Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 In CT I don't even begin to follow the models regularly looking for snow until late November and fully realizing my chances are low until mid December. You live on the water in SE CT. It never snows there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Don't agree. nov. is a cold wx month awful perspective you must have a barney the dinosaur ....ho hum attitude and at no point can you gripe i want cold now so the snow guns can turn on and blow snow so mid november (nov 18-20) wknd i can ski and enjoy myself in either sugarloaf or stowe or bretton woods. i understand climo and i understand the CP of SNE has zero shot of sustaining what rare november snow ever rarely falls. and i also understand the next ten days are mostly torch and are awful for getting resorts primed to open on time. If someone doesnt care about that ...no biggie. but the ski community is eagerly awaiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 awful perspective you must have a barney the dinosaur ....ho hum attitude and at no point can you gripe i want cold now so the snow guns can turn on and blow snow so mid november (nov 18-20) wknd i can ski and enjoy myself in either sugarloaf or stowe or bretton woods. i understand climo and i understand the CP of SNE has zero shot of sustaining what rare november snow ever rarely falls. and i also understand the next ten days are mostly torch and are awful for getting resorts primed to open on time. If someone doesnt care about that ...no biggie. but the ski community is eagerly awaiting There are two perspectives...well three actually. The ski areas in NNE want the cold and snow so at the very least, they can blow the hillsides white. Where Kevin and Will are..they want to see snow events as November starts to increase the chance almost exponentially..especially by T-Day. On the coast, it takes one hell of a cold airmass to get snow...even into mid December. Personally I'd rather see the progression to gradual cold in November and let the hammer drop in December when I can actually have chances of snow. What I don't want to see is a horrible Pacific pattern conducive to a blowtorch. Luckily, I don't really see that....even if we have a strong -PNA. Though temps aren't cold as shown with a somewhat favorable pattern..wavelengths are still short this time of year. I think if we had what is shown on the EC ensembles in mid December on...it would be a lot colder in the north tier of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 LOL, too early to say that right now...I just want to see how everything shakes out. It's possible things may be a little transient at first. I guess I'm just saying everything is pointing towards a monster winter.. right now its just a matter of waiting.. to tell you the truth, I'd rather have a later start to winter, that might mean a bigger Feb and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 awful perspective you must have a barney the dinosaur ....ho hum attitude and at no point can you gripe i want cold now so the snow guns can turn on and blow snow so mid november (nov 18-20) wknd i can ski and enjoy myself in either sugarloaf or stowe or bretton woods. i understand climo and i understand the CP of SNE has zero shot of sustaining what rare november snow ever rarely falls. and i also understand the next ten days are mostly torch and are awful for getting resorts primed to open on time. If someone doesnt care about that ...no biggie. but the ski community is eagerly awaiting So they open a couple weeks late.. NNE is going to get crushed this winter which will mean skiing into May... I can see your argument if its December 8 but it's only November 8 Ask powderfreak about starting off slow in NNE, he had a first hand look at it last year and then look what happened. 150" later he's skiing until May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 So they open a couple weeks late.. NNE is going to get crushed this winter which will mean skiing into May... I can see your argument if its December 8 but it's only November 8 Ask powderfreak about starting off slow in NNE, he had a first hand look at it last year and then look what happened. 150" later he's skiing until May yes it is by no means the end of the world. but at the same time....opening a couple weeks late when you got two weekends in late november with free room and board and ez access to ski areas does blow for me. i hope NNE gets bombed but nothing is set in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 On the EC ensembles, Pacific is still not the best looking, but heights do come up in Greenland. That combined with that deep trough retrograding a bit to the west helps lower heights in the east near T-Day. Probably a slow step down type deal that really doesn't come i until after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 So they open a couple weeks late.. NNE is going to get crushed this winter which will mean skiing into May... I can see your argument if its December 8 but it's only November 8 Ask powderfreak about starting off slow in NNE, he had a first hand look at it last year and then look what happened. 150" later he's skiing until May Well they way I have always heard it told is that the ski resorts are more likely to make money by having snow for Thanksgiving than they are by having late season snow. By April with spring and baseball, people don't travel up here for the skiing unless they are hardcore. Being open for a 4 day Thanksgiving weekend can give a big boost early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I told you guys ... after the 15th... You're pulling teeth unnecessarily getting old bunged up over this crap right now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I told you guys ... after the 15th... You're pulling teeth unnecessarily getting old bunged up over this crap right now - Meh, we're going to be a little on the torchy side well past the 15th. I might concede to a Thanksgiving cold snap. Otherwise, I do think we're waiting until mid December for any notable wintry pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Don't agree. nov. is a cold wx month November 15th has the temperature clime of 4/1 roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 1979-1980 incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 November 15th has the temperature clime of 4/1 roughly. Boom. Roasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I cant' wait for this really warm spell to end--just going to near seasonal temps will be good with me. In the meantime, I'll be escaping this torch for the next 36 hours as I head to Iowa for there first snow of the young season--up to 5" is forecasted. Meanwhile, a hateful 46.3/46, up from 45.6. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Looks like the change to cold happens day10-11. So we now have the timing of the pattern change in sight and it appears to be sooner rather than later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Hope you are right KeV. What are you seeing? Euro OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Hope you are right KeV. What are you seeing? Euro OP? GFS/Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 If its warm thanksgiving day...what a disaster that will. E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 If its warm thanksgiving day...what a disaster that will. E I'm in DC. I expected warmth and by golly I got it. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Once the cold comes it will come a plenty and hibernation mode will commence. You'll all be shoveling and plowing endlessly come December. Stop signs will get shorter, hydrants will disappear, and cars will be hard to find. We'll all become sesaoned and dedicated snow removers by the time this winter is done with us. Trust me on this one, if you are a left over fading cricket or a partially withered impatien plant that survived on the warmer south side, the soon to be widespread hard freeze will put an abrupt end to their painstakingly slow demise from their summer peak. Cold is a loading and cryosphere will get its say very soon. Winter, shoveling and skiing are right around the corner . Maybe a winter we tell our grandkids about . Like the last one we just went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Looks like the change to cold happens day10-11. So we now have the timing of the pattern change in sight and it appears to be sooner rather than later I'm thinking past T-Day for anything notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I'm thinking past T-Day for anything notable. Temps are still only near normal even at the end of the EC ensembles. It's really not a pattern change. This will be later rather than soon. AWT. In fact, Sam might be right and we may have to wait until December for anything sustainable, but I don't know about that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Temps are still only near normal even at the end of the EC ensembles. It's really not a pattern change. This will be later rather than soon. AWT. In fact, Sam might be right and we may have to wait until December for anything sustainable, but I don't know about that yet. 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 1993 One of the next surprise snow events ever? Dec 29, 1993?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The pattern isn't a torch verbatim and is more seasonable at the end of the run, so that's good...but the cold air is still stubborn to come south thanks to the west coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 One of the next surprise snow events ever? Dec 29, 1993?? We did get the transient cold Thanksgiving and a little cold/snow mid December before the historic 2month run started in late December. There are similarities in sensible wx if not in ssta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 We did get the transient cold Thanksgiving and a little cold/snow mid December before the historic 2month run started in late December. There are similarities in sensible wx if not in ssta. The euro op may be right in something transient, but if folks want a more winter like regime..I think we have to be patient around these parts. The west and up through Canada will be dam cold, so we just have to wait for a few more adjustments. SO I could see a transient shot, but I'm referring to more sustainable colder wx. Maybe it comes in sooner, but it's going to be difficult to bring the cold from western Canada east, without a good -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I'm thinking past T-Day for anything notable. Nah..sooner rather than later..First it's normal to slightly below cold then around T-giving the bottom drops AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Nah..sooner rather than later..First it's normal to slightly below cold then around T-giving the bottom drops AMOUT So you're basing this on a 10 day op prog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Nah..sooner rather than later..First it's normal to slightly below cold then around T-giving the bottom drops AMOUT I think it will cool off near T-Day, but it doesn't appear to be a real change to winter quite yet..that's all I mean. AMOUT, it will take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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