioned on here that August is the worst time of year interest wise. After the last three years of Novembers like this I am beginning to think Novie ranks right up there. Compounding the boredom is the nearness to exciting times. I think carbon copy 09/10/11. When the dam breaks it will be fun times until then transience with maybe a lucky break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The 20th! Where have you been? Yeah op Euro has a legit snow chance around 11/20 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Well below normal pattern...multiple snow threats. AWTs flying all over the place. AMOUT. Lol, AWT is going to turn into "As Will Thought" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Lol, AWT is going to turn into "As Will Thought" Pretty much AEBKT (As Everyone But Kevin Thought.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Certainly lots of snow and cold above the 50th parallel at least...though some of that might get lost after D14 or so. I can't really find much to complain about on 11/12. Talk to me in about 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Certainly lots of snow and cold above the 50th parallel at least...though some of that might get lost after D14 or so. I can't really find much to complain about on 11/12. Talk to me in about 4 weeks. Yeah that's the thing. If the 10-15 day forecast on the models looks like this during the first week of December then I'll be disappointed. For November.... those of us in SNE should just enjoy the nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Where is the much above normal pattern with +10 to +15 everyone has been calling for the last 2 weeks of the month? After early next week..can anyone show me where it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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