Moving on to mid/late November

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip how is late November looking? If you've looked at models already

Still looks to break chillier post the 15th of the month - whether that comes in stages or all at once remains to be seen.

I believe as the NAO falls and gains weight in the overall massfields at some point the westerlies will descend southward along the E. Coast. Still seeing a generalized downward trend in the teleconnector means, although as is typical during autumn (spring for that matter), the coherency of a given signal is blurred by increased noise.

The PNA's elevation has also blurred, with only one channel at CDC now indicating a substantive rise occuring between the 15th and the 20th. As we saw last month, however, the signals seemed to disappear only to come back. We'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles definitely like the idea of a -NAO developing mid-month especially and continuing toward the end of the month. The PAC is still in limo...it builds a big -EPO ridge around D10 but then it goes away.

The NAO finally starts asserting itself in the temperatures Thanksgiving week as we see it cool down but its pretty mild before that. Given the ensembles penchant for rushing pattern changes, we'll have to see how this shakes out. Might have to wait until after Thanksgiving, but perhaps not...the PAC is uncertain. If that EPO ridge builds up and then becomes stubborn, then we could see it cool off much quicker.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles definitely like the idea of a -NAO developing mid-month especially and continuing toward the end of the month. The PAC is still in limo...it builds a big -EPO ridge around D10 but then it goes away.

The NAO finally starts asserting itself in the temperatures Thanksgiving week as we see it cool down but its pretty mild before that. Given the ensembles penchant for rushing pattern changes, we'll have to see how this shakes out. Might have to wait until after Thanksgiving, but perhaps not...the PAC is uncertain. If that EPO ridge builds up and then becomes stubborn, then we could see it cool off much quicker.

That west coast trough also tries to retrograde just a bit which will may ever so slightly try to raise heights in western Canada. This seems like a post T-Day legit pattern change imo as well, but maybe it will be sooner if that ridge really tries to develop into AK. The MJO also appears to want to go into more favorable phases too which may help out at the end of the month.

[ORH_wxman]

That west coast trough also tries to retrograde just a bit which will may ever so slightly try to raise heights in western Canada. This seems like a post T-Day legit pattern change imo as well, but maybe it will be sooner if that ridge really tries to develop into AK. The MJO also appears to want to go into more favorable phases too which may help out at the end of the month.

For November, phase 2 would help promote a ridge out west. Looks like we can get there by Nov 21-24 or so if the MJO wave holds strong enough and doesn't go into circle of death.

[Damage In Tolland]

You can see the changes on the day 10 Euro. I think thisa yr it's going to happen sooner rather than later. White Helloween..check..White b day..check.

3 more holidays to go and the checklist is complete

[weathafella]

You can see the changes on the day 10 Euro. I think thisa yr it's going to happen sooner rather than later. White Helloween..check..White b day..check.

3 more holidays to go and the checklist is complete

4.....though I did get my Medicare card in the mail today. Eligibility began 11/1....value of a bday on the first of the month is everything comes q month early. I feel old......

[moneypitmike]

You can see the changes on the day 10 Euro. I think thisa yr it's going to happen sooner rather than later. White Helloween..check..White b day..check.

3 more holidays to go and the checklist is complete

1) election day

2) veteran's day

3) Thanksgiving

17 more days by my count

50.7/43

[HoarfrostHubb]

4.....though I did get my Medicare card in the mail today. Eligibility began 11/1....value of a bday on the first of the month is everything comes q month early. I feel old......

You are only 15 years older than Ralph Machhio, and 3 years younger than Joni Mitchell

[Damage In Tolland]

Tweet tweet

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Love the way this pattern is looking for widespread wintery weather northern plains into east Thanksgiving to holidays

[CoastalWx]

Tweet tweet

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Love the way this pattern is looking for widespread wintery weather northern plains into east Thanksgiving to holidays

Certainly the Plains should get some good cold coming down from western Canada. If we can get the ridging more towards AK, it would help dump it more east. Even with a -NAO..you need a mechanism to help ooze the cold east instead of driving it into the Midwest, especially this time of year.

[CoastalWx]

Western Canada will be an icebox over the next two weeks. That AK ridge would help dislodge it and move it east, but the -NAO may be enough to help force some of that into the northeast towards T-Day I would think.

[snowNH]

Western Canada will be an icebox over the next two weeks. That AK ridge would help dislodge it and move it east, but the -NAO may be enough to help force some of that into the northeast towards T-Day I would think.

With holidays and vacations coming up fast I don't think this period will crawl by like all of October did

[CoastalWx]

With holidays and vacations coming up fast I don't think this period will crawl by like all of October did

Sometimes these patterns last 3 weeks or so before relaxing and reloading, so I'd rather see it later in December in my area, but a cooldown for T-Day is nice as it is a reminder of the season. If we are lucky..maybe something more than a cooldown.

[ski MRG]

Western Canada will be an icebox over the next two weeks. That AK ridge would help dislodge it and move it east, but the -NAO may be enough to help force some of that into the northeast towards T-Day I would think.

The Willow Connection will pay dividends here in 10-14 days. Early morning pre-flight prep shot this AM. More snow and cold on the way. Mark my words.lol

[ORH_wxman]

Should be mostly a torch the next 2 weeks...possible we can cool down into a better wintry pattern by T-day...the Euro ensembles shows some changes in the Nov 21-23 time frame perhaps...but it might be rushed.

[Snowstorms]

Western Canada will be an icebox over the next two weeks. That AK ridge would help dislodge it and move it east, but the -NAO may be enough to help force some of that into the northeast towards T-Day I would think.

Should start cooling down nicely across Western Canada later this week. The snowcover could explode across Canada next week and it depends how many systems cross the Prairies, how far south and the temperature gradient.

There's good agreement that most of Western Canada will feature temperatures as much as 10 degrees below normal with consistent clippers given the Active Storm track across the Pacific and the Huge HP sitting across Alaska.

Certainly enough the Aleutian Ridge starts getting its act together later next week which should bring the PNA closer to neutral and allow the EPO go negative. Its a slow change but I think the cool down will be significant across the East come Nov 20th and beyond. The first widespread snow event may occur with a over running clipper between Nov 18th-22nd IMO followed by the first possible LES outbreak.

Looks to be a East Based -NAO.

Still sticking with your thoughts on a cold end? Do you think there will be a storm across the East in the last 5-10 days of the month that may deliever a good swath of snow?

If anything this November pattern resembles a typical Nina event. Looks similar to 07 and 08.

[dryslot]

Should be mostly a torch the next 2 weeks...possible we can cool down into a better wintry pattern by T-day...the Euro ensembles shows some changes in the Nov 21-23 time frame perhaps...but it might be rushed.

I will be content if it gets here the 1st of December

[ski MRG]

Should be mostly a torch the next 2 weeks...possible we can cool down into a better wintry pattern by T-day...the Euro ensembles shows some changes in the Nov 21-23 time frame perhaps...but it might be rushed.

Bank it.

[CoastalWx]

Should start cooling down nicely across Western Canada later this week. The snowcover could explode across Canada next week and it depends how many systems cross the Prairies, how far south and the temperature gradient.

There's good agreement that most of Western Canada will feature temperatures as much as 10 degrees below normal with consistent clippers given the Active Storm track across the Pacific and the Huge HP sitting across Alaska.

Certainly enough the Aleutian Ridge starts getting its act together later next week which should bring the PNA closer to neutral and allow the EPO go negative. Its a slow change but I think the cool down will be significant across the East come Nov 20th and beyond. The first widespread snow event may occur with a over running clipper between Nov 18th-22nd IMO followed by the first possible LES outbreak.

Looks to be a East Based -NAO.

Still sticking with your thoughts on a cold end? Do you think there will be a storm across the East in the last 5-10 days of the month that may deliever a good swath of snow?

If anything this November pattern resembles a typical Nina event. Looks similar to 07 and 08.

I think I mentioned that it could be a colder end, but I didn't have high confidence (and still don't). However, it looks to turn colder..especially int he GL and on west. Like Will said..models love to rush these changes, so it's possible this doesn't happen until after T-day in these parts. I will say that seeing some pieces of the puzzle come together is encouraging so I would think that it seems like a good possibility that it will turn colder. How much so... is for debate in this area, the weeklies will be interesting to see on Thursday, I think someone in the Plains and maybe GL sees some more widespread snow towards T-Day, but it's really too early to say for this area. I think all you can do is to just make sure things are going to plan, as far as any change to colder wx. If we are unsure of the magnitude of this change, than it's really premature to talk about snow. Probably a different story out in the nctrl US, but I'm talking about this area.

[Snowstorms]

I think I mentioned that it could be a colder end, but I didn't have high confidence (and still don't). However, it looks to turn colder..especially int he GL and on west. Like Will said..models love to rush these changes, so it's possible this doesn't happen until after T-day in these parts. I will say that seeing some pieces of the puzzle come together is encouraging so I would think that it seems like a good possibility that it will turn colder. How much so... is for debate in this area, the weeklies will be interesting to see on Thursday, I think someone in the Plains and maybe GL sees some more widespread snow towards T-Day, but it's really too early to say for this area. I think all you can do is to just make sure things are going to plan, as far as any change to colder wx. If we are unsure of the magnitude of this change, than it's really premature to talk about snow. Probably a different story out in the nctrl US, but I'm talking about this area.

No often times the pattern resembles what happens in your area to mine. I'm not expecting a quick change in the pattern. I think I mentioned that the models are too progressive in the overall pattern change and that it will take some time for the pattern to change across the East. Again I dont like using the GFS for any long range forecasting since its too progressive and in my opinion it changes rapidly every run.

However with the MJO propagating thru phases 7/8/1 around Nov 14th-18th one would expect some cooler anomalies starting to creep in. Given the slight lag effect I personally think Nov 20th and beyond looks interesting.

I'm not very optimistic right now but we shall see. Atleast the cold air should build across the West.

[CoastalWx]

No often times the pattern resembles what happens in your area to mine. I'm not expecting a quick change in the pattern. I think I mentioned that the models are too progressive in the overall pattern change and that it will take some time for the pattern to change across the East. Again I dont like using the GFS for any long range forecasting since its too progressive and in my opinion it changes rapidly every run.

However with the MJO propagating thru phases 7/8/1 around Nov 14th-18th one would expect some cooler anomalies starting to creep in. Given the slight lag effect I personally think Nov 20th and beyond looks interesting.

I'm not very optimistic right now but we shall see. Atleast the cold air should build across the West.

I think we'll see some sort of a change..just a question of when. I'm thinking after the 20th and probably more like the 25th or so..but we'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

No often times the pattern resembles what happens in your area to mine. I'm not expecting a quick change in the pattern. I think I mentioned that the models are too progressive in the overall pattern change and that it will take some time for the pattern to change across the East. Again I dont like using the GFS for any long range forecasting since its too progressive and in my opinion it changes rapidly every run.

However with the MJO propagating thru phases 7/8/1 around Nov 14th-18th one would expect some cooler anomalies starting to creep in. Given the slight lag effect I personally think Nov 20th and beyond looks interesting.

I'm not very optimistic right now but we shall see. Atleast the cold air should build across the West.

You really want phases 2-5 in November for cold...as the wavelengths are still a bit short. By December/January we really want phases 7,8,1, and 2.

It looks like we could get into phase 2 by the 22-24th or so.

[OKpowdah]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that vortex in western Canada hold on strong into the first week of December, with mainly transient periods of cold into the northeast ... depending on blocking over Alaska and Greenland. Goes well with my winter forecast so far. Decent arctic outbreak into the Plains with cyclogenesis on the leading edge by the second week of December, which will start to shake up the pattern.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that vortex in western Canada hold on strong into the first week of December, with mainly transient periods of cold into the northeast ... depending on blocking over Alaska and Greenland. Goes well with my winter forecast so far. Decent arctic outbreak into the Plains with cyclogenesis on the leading edge by the second week of December, which will start to shake up the pattern.

I actually could see it being transient too..or at least have some messy type deals until it shakes up. Obviously it depends on blocking like you said, but at least step 1 will be done with getting Canada cold..especially western Canada. Step 2 is to have it leak south and east which will probably happen to an extent down the road.

[ORH_wxman]

I actually could see it being transient too..or at least have some messy type deals until it shakes up. Obviously it depends on blocking like you said, but at least step 1 will be done with getting Canada cold..especially western Canada. Step 2 is to have it leak south and east which will probably happen to an extent down the road.

Well probably see a gradient pattern..esp if we get a little NAO ridging as it will start to push the gradient south a bit contesting the SE ridge that will be present from the -PNA/RNA pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Well probably see a gradient pattern..esp if we get a little NAO ridging as it will start to push the gradient south a bit contesting the SE ridge that will be present from the -PNA/RNA pattern.

Yeah I agree..esp if we see the trough centered out west like that. Maybe Canadian Prairies high?

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I agree..esp if we see the trough centered out west like that. Maybe Canadian Prairies high?

Lol, the Scooter fetish.

It def could be though. We'll need the EPO to be negative though for it to be the classic arctic oozing high...otherwise it might be somewhat modified by Pacific air....still cold, but not frigid and probably no good for the CP for snow threats in late Nov which are obviously hard enough to get in arctic cold setups even.

[CoastalWx]

Lol, the Scooter fetish.

It def could be though. We'll need the EPO to be negative though for it to be the classic arctic oozing high...otherwise it might be somewhat modified by Pacific air....still cold, but not frigid and probably no good for the CP for snow threats in late Nov which are obviously hard enough to get in arctic cold setups even.

Yeah things have to be textbook to get snow early, but I'll welcome a change regardless.

[Snowstorms]

Well probably see a gradient pattern..esp if we get a little NAO ridging as it will start to push the gradient south a bit contesting the SE ridge that will be present from the -PNA/RNA pattern.

The problem is the SE Ridge. It remains strong and heathly over the next two weeks pumping in warm gulf air. A Weak Bermuda High slightly further East wouldnt be bad but we need the Strongly negative PNA to weaken considering we have a huge trough situated across the East, suppressing the Aleutian Ridge and preventing a -EPO from developing.

I certainly think given the pattern possible over the next 2-3 weeks maybe a sign of Winter. If this cool-warm-cool pattern is persistent through the Winter months, we'll hardly have any cold outbreaks, may end up similar to 2001-02 if the Pacific doesnt get a bit more favorable, haha.

I mean look at dat huge trough located across the Pacific NW and the resulting Ridge across the East. Not a good pattern for Winter. Seems like a EB -NAO and the PV seems displaced across Northern Canada.

[ORH_wxman]

The problem is the SE Ridge. It remains strong and heathly over the next two weeks pumping in warm gulf air. A Weak Bermuda High slightly further East wouldnt be bad but we need the Strongly negative PNA to weaken considering we have a huge trough situated across the East, suppressing the Aleutian Ridge and preventing a -EPO from developing.

I certainly think given the pattern possible over the next 2-3 weeks maybe a sign of Winter. If this cool-warm-cool pattern is persistent through the Winter months, we'll hardly have any cold outbreaks, may end up similar to 2001-02 if the Pacific doesnt get a bit more favorable, haha.

I mean look at dat huge trough located across the Pacific NW and the resulting Ridge across the East. Not a good pattern for Winter. Seems like a EB -NAO and the PV seems displaced across Northern Canada.

Well we know the next 2 weeks are a torch pattern...we've been hitting that for a while now. The changes look to occur after the two week time frame. The PNA is not so extremely negative after that period which will help things progress even if its still negative overall.