Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 For a day or weeks to come. JB already doing the moon walk, many more to follow LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 JB already doing the moon walk, many more to follow LOL. December is still up in the air. I wouldn't write it off yet..especially since we are so far away from it and models seem a little unstable at the end of their runs. That said, I haven't seen very encouraging stuff at least to start, but maybe it starts to show up in the next week. Who knows. We've had so many ridiculous December's as of late. Eventually, one will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 12z GFS shows a massive arctic outbreak for MT/WY/ID...-20C 850s well into Big Sky Country by Day 8-10. We'll see how it goes but I think some of the cold from the 1048mb high pressure over western Canada will make it here. into a gradient where a storm runs through interior SNE. you and i are on the same team now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 December is still up in the air. I wouldn't write it off yet..especially since we are so far away from it and models seem a little unstable at the end of their runs. That said, I haven't seen very encouraging stuff at least to start, but maybe it starts to show up in the next week. Who knows. We've had so many ridiculous December's as of late. Eventually, one will suck. Yeppers, Im making fun of all this toasterville nonsense. I stay firm.............November flame throwing torch...................Winter pounces on us in December. Until we get some blocking, and the -pna chills out we wait while Pete gets 3-6 from flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Yeppers, Im making fun of all this toasterville nonsense. I stay firm.............November flame throwing torch...................Winter pounces on us in December. Until we get some blocking, and the -pna chills out we wait while Pete gets 3-6 from flurries. 11/16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 "Weather" it ultimately impacts our weather aside, this 12z ECM has about an elephant of a cold air mass smashing south through western Canada D6-7, with rather nice looking -EPO wall guiding ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 "Weather" it ultimately impacts our weather aside, this 12z ECM has about an elephant of a cold air mass smashing south through western Canada D6-7, with rather nice looking -EPO wall guiding ... Ends up being a Lakes cutter after, followed by another cool shot, and then a swfe..only more like a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I tell you what ... after reviewing the D8 and 9... It wouldn't take a whole heck of a lot of fiddling with that larger scale synopsis and there'd be a hell to pay cold invasion for just about everyone N of an MV-MA line... That's the strongest yet -EPO signature, and then factoring in the old ECMWF "dig the trough too far SW" bias (does that still apply??), and viola... The dailies get smart and a lot of people end up surprised. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Ehh...snowstorm then it shows a mega torch. It'll change 1000 times over. Since we still have 90 percent of the leaves on the trees, we need 3-4 weeks to get these trees bare and then do a final cleanup. Trees around here are far from 90 pct foliated. In fact, I'm astounded in the change over the pst week. I'd say we'll be bare within another week. My green that Joe commented in when I posted the tubby squirrel pictures is now nearly 75 pct bare. The rain and wind have helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 <b></b><b></b><b></b>Trees around here are far from 90 pct foliated. In fact, I'm astounded in the change over the pst week. I'd say we'll be bare within another week. My green that Joe commented in when I posted the tubby squirrel pictures is now nearly 75 pct bare. The rain and wind have helped. Right after posting the quoted piece, this chubby fella was seen on the deck....eating away. Huge winter on the way. Even my wife's in the train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 nice to see the ground whitened up at okemo this afternoon, nice squall moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 AWT on today's runs..Cold pattern is really starting to gain a stranglehold middle of next week on.. Again AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I tell you what ... after reviewing the D8 and 9... It wouldn't take a whole heck of a lot of fiddling with that larger scale synopsis and there'd be a hell to pay cold invasion for just about everyone N of an MV-MA line... That's the strongest yet -EPO signature, and then factoring in the old ECMWF "dig the trough too far SW" bias (does that still apply??), and viola... The dailies get smart and a lot of people end up surprised. We'll see. MV-MA? 39.3/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 What the hell am I supposed to do with this CNN article title ?? " All 1,066 MF Global workers laid off " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Euro has a torch next weekend but the torches are becoming crimped in duration in the guidance. Also, it seems that the euro and it's ensembles want to develop somewhat of a more favorable EPO at the end of the run. December is going to rock after the first few days. I remind you how warm December started last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 AWT on today's runs..Cold pattern is really starting to gain a stranglehold middle of next week on.. Again AMOUT Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 December is still up in the air. I wouldn't write it off yet..especially since we are so far away from it and models seem a little unstable at the end of their runs. That said, I haven't seen very encouraging stuff at least to start, but maybe it starts to show up in the next week. Who knows. We've had so many ridiculous December's as of late. Eventually, one will suck. There is a possibility of an El Nino-like temperature distribution or a hybrid form of it with La Nina this December. For now, I've kept that potential confined to a shorter 7-10 day scale instead of a monthly-scale, given the other expected and more common factors that promote cooling. The highest impact areas would be the northern Plains/upper Midwest. There are a few things here that may promote a relative maximum of AAM this December: 1. Overall solar activity spike Sep-early Nov will have a lag effect on solar wind this December and that may promote an enhanced AAM state. 2. General tropical forcing will continue to quickly spiral to the non-La Nina forcing regions (not the whole time but more often than usual) 3. 50mb +QBO's relatively close peak with December This may not necessarily mean a warm period for the Northeast, however. This could look strange for a while, perhaps like a 67/54-like map for a bit. I don't think it will last the whole month, but I wouldn't be shocked either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Euro has a torch next weekend but the torches are becoming crimped in duration in the guidance. Also, it seems that the euro and it's ensembles want to develop somewhat of a more favorable EPO at the end of the run. December is going to rock after the first few days. I remind you how warm December started last year. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Euro has a torch next weekend but the torches are becoming crimped in duration in the guidance. Also, it seems that the euro and it's ensembles want to develop somewhat of a more favorable EPO at the end of the run. December is going to rock after the first few days. I remind you how warm December started last year. I say mid-winter/January is more impressive than December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 There is a possibility of an El Nino-like temperature distribution or a hybrid form of it with La Nina this December. For now, I've kept that potential confined to a shorter 7-10 day scale instead of a monthly-scale, given the other expected and more common factors that promote cooling. The highest impact areas would be the northern Plains/upper Midwest. There are a few things here that may promote a relative maximum of AAM this December: 1. Overall solar activity spike Sep-early Nov will have a lag effect on solar wind this December and that may promote an enhanced AAM state. 2. General tropical forcing will continue to quickly spiral to the non-La Nina forcing regions (not the whole time but more often than usual) 3. 50mb +QBO's relatively close peak with December This may not necessarily mean a warm period for the Northeast, however. This could look strange for a while, perhaps like a 67/54-like map for a bit. I don't think it will last the whole month, but I wouldn't be shocked either. The solar aspect it still a weak spot for me, but I do see the MJO phases perhaps trying to go Nino like you said. I'm hoping they try to at least weaken our trough out west to allow for some winter like cold to seep south, because I think it could if it weren't for that pesky trough. The euro ensembles do try to relax it a bit at the end of the run fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 HM I assume a westerly QBO is what's adding to the AAM helping to boost it positive, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 There is a possibility of an El Nino-like temperature distribution or a hybrid form of it with La Nina this December. For now, I've kept that potential confined to a shorter 7-10 day scale instead of a monthly-scale, given the other expected and more common factors that promote cooling. The highest impact areas would be the northern Plains/upper Midwest. There are a few things here that may promote a relative maximum of AAM this December: 1. Overall solar activity spike Sep-early Nov will have a lag effect on solar wind this December and that may promote an enhanced AAM state. 2. General tropical forcing will continue to quickly spiral to the non-La Nina forcing regions (not the whole time but more often than usual) 3. 50mb +QBO's relatively close peak with December This may not necessarily mean a warm period for the Northeast, however. This could look strange for a while, perhaps like a 67/54-like map for a bit. I don't think it will last the whole month, but I wouldn't be shocked either. AP index has take a huge drop in October promoting lower geomagnetic activity despite the increase in solar activity which is very interesting. With that being said the K-index remains on the lower side as well since the Geomagnetic activity isnt really picking up and the planetary AP index is very low for a max. When in your opinion do you see sustained cold across the East. Certainly the current pattern resembles, 2007, 2001 greatly. MJO continues to progress thru phases 5/6 and the AAM has seen a spike of recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 People say 2001 but I remind all how warm Canada was that winter. That was our main issue....no cold to access on our side of the NHEM. We've had many a mild winter but the extremity that year was largely due to no access available on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 possible homage to the fact that we live in an era where the coldest plausibility relative to a a pattern at large seems to keep verifying... there are "mixy" squalls dappled across the area. A co-working in middle state NY has 3" of snow since this morning in occasional S off the Lakes. Looks like a straight snow squall in S VT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 People say 2001 but I remind all how warm Canada was that winter. That was our main issue....no cold to access on our side of the NHEM. We've had many a mild winter but the extremity that year was largely due to no access available on our side. perhaps but it hasnt been cold at all anywhere that i can tell in canada yet yellowknife is running way above normal in november, and that translates on down to western canada in modified way. normally by this time i see on the news storms that have occurred out in the prairies and cold temps out west with snowpacks building on the 6 o clock news, havent seen anything of the sort this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 For a flip to colder than norm Where is the flip to winter pattern...no step down...that you called for after the 20th? Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 People say 2001 but I remind all how warm Canada was that winter. That was our main issue....no cold to access on our side of the NHEM. We've had many a mild winter but the extremity that year was largely due to no access available on our side. Really? I remember reading the exact opposite from a met. in the NYC forum last year I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 Really? I remember reading the exact opposite from a met. in the NYC forum last year I think... It wasnt cold up there until you got near Alaska. Central/Eastern Canada was a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Where is the image of Kevin in the toaster? Not the one that Ray has dropping the toaster in it...just the one with Kevin in the tub. Rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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