CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Are you looking 500 heights? Epo rule? Euro ensembles have a pre T-Day warm up and then a cool down to near normal around T-Day to above again after as well. I know what you mean about the whole low level cold thing, but with this pattern..tough to get down this way. There might be something to watch near the 21st or 22nd as the cold gets pretty close to NNE, but again...dam pesky west coast trough gets in the way. Hopefully after T-Day, this trough relaxes. Some signs it will..but who knows this far out. I guess for me....transient cold shots don't count as a pattern change. For those holding out for any hopes of something semi interesting...better hope something tries to sneak in near the 21st..but that is a streeeeeeetch at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Euro ensembles have a pre T-Day warm up and then a cool down to near normal around T-Day to above again after as well. I know what you mean about the whole low level cold thing, but with this pattern..tough to get down this way. There might be something to watch near the 21st or 22nd as the cold gets pretty close to NNE, but again...dam pesky west coast trough gets in the way. Hopefully after T-Day, this trough relaxes. Some signs it will..but who knows this far out. I guess for me....transient cold shots don't count as a pattern change. For those holding out for any hopes of something semi interesting...better hope something tries to sneak in near the 21st..but that is a streeeeeeetch at this time. Oh I agree raging positive EPO, negative PNA and Neg NAO all point to transience. I think the after Tday period is when we transistion slowly into our winter pattern. To me this looks exactly like last year and the posts on this board mirror last year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The problem is that we really don't have good blocking. In fact, the NAO arguably goes + after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The problem is that we really don't have good blocking. In fact, the NAO arguably goes + after next week. And it'spretty east based to begin with which isn't going to cut it at all In Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The problem is that we really don't have good blocking. In fact, the NAO arguably goes + after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 http://www.americanw...ndpost__p__3306 Right, only we have no real sustainable blocking right now. Hopefully it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Just because the pattern sucks now, doesn't mean it will through New Year's. Nobody is implying or saying that right now. I just think the next 2 weeks or longer may be tough to get anything sustainable. It also doesn't mean you can't sneak in a fluke event..although that might have to wait until after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Just because the pattern sucks now, doesn't mean it will through New Year's. Nobody is implying or saying that right now. I just think the next 2 weeks or longer may be tough to get anything sustainable. It also doesn't mean you can't sneak in a fluke event..although that might have to wait until after Thanksgiving. I think we already saw the fluke event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 That sound you heard was hundreds of weenies rushing out to buy toasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Just because the pattern sucks now, doesn't mean it will through New Year's. Nobody is implying or saying that right now. I just think the next 2 weeks or longer may be tough to get anything sustainable. It also doesn't mean you can't sneak in a fluke event..although that might have to wait until after Thanksgiving. It's also only veterans day weekend...not like it xmas or anything. Its still really really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 lol has Kev hung himself yet? ...or is he still expecting 3 feet of snow pack before December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 It's also only veterans day weekend...not like it xmas or anything. Its still really really early. Yeah exactly...lol. I also think people assume December will always be a full blown winter month with 20"+ of snow, therefore they need to see the pattern start to unfold now. That's simply not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I would like to see a return to sustained normal temps. But that ain't happening for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yeah exactly...lol. I also think people assume December will always be a full blown winter month with 20"+ of snow, therefore they need to see the pattern start to unfold now. That's simply not the case. Let me correct something. It is a winter month, but we've had a rash of very snowy Decembers. Winter is not always December-February, despite the recent trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yeah exactly...lol. I also think people assume December will always be a full blown winter month with 20"+ of snow, therefore they need to see the pattern start to unfold now. That's simply not the case. exactly...we've had an amazing run of decembers recently. Regardless we've got weeks and weeks to go before it really starts to matter. If were sitting here in 3 weeks and still can't see signals for the pattern breaking down in the long range, i'll start to be concerned. Give me a cold/snowy stretch from mid/late dec thru jan and i'll be happy. Id rather that than see below normal temps set in now and last til nye...then vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 LOL..You're using the GFS?? Well the EC op does give you near +10C 850s and highs in the 60s on Mon the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 exactly...we've had an amazing run of decembers recently. Regardless we've got weeks and weeks to go before it really starts to matter. If were sitting here in 3 weeks and still can't see signals for the pattern breaking down in the long range, i'll start to be concerned. Give me a cold/snowy stretch from mid/late dec thru jan and i'll be happy. Id rather that than see below normal temps set in now and last til nye...then vanish. Anybody remember Nov 03?, it can and will Snow in Dec in a crappy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Anybody remember Nov 03?, it can and will Snow in Dec in a crappy pattern. Dec 08 was warmer than normal too. FWIW the weeklies last year, iirc , also showed a crappy December or at least the 1st half of December, and we know how December turned out. I think the key is to relax the big time -PNA out west through AK. If that happens, heights will raise and that may also help promote a bit of blocking to the northeast in the Davis Straits area. Right now..the flow is extremely fast. Until then...it may be tough to get anything sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Would be nice if that trough would sharpen up a bit more and bring the low closer to the coast on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Congrats Phil on Thanksgiving morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 It's like clockwork. People get crazy because we're not with a full on winter pattern in November. It happened this way last year and in fact all of the good snow Ninas save for 1995 and even that started slow without significant cold till the second half of November. I dunno.....I would take the 1993 torch through the solstice followed by 3 months of glory over cold November/December followed by alternate warm cold periods thereafter or worse....the flip of 1989-90. And if anyone mentions 2001 similarities I'm going to scream. 2001 was a warm and dry autumn/winter. This is anything but dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 It's like clockwork. People get crazy because we're not with a full on winter pattern in November. It happened this way last year and in fact all of the good snow Ninas save for 1995 and even that started slow withoout significant cold till the second half of December. I dunno.....I would take the 1993 torch through the solstice followed by 3 months of glory over cold November/December followed by alternate warm cold periods thereafter or worse....the flip of 1989-90. And if anyone mentions 2001 similarities I'm going to scream. 2001 was a warm and dry autumn/winter. This is anything but dry! I think this is the third year in a row where I've witnessed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I think this is the third year in a row where I've witnessed this. This doesn't look so bad. Evolving.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yep, it's official. Cancel Winter. It's obviously going to be the worst one ever.All the indicators say shut the garage door, start the car up and breath deep. It's already 11/12 and I've only had 31+". If that isn't proof that we'll see no snow this Winter I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yep, it's official. Cancel Winter. It's obviously going to be the worst one ever.All the indicators say shut the garage door, start the car up and breath deep. It's already 11/12 and I've only had 31+". If that isn't proof that we'll see no snow this Winter I don't know what is. How much did you end up with winter 87/88? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 How much did you end up with winter 87/88? Shhh...we dont want that winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 <b></b><b></b><b></b>Shhh...we dont want that winter! Actually that would be fine.. I was a year off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Well the EC op does give you near +10C 850s and highs in the 60s on Mon the 21st. Don't let that fool you...flip to arctic cold Nov 20....winter pattern locks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Don't let that fool you...flip to arctic cold Nov 20....winter pattern locks in. Good to see all op models and ensembles agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 So the 12Z suite is complete. Euro op has overall mild pattern interrupted by stabs of cold. They are tending to be a tad longer lasting with each one so it may be the signal for a gradient pattern that is decent for most of us in December. Thanksgiving week begins torchy with a strong cold fropa around turkey day. But there is no signal for a big time pattern change save for the gradient described above which may be the pattern we need to rely on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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