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Mid Month Inferno, How Hot Will It Get?


Mr Torchey

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Looks like we'll see low, maybe mid 70s up here. We'll see.

Not endless summer here. We've had a couple frosts here and should have a couple more before the real warmth surges in. So, call it Indian Summer.

It actually will be nice--still a lot to do before the Old Man returns and a warmish and more importantly, dry stretch, will be very welcomed for those of us hauling in firewood and genreally trying to button up before winter. Winter is nothing to take lightly here. :pimp:

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Some places will hit 85-87..ugly

I think that's a bit too high. The sun is weak (much weaker than even a month ago) which means less surface heating and mixing depth. To get to the 30-31C at the surface, you're talking about adding ~15C to the 850mb temperature. We're at the time of year when you have to start reigning in your 850 add-on. History is also not on your side. Here are the number of high temperatures at or above 85 historically through the 18th. Notice the huge drop off in numbers in the first week of October. Since 1990, BDL has had a high of 85+ three times on or after the 9th which is about when the real warmth is forecast to move in to the region.

TMAX>=85 ON OR AFTER DATE
DATE    BDL  BOS  PVD  ORH
OCT  1   27   24   12    2
OCT  2   25   22   11    2
OCT  3   22   18    8    2
OCT  4   21   18    8    2
OCT  5   19   15    7    2
OCT  6   17   15    6    2
OCT  7   12   12    5    2
OCT  8   11    8    4    1
OCT  9   10    8    4    1
OCT 10   10    8    4    1
OCT 11    9    6    3    1
OCT 12    7    6    3    1
OCT 13    5    5    2    1
OCT 14    3    4    1    1
OCT 15    3    4    1    1
OCT 16    2    4    1    0
OCT 17    2    3    1    0
OCT 18    2    1    1    0

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Latest 90+ dates...

ID     LATEST 90+   TEMP
------------------------   
ALB    1941-10- 5    91
BDL    1963-10- 7    91
BDR    1970- 9-23    91
BGR    2007- 9-26    91
BOS    1954-10-12    90
BTV    1942- 9-18    90
CAR    1945- 9- 7    91
CON    1963-10- 7    90
GFL    1952- 9-13    90
HUL    2002- 9-10    92
MSS    2007- 9-25    90
ORH    1983- 9-11    91
PVD    1970- 9-23    92
PWM    2007- 9-26    90
SLK    2002- 9- 9    91

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