HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 That ship has long ago sailed, okemo is brown top to bottom, next week is an intergalacticdeathtorch Stowe got snow last night, but yeah, warm weather prevailing from now until...??? I wonder if the wind will move most of my leaves for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Stowe got snow last night, but yeah, warm weather prevailing from now until...??? I wonder if the wind will move most of my leaves for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Will or Scott, are you guys seeing any resemblance to late November/early December of '98 or '99? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Will or Scott, are you guys seeing any resemblance to late November/early December of '98 or '99? I don't see a resemblance to both at this time. It does sort of look like Dec 2001 on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I don't see a resemblance to both at this time. It does sort of look like Dec 2001 on the weeklies. Dec 1979??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Dec 1979??? 39" of snow en route for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I'm actually excited about a warm November. No reason for useless cold and snow in November. Torch through mid December please. dude, nothing wrong with being greedy. heh. snow and cold NOW through the end of APRIL, then 99/72 for 5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 dude, nothing wrong with being greedy. heh. snow and cold NOW through the end of APRIL, then 99/72 for 5 months. Agreed..with violence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 That ship has long ago sailed, okemo is brown top to bottom, next week is an intergalacticdeathtorch Possible Christmas opening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Overall it seems models have lost some of the blocking and really pimped out the trough out west. It all equals to weenies waiting a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I remain highly confident of a huge winter. November to April would be fine but it never happens. Late December through March has and will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Welp, not that anyone's been following these diatribes... but I still see things breaking colder post the 15th - there was question as to whether it would get cold abruptly or in stages; certainly appears the staging will be in order. White T-Giving still not ruled out! Anyway, the NAO is statically albeit modestly negative, but negative nonetheless. +1 for cold... The EPO is being stochastically handled by the GFS cluster, and from what I can gather almost as much so by the Euro group. However, the general gist there has modestly negative, too. +1 for cold. The PNA is currently ragingly negative. In static sense that would be about a +3 for warmth given the -3 SD, but the key there is that both the CPC/CDC agencies show a steady rise from the 15th - 30th of the month, ending around +1 for warmth (-1 SD). (+1 + +1 + -1)/3 = .33 on the cool side for that 2 week period ending this month. The deterministic versions of the various models are all showing cold loading into the 50th parallel over N/A, and the 850mb line extending from ~ ORD - NYC by or post the 2oth of the month. So using the blend is probably the course of least regret. As far as storminess, there doesn't appear to be anything to lock onto as most are likely suffering cabin fever over - haha. I don't know, but something about this ...20th - 30th almost smacks of an icy pattern, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Welp, not that anyone's been following these diatribes... but I still see things breaking colder post the 15th - there was question as to whether it would get cold abruptly or in stages; certainly appears the staging will be in order. White T-Giving still not ruled out! Anyway, the NAO is statically albeit modestly negative, but negative nonetheless. +1 for cold... The EPO is being stochastically handled by the GFS cluster, and from what I can gather almost as much so by the Euro group. However, the general gist there has modestly negative, too. +1 for cold. The PNA is currently ragingly negative. In static sense that would be about a +3 for warmth given the -3 SD, but the key there is that both the CPC/CDC agencies show a steady rise from the 15th - 30th of the month, ending around +1 for warmth (-1 SD). (+1 + +1 + -1)/3 = .33 on the cool side for that 2 week period ending this month. The deterministic versions of the various models are all showing cold loading into the 50th parallel over N/A, and the 850mb line extending from ~ ORD - NYC by or post the 2oth of the month. So using the blend is probably the course of least regret. As far as storminess, there doesn't appear to be anything to lock onto as most are likely suffering cabin fever over - haha. I don't know, but something about this ...20th - 30th almost smacks of an icy pattern, too. Yup..I've been beating this drum for the past week..and most of the other folks keep saying no cold coming, no pattern change..warmth well ino December..no blocking.. I'm not seeing where they're getting these ideas from..since most signs are pointing to a colder than normal pattern starting around the 20th onwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 John I think we'll see a cool down later next week and then perhaps another one near T-Day, but I'm having trouble seeing anything sustainable right now. Possible weak MJO signal going to phase 1 and 2 perhaps argues for some cooler wx post T-Day perhaps. The thing that is killing us is the lack of blocking after next week and also the mega -PNA, but perhaps that relaxes beyond d10. I suppose the one thing to watch is a brief intrusion of cold air and some storminess in the d18-21 timeframe that could....could offer a slight possibility for frozen...especially up in NNE, but that is out there. Even if it did occur, in my eyes...the pattern could turn more milder again beyond the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Welp, not that anyone's been following these diatribes... but I still see things breaking colder post the 15th - there was question as to whether it would get cold abruptly or in stages; certainly appears the staging will be in order. White T-Giving still not ruled out! Anyway, the NAO is statically albeit modestly negative, but negative nonetheless. +1 for cold... The EPO is being stochastically handled by the GFS cluster, and from what I can gather almost as much so by the Euro group. However, the general gist there has modestly negative, too. +1 for cold. The PNA is currently ragingly negative. In static sense that would be about a +3 for warmth given the -3 SD, but the key there is that both the CPC/CDC agencies show a steady rise from the 15th - 30th of the month, ending around +1 for warmth (-1 SD). (+1 + +1 + -1)/3 = .33 on the cool side for that 2 week period ending this month. The deterministic versions of the various models are all showing cold loading into the 50th parallel over N/A, and the 850mb line extending from ~ ORD - NYC by or post the 2oth of the month. So using the blend is probably the course of least regret. As far as storminess, there doesn't appear to be anything to lock onto as most are likely suffering cabin fever over - haha. I don't know, but something about this ...20th - 30th almost smacks of an icy pattern, too. Good luck Tip, you nailed the week of freak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 GFS says some are getting plenty of snow Thanksgiving weekend. I'll bun myself.,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 GFS says some are getting plenty of snow Thanksgiving weekend. I'll bun myself.,, 328hr gfs? Locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 John I think we'll see a cool down later next week and then perhaps another one near T-Day, but I'm having trouble seeing anything sustainable right now. Possible weak MJO signal going to phase 1 and 2 perhaps argues for some cooler wx post T-Day perhaps. The thing that is killing us is the lack of blocking after next week and also the mega -PNA, but perhaps that relaxes beyond d10. I suppose the one thing to watch is a brief intrusion of cold air and some storminess in the d18-21 timeframe that could....could offer a slight possibility for frozen...especially up in NNE, but that is out there. Even if it did occur, in my eyes...the pattern could turn more milder again beyond the 20th. Yes, agree in principle there - more than less what I was getting at with stages... That said, I didn't labor into it but there are other reasons why I suspect cold gets in and does so more prodigiously than the deterministic, and even ensmble guidance blend would suggest. Some of that inclination is derived by the colder than normal mid and upper level satellite soundings ... that appears pretty much everywhere in the NH, too, interestingly enough. The other is snow cover up N not appearing to be an accident. I see a -.5 EPO/NOA mode as being more effective than normal for cold loading into the 50th parallel than normal for that kind of register. It's as intangible as the '04 Patriots having mediocre talent on paper, but together they were unstopable. Or not ...we'll see. But don't be shocked just the same if for some reason a well timed polar high transits N and we get ice/mix and snow from an open wave passing S after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 12z GFS shows a massive arctic outbreak for MT/WY/ID...-20C 850s well into Big Sky Country by Day 8-10. We'll see how it goes but I think some of the cold from the 1048mb high pressure over western Canada will make it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Yes, agree in principle there - more than less what I was getting at with stages... That said, I didn't labor into it but there are other reasons why I suspect cold gets in and does so more prodigiously than the deterministic, and even ensmble guidance blend would suggest. Some of that inclination is derived by the colder than normal mid and upper level satellite soundings ... that appears pretty much everywhere in the NH, too, interestingly enough. The other is snow cover up N not appearing to be an accident. I see a -.5 EPO/NOA mode as being more effective than normal for cold loading into the 50th parallel than normal for that kind of register. It's as intangible as the '04 Patriots having mediocre talent on paper, but together they were unstopable. Or not ...we'll see. But don't be shocked just the same if for some reason a well timed polar high transits N and we get ice/mix and snow from an open wave passing S after the 20th. Yeah I think it's a low prob, but that's the timeframe I hinted at earlier..especially up in NNE, but those polar airmasses can sink south...I know what you mean. I guess Kevin would call that a complete pattern change..but I wish that pattern around hr 168-200 or so would continue. That's the pattern to cash in on, but it appears the EPO wants to switch considerably after the 20th which would try to warm us up perhaps. I'm on the transient train for now until after T-Day and perhaps longer. Never say never in this field....hopefully the models look a little better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 GFS may be a little too progressive in weakening the -PNA out west, but we'll see what the models do today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 GFS may be a little too progressive in weakening the -PNA out west, but we'll see what the models do today. It's possible alot of AWT's are flying around this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 It's possible alot of AWT's are flying around this afternoon I would wait a few days to start high giving and chest bumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 This is hilarious, same ****ing thing every November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Now we hang our hat on the 300 hr + gfs operational run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Now we hang our hat on the 300 hr + gfs operational run? Ehh...snowstorm then it shows a mega torch. It'll change 1000 times over. Since we still have 90 percent of the leaves on the trees, we need 3-4 weeks to get these trees bare and then do a final cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 It's possible alot of AWT's are flying around this afternoon For a transient cold shot? You'll somehow spin that to an AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 For a transient cold shot? You'll somehow spin that to an AWT. For a flip to colder than norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Yeah I think it's a low prob, but that's the timeframe I hinted at earlier..especially up in NNE, but those polar airmasses can sink south...I know what you mean. I guess Kevin would call that a complete pattern change..but I wish that pattern around hr 168-200 or so would continue. That's the pattern to cash in on, but it appears the EPO wants to switch considerably after the 20th which would try to warm us up perhaps. I'm on the transient train for now until after T-Day and perhaps longer. Never say never in this field....hopefully the models look a little better today. Lmao when I saw the 12z GFS ... it did exactly that for T-G day! Transit high N, open wave S, background pattern has SE ridge warm appeal, yet we freeze our nads in a mix event. I hate to say ...eerily as it were, this was pretty much exactly what I visualized this morning. Now, let's verify the f'er wow, this run is actually more agressive with the cold in the lower troposphere than even I was intimating though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 For a flip to colder than norm For a day or weeks to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.