ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Any chance of Tip's snowstorm? What are you talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Look at 18z GFS... its pretty close at 138 Monday night? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 It looks like ensembles are still agreeing on ending the warm regime, but it does not look like we will be entering any type of longer term cold regime for the foreseeable future. Basically seasonable. No real sign of arctic air in Canada either during this time. Everything still on the other side of the pole. Let it sit over in Eurasia. Hopefully the ensembles are right and kill that ridge over near the Europe/Russia border. While not anomalous cold..at least nrn Canada is cold enough to support snow. We need to build that snowpack up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Let it sit over in Eurasia. Hopefully the ensembles are right and kill that ridge over near the Europe/Russia border. While not anomalous cold..at least nrn Canada is cold enough to support snow. We need to build that snowpack up. We'll probably finish the month below avg in NH snow cover. We'll just have to overcome it. Its not a death sentence, its just one small piece you'd like to have in your favor. We managed just fine after Oct 2008 was putrid for NH snow cover. 2007 sucked too and we had no problem getting off to a fast start that December. On the flip side, 2006 was great and we know how that winter worked out, lol. At any rate, it definitely looks we'll be waiting for sometime before we get any hint of an arctic shot. Maybe we see it in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 We'll probably finish the month below avg in NH snow cover. We'll just have to overcome it. Its not a death sentence, its just one small piece you'd like to have in your favor. We managed just fine after Oct 2008 was putrid for NH snow cover. 2007 sucked too and we had no problem getting off to a fast start that December. On the flip side, 2006 was great and we know how that winter worked out, lol. At any rate, it definitely looks we'll be waiting for sometime before we get any hint of an arctic shot. Maybe we see it in early November. I agree. Unless we see the snowpack in central and western Russia build up substantially..it probably comes in below normal. Last year had a nice cover of white further west in central Russia compared to now. Maybe we see a rush in things during the final days. I remember the discussions we had back in '08 about it, so I'm not too worried as there are so many other variables in the climate system. I will say that it is nice to see a more active jet developing in the CONUS. Notice these strong lows now modeled in the runs. The season is changing slowly but surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 What are you talking about. His snowstorm thread about early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 His snowstorm thread about early November. I saw talking about possibility of snow in early November, but nothing about a snowstorm. It would only take a well timed transient cold shot with some moisture to produce some flakes or even a coating in early November. Its certainly possible, but impossible to say anything definitive this far out. Right now, it does not look like we are about to enter any sort of prolonged cold regime. Average to above average should be the deal between now and Halloween at least....maybe after Halloween we will see a little more of a signal for colder air, but that is a long ways out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 We're basically just seeing the mid latitude westerlies come south to their normal latitude, which will allow troughs to amplify while remaining within the flow, rather than getting cut off, like has been happening in the last 6 weeks. So we'll see "normal" swings in temperature / storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I know it is 7 days away but boy that area of low pressure is impressive on the GFS in the time frame around the 20th of the month. The Euro sorta has it, the trough position is there, but the low is not as well defined. GFS brings the 540 line down to Georgia. Kinda impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I know it is 7 days away but boy that area of low pressure is impressive on the GFS in the time frame around the 20th of the month. The Euro sorta has it, the trough position is there, but the low is not as well defined. GFS brings the 540 line down to Georgia. Kinda impressive. It almost looks like one of those pattern changer type storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Kinda interesting to see what the GFS does with it. You have that first shortwave that drops out of Montana into Missouri and then moves through the Great Lakes. But all the while you have this second shortwave that is kinda just lurking in the shadows that drops out of Canada and just follows in the flow created by the GL storm. But once it gets into the central part of the country it takes the trough left by the GL storm and amplifies it and then some. Turning into our "pattern changer" (or we hope) of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Kinda interesting to see what the GFS does with it. You have that first shortwave that drops out of Montana into Missouri and then moves through the Great Lakes. But all the while you have this second shortwave that is kinda just lurking in the shadows that drops out of Canada and just follows in the flow created by the GL storm. But once it gets into the central part of the country it takes the trough left by the GL storm and amplifies it and then some. Turning into our "pattern changer" (or we hope) of a storm. Def a dynamic storm at all levels.. too bad it wasn't winter.. but it could be a major storm nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Even in the winter we might struggle with this storm unless we had a wealth of antecedent cold air. That first low that exits through the GL might be enough to bring in some warm air. But who knows, Should be a good soaker(another one? com'on) for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 It may not be too far after that ECM bomb though that we encounter the season's first colder profiled system... The overnight ensemble derivatives look cold closing out the month. Hey Will, I didn't see you had this thread already, and it seems pretty clearly in the same ilk as the one I started about the first week of November maybe containing snow... If you want to merge that one in here that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 It may not be too far after that ECM bomb though that we encounter the season's first colder profiled system... The overnight ensemble derivatives look cold closing out the month. Hey Will, I didn't see you had this thread already, and it seems pretty clearly in the same ilk as the one I started about the first week of November maybe containing snow... If you want to merge that one in here that's cool. Thoughts on the bomb tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Thoughts on the bomb tip? Don't really have any at the moment... I'm more interesting in the fact that we have a powerful negative tilted trough rolling N up the coast... Foresee some decent thunder potential - I mentioned this the other day and it still seems a real possibility... Tor warns and watches in the MA and we have [possible unusual] scenario where mechanical lift is excessive - to mention backside isollobaric wind pulse as the parent low wraps into eastern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I suppose it's that time of year for the weeklies update. I'll start at week 3 since the ensembles go into the second week. Week 3 features a ridge that looks to be elongated sw-ne in the Gulf of Alaska with weak trough anomalies that stretch from Kamchatka into the polar regions and over Greenland. Very week ridging appears across Hudson Bay and into ne Canada, but temps looks seasonable around these parts overall. Week 4 is interesting. It features ridging across Kamchatka into ne Siberia and out into the Pacific...basically stretched in a w-e fashion. They also feature some pretty good trough anomalies across the north pole stretching down into nrn Canada and then se into the Davis Straits and a secondary anomaly near the southern tip of Greenland. Verbatim, it would be a strong jet blasting into western Canada....normally not good, but might get bent down across the Great Lakes. At least it gets pretty dam cold across nrn and nw Canada. Temps in week 4 overall seem to be near normal at this time. Take them fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I suppose it's that time of year for the weeklies update. I'll start at week 3 since the ensembles go into the second week. Week 3 features a ridge that looks to be elongated sw-ne in the Gulf of Alaska with weak trough anomalies that stretch from Kamchatka into the polar regions and over Greenland. Very week ridging appears across Hudson Bay and into ne Canada, but temps looks seasonable around these parts overall. Week 4 is interesting. It features ridging across Kamchatka into ne Siberia and out into the Pacific...basically stretched in a w-e fashion. They also feature some pretty good trough anomalies across the north pole stretching down into nrn Canada and then se into the Davis Straits and a secondary anomaly near the southern tip of Greenland. Verbatim, it would be a strong jet blasting into western Canada....normally not good, but might get bent down across the Great Lakes. At least it gets pretty dam cold across nrn and nw Canada. Temps in week 4 overall seem to be near normal at this time. Take them fwiw. Does not sound like any big pattern change, at least not yet, this is a tough time of year, hard to be patient but its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Does not sound like any big pattern change, at least not yet, this is a tough time of year, hard to be patient but its coming. No, and I wouldn't expect it either. It's that time of year where I figure I'll try to describe how they look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Nice to see sub 522's finally coming into Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 Nice to see sub 522's finally coming into Hudson Bay. Hint of a -EPO finally showing up after 300 hours? There's some ridging N of AK producing a bit of cross polar flow. That's the first time I've seen that on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hint of a -EPO finally showing up after 300 hours? There's some ridging N of AK producing a bit of cross polar flow. That's the first time I've seen that on the ensembles. Yeah that and the ridge in extreme eastern Scandinavia poking the PV into Canada. The EPO would fit the weeklies at week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hint of a -EPO finally showing up after 300 hours? There's some ridging N of AK producing a bit of cross polar flow. That's the first time I've seen that on the ensembles. That's a stretch and a half You're looking at today's GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 That's a stretch and a half You're looking at today's GFS ensembles? No the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 Yeah that and the ridge in extreme eastern Scandinavia poking the PV into Canada. The EPO would fit the weeklies at week 3. That might be the first real hint at any possible cold pattern down the road. The Scandinavian ridge can often lead to a -NAO down the road as part of it retrogrades....getting some decent cold on the Canadian side is the other part of the equation. Its over 300 hours and we are talking about even beyond 360 hours when trying to extrapolate that pattern, but it would definitely lead to a colder look...probably below average. We'll have to see how it evolves. They often try to rush the regime changes...but its refreshing to see something different in the longer range. Maybe the start of the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 OT: but did we identify our signature storm for the LRC yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 That's a stretch and a half You're looking at today's GFS ensembles? I hardly ever look at the GFS ensembles beyond 10 days anymore...the Euro ensembles absolutely embarrassed them last winter beyond that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 That might be the first real hint at any possible cold pattern down the road. The Scandinavian ridge can often lead to a -NAO down the road as part of it retrogrades....getting some decent cold on the Canadian side is the other part of the equation. Its over 300 hours and we are talking about even beyond 360 hours when trying to extrapolate that pattern, but it would definitely lead to a colder look...probably below average. We'll have to see how it evolves. They often try to rush the regime changes...but its refreshing to see something different in the longer range. Maybe the start of the process. I'm with you on the rushing part..but it may be the delayed and not denied thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 I hardly ever look at the GFS ensembles beyond 10 days anymore...the Euro ensembles absolutely embarrassed them last winter beyond that time frame. Oh okay haha. Good to hear then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 I hardly ever look at the GFS ensembles beyond 10 days anymore...the Euro ensembles absolutely embarrassed them last winter beyond that time frame. LOL, I'm with you 100% on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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