Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 -PNA does not allow sustained cold until After Dec 1. Transient cool shots, one just before Tday, another just after.............everything collapses se early December, potential for heavy snows inland all month, CP is a step down process, expect at least one or two coastal huggers or an inside runner, set up the blocking 50/50 game on for Xmas, deep snowpack. Quick hitting winter, Jan icebox followed by Feb thaw, NINA climo Summer starts early in March. But big big snow and cold Dec 5-Feb1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Gonna be longer than I thought I guess.. Gonna be a long month of ZzzzzZzZzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Gonna be longer than I thought I guess.. Gonna be a long month of ZzzzzZzZzzzzz Every year we do this. Embrace the torch and watch things unfold to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Gonna be longer than I thought I guess.. Gonna be a long month of ZzzzzZzZzzzzz Cold pattern starts in 10-12 days and by the holiday we're cold and snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Cold pattern starts in 10-12 days and by the holiday we're cold and snowing I'd say moderation starts then and were cold by Dec 1 and were snowing by the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Cold pattern starts in 10-12 days and by the holiday we're cold and snowing The holiday is only 2 weeks away... if were tracking a snow threat on the 20th ill shake your hand and call you a boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The holiday is only 2 weeks away... if were tracking a snow threat on the 20th ill shake your hand and call you my daddy Jeez, I would not go that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 GFS has a pretty potent cold shot at day 10 but then litchfield works his magic and we are cooking turkeys in shorts and tank tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 My 18th birthday is only 2 weeks away... if you'd like on the 20th ill let you spank my ass and call me a monkey's uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Cold pattern starts in 10-12 days and by the holiday we're cold and snowing i dont see anything i'm laying out my shorts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 i dont see anything i'm laying out my shorts now. Nice lakes cutter around the 15th on the euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The euro op does try to cool us off after day 7 or 8, but doesn't really have ensemble support right now. It could be one of those transient shots we talked about. We'll probably have some step downs that occur before T-Day with ups and downs before any possible long term change. The important thing is western and even southern Canada is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The euro op does try to cool us off after day 7 or 8, but doesn't really have ensemble support right now. It could be one of those transient shots we talked about. We'll probably have some step downs that occur before T-Day with ups and downs before any possible long term change. The important thing is western and even southern Canada is pretty cold. The euro op and the ensembles aren't far off at day 8 or so, but the euro op is more bullish with the EPO and NAO hence a little more colder. EC ensembles also have a good se ridge. 12z EC ensembles will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The euro op does try to cool us off after day 7 or 8, but doesn't really have ensemble support right now. It could be one of those transient shots we talked about. We'll probably have some step downs that occur before T-Day with ups and downs before any possible long term change. The important thing is western and even southern Canada is pretty cold. GFS does this same thing.. torch.. cold shot.. torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 GFS does this same thing.. torch.. cold shot.. torch Like Scooter said step down, and if you like snow and cold, dont be upset to see a couple cutters or inside runners.....................these could potentially set up the right pattern for December. 50/50 blocking etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Like Scooter said step down, and if you like snow and cold, dont be upset to see a couple cutters or inside runners.....................these could potentially set up the right pattern for December. 50/50 blocking etc. I'm not upset at all.. I'm ready for a month of snooze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Like Scooter said step down, and if you like snow and cold, dont be upset to see a couple cutters or inside runners.....................these could potentially set up the right pattern for December. 50/50 blocking etc. We'll probably have a few cutters coming up including next week. We had them last December too and everyone was crying about a possible lousy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The euro op does try to cool us off after day 7 or 8, but doesn't really have ensemble support right now. It could be one of those transient shots we talked about. We'll probably have some step downs that occur before T-Day with ups and downs before any possible long term change. The important thing is western and even southern Canada is pretty cold. Sounds like typical November weather..no surprise here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The GFS has had that first cutter for several runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The GFS has had that first cutter for several runs now Welcome to La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 if you run through this loop, especially early on, you can see the terrific transport of cold air from russia into the conus. unfortunately for us it's the northwest us in this setup. it then shifts eastward over south/southeast canada but the southeast/western atlantic ridge is still well established. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The euro op does try to cool us off after day 7 or 8, but doesn't really have ensemble support right now. It could be one of those transient shots we talked about. We'll probably have some step downs that occur before T-Day with ups and downs before any possible long term change. The important thing is western and even southern Canada is pretty cold. getting flat out frigid with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 GFS keeps hinting at a storm for the midwest around day 10-12... possible change to pattern after that? I posted this 4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 i'd rather see that frigid cold build in n/w/c canada for now. conducive to a good snow pack and solid source region later on. no sense in having it drop down into the lower 48 and modify into 45F daytime highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I think all of us on the east coast need to begrudgingly accept that the cold air/pattern change is gonna' wait until Thanksgiving-12/1 of course, one of you lucky bums in the hills may get a fluke before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 getting flat out frigid with time. Sure is. It does seem like that if we had that pattern a month or more from now..it likely would be a colder regime, as wavelengths would probably be larger. With smaller wavelengths now...we have lots of ridges and troughs. Maybe not...but something I thought about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 i'd rather see that frigid cold build in n/w/c canada for now. conducive to a good snow pack and solid source region later on. no sense in having it drop down into the lower 48 and modify into 45F daytime highs. Agreed....that's why I would rather it wait until December. Let the snow build up in Canada...it needs to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I think all of us on the east coast need to begrudgingly accept that the cold air/pattern change is gonna' wait until Thanksgiving-12/1 of course, one of you lucky bums in the hills may get a fluke before then You are very correct, T-day seems spot on. No doubt now that much colder regime will invade. The dam is building, it will break as the Turkey roasts. Good times coming up. enjoy the while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Euro brings in winter days 8-10 and keeps it here AMOUT..Has ens support. Nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Euro brings in winter days 8-10 and keeps it here AMOUT..Has ens support. Nice to see Transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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