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October Banter/ Disco II


Baroclinic Zone

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Not doubting, Steve, becasue I don't know. So, questioning from an "educate me" standpoint.

Can it really blow 100 miles inland?

I was wondering that too. I noticed within a week or two of Irene that some trees seem to be "burned" and the leaves just fell off shortly thereafter. I was wondering that considering I'm on a plateau of sorts...higher than the hills south of here. That would have made an easy target from the sound with Irene's winds.

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I was wondering that too. I noticed within a week or two of Irene that some trees seem to be "burned" and the leaves just fell off shortly thereafter. I was wondering that considering I'm on a plateau of sorts...higher than the hills south of here. That would have made an easy target from the sound with Irene's winds.

There are reports of salt deposits 900 miles inland from hurricanes.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/04/030425071845.htm

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Okay ...so now we have the notably drier air advecting all the way down to Rt 2 ... Very fast was this... At noon the DP was still 45 at BTV, now just 32 there. FIT down to 38 and much of VT/NH in the low to mid 30s.

Not sure if we'll decouple well tonight with gradient in place, but this is all setting stage for a nippy night tomorrow night.

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Okay ...so now we have the notably drier air advecting all the way down to Rt 2 ... Very fast was this... At noon the DP was still 45 at BTV, now just 32 there. FIT down to 38 and much of VT/NH in the low to mid 30s.

Not sure if we'll decouple well tonight with gradient in place, but this is all setting stage for a nippy night tomorrow night.

Tip, thoughts about tropical moisture next week? Looks like 18z NAM wants to develop a tropical system in the bahamas by hour 6. The trough seems to lag behind though.

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Okay ...so now we have the notably drier air advecting all the way down to Rt 2 ... Very fast was this... At noon the DP was still 45 at BTV, now just 32 there. FIT down to 38 and much of VT/NH in the low to mid 30s.

Not sure if we'll decouple well tonight with gradient in place, but this is all setting stage for a nippy night tomorrow night.

No idea what I have for a dp, but the temp drop so far has been meh. 57* on the HD special. I'll be surprised if I get below 39 or 40, but since it's CAA rather than radiating, maybe I'll do okay.

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Tip, thoughts about tropical moisture next week? Looks like 18z NAM wants to develop a tropical system in the bahamas by hour 60

The whole region from the N Gulf to the Bahamas will be increasingly fertile for TC development over the next 3 days. I mentioned this earlier .... the high pressure setting up shop over the eastern seabaord is underpinned by a very deep layer shearless easterly aloft, while having a dying frontal system draped through that area.. .That provides for one of these "bookend" deals, and is actually climatologically a favored TC source during October. Definitely something to keep and eye on for areas around the Gulf and up along FL/SE U.S. Coast.

I wouldn't even begin to speculate (or elevate) hopes for hearing from that around here, so don't even go there. Too soon to tell, let alone "know".

By the way... season's first pink radar returns showing up in the cold thickness convection over Maine... Probably some grappble pellets in some of those showers up there. I gotta figure it must be snowing in the NW periphery of the NF coastal bomb.

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No idea what I have for a dp, but the temp drop so far has been meh. 57* on the HD special. I'll be surprised if I get below 39 or 40, but since it's CAA rather than radiating, maybe I'll do okay.

Yeah, elevations are cooked on nights like tonight... You get 31F and calm at 190ft elevation Ayer, and 40F at 1000' ORH with 20kt wind puffs.

DPs should be 30-35 all the way down to CT/RI boarders with Mass by sundown. When the convective clouds dry up, how cold it gets will be strictly guided by decoupling. I have seen that happen in CAA before in really interesting ways. There was an overnight at FIT, 2 winters ago where the temp dropped to 9 and the wind went 0000, then it popped to 22F with 7kts, then down to 9 ...rince/repeat all night. Obviously nothing so extreme here, but just because most models have 10-15kts persisting overnight doesn't mean an interior valley or two won't see a plummet.

Again, tomorrow night looks like a fantastic radiator -

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Historic flooding on the way middle/end of next week after 85-90 Sunday/Monday

The pump is certainly primed. We'll have to see how things break. Right now it would take a bit or re-arranging the way things are modeled... There is some 'hint' of a newly cutting off pattern with perhaps some tropical entrainment in a few of the runs I saw, but nothing too convincing. Soil moisture is up though across the board -

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