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Mid Month Inferno, How Hot Will It Get?


Mr Torchey

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Latest 90+ dates...

ID     LATEST 90+   TEMP
------------------------   
ALB    1941-10- 5    91
BDL    1963-10- 7    91
BDR    1970- 9-23    91
BGR    2007- 9-26    91
BOS    1954-10-12    90
BTV    1942- 9-18    90
CAR    1945- 9- 7    91
CON    1963-10- 7    90
GFL    1952- 9-13    90
HUL    2002- 9-10    92
MSS    2007- 9-25    90
ORH    1983- 9-11    91
PVD    1970- 9-23    92
PWM    2007- 9-26    90
SLK    2002- 9- 9    91

Farmington, Maine: 90 on 10/13/1930. This is almost 3 weeks later than the 2nd latest, which is 90+ on 9/23 in both 1895 and 1965.

That 19th century mark was part of a 3-day heatwave that makes me question the veracity of the numbers:

9/21/1895....94....54

9/22/1895...100...65

9/23/1895.....99...78

9/24/1895.....78...52

That stretch holds the only Sept days hotter than 97 and the only Sept minimum milder than 70. In fact, that 78 is the highest minimum on record at Farmington (and the AM low may have been even milder, or why I showed the 24th), and the mean of 88.5 is also the highest recorded - very bizarre for it to be in fall, especially for an inland location. Other than 1895, Sept's highest daily mean is 80.0. Other than the 23rd, the highest mean for any day is 87.5 (100/75) on 8/12/1896, and nothing else is higher than 85.0, reached on 4 days, most recently (and the only time since 1911) on 8/3/1975 - high was actually on 8/2, Hot Saturday, but 7 AM obs time shows it on the 3rd.

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Farmington, Maine: 90 on 10/13/1930. This is almost 3 weeks later than the 2nd latest, which is 90+ on 9/23 in both 1895 and 1965.

That 19th century mark was part of a 3-day heatwave that makes me question the veracity of the numbers:

9/21/1895....94....54

9/22/1895...100...65

9/23/1895.....99...78

9/24/1895.....78...52

That stretch holds the only Sept days hotter than 97 and the only Sept minimum milder than 70. In fact, that 78 is the highest minimum on record at Farmington (and the AM low may have been even milder, or why I showed the 24th), and the mean of 88.5 is also the highest recorded - very bizarre for it to be in fall, especially for an inland location. Other than 1895, Sept's highest daily mean is 80.0. Other than the 23rd, the highest mean for any day is 87.5 (100/75) on 8/12/1896, and nothing else is higher than 85.0, reached on 4 days, most recently (and the only time since 1911) on 8/3/1975 - high was actually on 8/2, Hot Saturday, but 7 AM obs time shows it on the 3rd.

Top 10 mean temps for FARM1.. that 1895 is ridiculous for July let alone that late in September.

DATE        MEAN  HI  LO
------------------------
1895-09-23  88.5  99  78
1896-08-12  87.5 100  75
1975-08-03  85.0 101  69
1911-07-11  85.0 102  68
1911-07-04  85.0 102  68
1896-08-11  85.0 100  70
1977-07-21  84.5  95  74
1911-07-10  84.5 104  65
1901-07-16  84.5  98  71
1949-08-23  84.0  91  77

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Top 10 mean temps for FARM1.. that 1895 is ridiculous for July let alone that late in September.

DATE        MEAN  HI  LO
------------------------
1895-09-23  88.5  99  78
1896-08-12  87.5 100  75
1975-08-03  85.0 101  69
1911-07-11  85.0 102  68
1911-07-04  85.0 102  68
1896-08-11  85.0 100  70
1977-07-21  84.5  95  74
1911-07-10  84.5 104  65
1901-07-16  84.5  98  71
1949-08-23  84.0  91  77

Where do you get all of this temperature data? I love looking back through this historical stuff. You have a lot of information that I've never found before from every ASOS and co-op in New England.

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Late blooms going strong, Dianthus and Echinacea have managed a 4th bloom after deadheading, and the Cosmos is going strong in a once robust wildflower bed, I have seen some rhodies and azaleas flowering over the last week, foilage is basically non existant outside of some very dull colors on dogwoods and maples 90%green still. Looking at the pattern for the coastal plain, it maybe well into November before the growing season ends, and lawns are spring green :thumbsup:

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Nah, that's too warm. 87-88.

I was looking back on 10/15/95 on the NARR maps and saw we peaked around 15C in the area. Some of the max/mins that day...

CON 87/40

MHT 89/48 (although I think they ran a little high those days)

BDL 85/47

BOS 83/59

This time around...the sun angle is a hair higher, 850s a tick warmer, and the NW flow may be a bit more pronounced. I could see MOS busting a little low on this near record heat. It has already been bouncing around decently. 00z MAV had 88F for BDL Sunday while the 6z came down to 84F. However 0z had 85F for ASH, but now 6z has 87F. I think think the usual torch spots may flirt with 90F, but the caveat may be the wet soils prohibiting the extra 1-2C we may need to make 32C.

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I was looking back on 10/15/95 on the NARR maps and saw we peaked around 15C in the area. Some of the max/mins that day...

CON 87/40

MHT 89/48 (although I think they ran a little high those days)

BDL 85/47

BOS 83/59

This time around...the sun angle is a hair higher, 850s a tick warmer, and the NW flow may be a bit more pronounced. I could see MOS busting a little low on this near record heat. It has already been bouncing around decently. 00z MAV had 88F for BDL Sunday while the 6z came down to 84F. However 0z had 85F for ASH, but now 6z has 87F. I think think the usual torch spots may flirt with 90F, but the caveat may be the wet soils prohibiting the extra 1-2C we may need to make 32C.

Yeah I suppose I could see 89. You know what...I'll have to look at soundings. Maybe it could hit 90 in spots.

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Yeah I suppose I could see 89. You know what...I'll have to look at soundings. Maybe it could hit 90 in spots.

Well I agree with you that I think 88F or something will be tops, but I'm just saying that a couple of spot 90F readings (like ASH) wouldn't surprise me. Looks like the 304-305K thetas are running around 800mb or higher on the 12z NAM. The 6z GFS was a bit lower near 825mb. Mixing should be pretty decent...we'll see.
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Well I agree with you that I think 88F or something will be tops, but I'm just saying that a couple of spot 90F readings (like ASH) wouldn't surprise me. Looks like the 304-305K thetas are running around 800mb or higher on the 12z NAM. The 6z GFS was a bit lower near 825mb. Mixing should be pretty decent...we'll see.

It just seems like this time of year, it really takes a lot to heat up. But, it seems like things are coming together for quite a warm day. Downslope over the top warmth, +18C or so 850 temps etc.

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It just seems like this time of year, it really takes a lot to heat up. But, it seems like things are coming together for quite a warm day. Downslope over the top warmth, +18C or so 850 temps etc.

btw...this was from the other day, but you can plug it into your BUFKIT tool. The regular runs should be coming soon.

http://www.sanfordlabs.com/americanwx/bufkit/2011100612.arw_dorc.buf

711154 42.29N 71.06W DORC 11 10 DORCHESTER MA 1 COASTALWX

We need to update the elevations though.

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btw...this was from the other day, but you can plug it into your BUFKIT tool. The regular runs should be coming soon.

http://www.sanfordla...12.arw_dorc.buf

711154 42.29N 71.06W DORC 11 10 DORCHESTER MA 1 COASTALWX

We need to update the elevations though.

Oh cool, nice. I actually like meteograms like the one you displayed. For a lot of the international cities I forecast for, we use them quite a bit.

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its almost becoming comical Zuck, how are things going in NH, I hope you have settled in nicely :thumbsup:

It is pretty ridiculous, we're starting off the month +5F in New England with an extremely mild week in the offing and the 12z ECM showing another death ridge approaching the area later next week. I don't think I've ever seen 20C 850s that far north this late in the season, and the entire Northern Hemisphere seems to be warm with the globe's surface remaining overall very mild even as satellites show the lower tropsophere rapidly cooling. Both the GFS and ECM ENS show most of the NH with above average 500mb heights, so we don't have a ton of cold air to tap though the Niña should change that by winter.

I am doing really well in NH; dealing with special needs students can be a challenge, especially for someone trained in foreign languages and not education, but I really enjoy their company. I think it's a very reasonable package for a starting teacher with a 20k salary for a short school year plus full room and board (nice apartment, nice food), and it's such a small school that the staff always seems to be on the same page. Loving being in the classroom as well.

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