ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 Yeah exactly. Wavelengths can be an issue and sometimes the NAO won't mean much if eastern Canada isn't that cold. Obviously, that is more of an issue this time of year. We def seem to have a real change around Thanksgiving usually when the teleconnectors seem to dominate the pattern a little better. Obviously people have to look at everything and not just one factor. As we know, not all -NAOs are equal. A lot can depend on how the Pacific side looks and even the position of the NAO blocking. Whats good is that by the end of the Euro ensembles, you can def see some colder air being pushed more into eastern Canada. That could help us out if we keep a -NAO into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 We def seem to have a real change around Thanksgiving usually when the teleconnectors seem to dominate the pattern a little better. Obviously people have to look at everything and not just one factor. As we know, not all -NAOs are equal. A lot can depend on how the Pacific side looks and even the position of the NAO blocking. Whats good is that by the end of the Euro ensembles, you can def see some colder air being pushed more into eastern Canada. That could help us out if we keep a -NAO into December. Hopefully the weeklies are promising for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Euro puts -24C at 850 in British Columbia. That is absolutely frigid for this time of year. That's impressive a month from now. In Dec you probably see that stuff bleed a lot more efficiently over the lakes and into New England with the longwave pattern we have progged. Was on the phone with the folks in AK today. Cold and snowy for November even by their standards. Going sub-zero with regularity and 24-30" on the valley floor in the last 5 days. - INCLUDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL 500 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011 .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 15 TO 25. LIGHT WINDS. .TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 10 TO 20 ABOVE EXCEPT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE TOWARD THE PARK. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH. .VETERANS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 15 TO 25. VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 5 TO 15 ABOVE. .SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 15 TO 25. LOWS 5 TO 15 ABOVE. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE TEENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Large Large winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I'll take that bet. 6 pack of Sam Adams You don't drink..And if you do..they're lime Zimas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 EPO hellz yeah i want to get a shirt that say EPO on the front with a big negative sign on the back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I'm just psyched that in 10-12 short days winter pattern is locked in. Some yrs its a step down..some yrs the hammer drops..This yr it"s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 EPO hellz yeah i want to get a shirt that say EPO on the front with a big negative sign on the back Yeah an extremely one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 I'm just psyched that in 10-12 short days winter pattern is locked in. Some yrs its a step down..some yrs the hammer drops..This yr it"s Lol, its not locking in. Good cooldown for Nov 18-19 and then it likely moderates for 3-5 days before possibly another cold ****. That would be my best guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Was just reading the pattern change thread from last year. Its funny how pumped people were getting on 11/14 for a cold shot around thanksgiving. You would of thought it was for a major noreaster. Kevin almost has the same posts last year as this year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Lol, its not locking in. Good cooldown for Nov 18-19 and then it likely moderates for 3-5 days before possibly another cold ****. That would be my best guess right now. IMO it is a lockdown. I think we flip the switch seemingly overnite..We'll see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I also see the opportunity for a snow event somewhere around the 19-21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Like this one.... haha I stand by my thoughts that we do not torch early next week and the cold does not give way like euro shows and instead we are just a little above normal and the cold pattern is in place by Thanksgiving day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 There were a few Tobin Tumbler posts early in December too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 There were a few Tobin Tumbler posts early in December too. I saw one in mid november in that thread. Also, I saw a post from NW CONNECTICUT saying "this patterns just gonna be the day 10 threat" on 11/15. Only if he knew at that time it would be another 5 weeks until the first major snow lol. Scott and Phil did a good job of calming down weenies. LOL I had to post this one from BIrving Can't speak for anyone else....but I'd take 3" of tree ripping, elm eradicating, oak owning zr accumulation right now or any day. Forget snow, bring on the iiice. Only if he knew what would come 10/30/11 and that snow would do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i'll be in florida for the fri -sat transient cool shot...hopefully back by mon nite/or tues am. HOPEFULLY then getting ready for a nice weekend in VT next weekend. hopefully sugar bush or somewhere is open next friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Really looks like a transient cool down around the 18th, an impressive warm up heading into tday week, hopefully another cool shot can get in before tday to make it more festive. Pattern looks classic for a memorable December, especially for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 yes...end of gfs crushes dreams for thanksgiving week--granted it's crap after about day 8. these maps really are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Really looks like a transient cool down around the 18th, an impressive warm up heading into tday week, hopefully another cool shot can get in before tday to make it more festive. Pattern looks classic for a memorable December, especially for the interior. December is 21 days away.. how can you say the pattern looks good for a memorable December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 December is 21 days away.. how can you say the pattern looks good for a memorable December? -NAO showing up in late Nov is probably a good thing for December, but it is definitely too early to say with much confidence that December will have a good pattern. I'd lean toward colder here with the NAO showing up the way it is, but the PAC can orient itself in a manner that renders the NAO ineffective if it conspired against us perfectly. All I can say is that anyone who is expecting a longer term winter pattern to set in before the end of the month is probably in for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 December is 21 days away.. how can you say the pattern looks good for a memorable December? -pna shows signs of relaxing, -nao, fairly robust se ridge, and bitter cold in western canada sliding east in a gradient fashion, would all be good signs for a storm track riding the BR perhaps over the south coast or just south.........leading to snowy times especially away from the coastal plain, but perhaps including it. Just an opinion sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 -NAO showing up in late Nov is probably a good thing for December, but it is definitely too early to say with much confidence that December will have a good pattern. I'd lean toward colder here with the NAO showing up the way it is, but the PAC can orient itself in a manner that renders the NAO ineffective if it conspired against us perfectly. All I can say is that anyone who is expecting a longer term winter pattern to set in before the end of the month is probably in for disappointment. I think it's just one in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 -NAO showing up in late Nov is probably a good thing for December, but it is definitely too early to say with much confidence that December will have a good pattern. I'd lean toward colder here with the NAO showing up the way it is, but the PAC can orient itself in a manner that renders the NAO ineffective if it conspired against us perfectly. All I can say is that anyone who is expecting a longer term winter pattern to set in before the end of the month is probably in for disappointment. I agree...any angst is entirely unfounded, imo.....who cares if takes a few weeks for a more stable wintery pattern to establish itself.....why in the world most would want to waste it right now is beyond me. I see absolutely no reason for pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I think we are in excellent position for a productive December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 I agree...any angst is entirely unfounded, imo.....who cares if takes a few weeks for a more stable wintery pattern to establish itself.....why in the world most would want to waste it right now is beyond me. I see absolutely no reason for pessimism. If we keep a somewhat RNA pattern out west while we have a -EPO, then we could be setting ourselves up for a favorable gradient pattern in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 There were a few Tobin Tumbler posts early in December too. I didn't get it last year, either....I lost it when the Boxing day event screwed me, but I never felt as though the season's fate was in peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I think we are in excellent position for a productive December Could not agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 If we keep a somewhat RNA pattern out west while we have a -EPO, then we could be setting ourselves up for a favorable gradient pattern in December. I'm praying for a snow event from the 16-17 of December and another one on the 26-27 of December.. I'd love to track an event my last few days in Cali Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Could not agree more. I feel like every year it's the same issue with some getting antsy. It'll get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 If we keep a somewhat RNA pattern out west while we have a -EPO, then we could be setting ourselves up for a favorable gradient pattern in December. Getting the Pac to cooperate heading into December is key, And if we can get a -EPO and a -NAO as well i think winter will get kicked off to the fashion that everyone wants to see, Let the cold and snow build in the areas that will help us retain cold this winter now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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