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October Banter/ Disco II


Baroclinic Zone

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Not sure what the deeper layered sounding looks like and what's available to mix down in this CAA, but the DPs are above 40 all the way to the Canadian boarder with NYS.... To really get a good freeze I'd like see them in the mid 30s.

Problem with all this late warmth and elevated soil moisture is that vegetation is retarded in annual die -off ... I think I had this conversation with Scott during the September cool snap and am wondering the same thing here, if it may bust the models too dry by some small margin yet enough to keep the lows elevated. The FRH grid suggests 15kt sustained BL flow during the overnight - if there is residual cloud that combination of those alone will definitely limit decoupling to some degree anyway.

It will be interesting albeit tedious to see how the temps fall out of this...at least for tonight. Definitely think that tomorrow night has a good shot at being nippy overnight with high cresting over head and DPs of 38 at sunset. Decoupling should occur with more ease and slip the DP/Temp down to 30 or so with a few spots into the 20s.

Then, big big diurnal rise on Friday. Could see that day getting 40 to even as much as 50 back by 3pm.

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Not sure what the deeper layered sounding looks like and what's available to mix down in this CAA, but the DPs are above 40 all the way to the Canadian boarder with NYS.... To really get a good freeze I'd like see them in the mid 30s.

Problem with all this late warmth and elevated soil moisture is that vegetation is retarded in annual die -off ... I think I had this conversation with Scott during the September cool snap and am wondering the same thing here, if it may bust the models too dry by some small margin yet enough to keep the lows elevated. The FRH grid suggests 15kt sustained BL flow during the overnight - if there is residual cloud that combination of those alone will definitely limit decoupling to some degree anyway.

It will be interesting albeit tedious to see how the temps fall out of this...at least for tonight. Definitely think that tomorrow night has a good shot at being nippy overnight with high cresting over head and DPs of 38 at sunset. Decoupling should occur with more ease and slip the DP/Temp down to 30 or so with a few spots into the 20s.

Then, big big diurnal rise on Friday. Could see that day getting 40 to even as much as 50 back by 3pm.

It looked like dews even up by BTV aren't going to drop until tonight. Even at BOS, seems like a steady and slow fall of td's through tomorrow.

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It looked like dews even up by BTV aren't going to drop until tonight. Even at BOS, seems like a steady and slow fall of td's through tomorrow.

Agreed...there appears to be a follow up vort max zippng down the backside of this thing as it tries to lift out en masse over the next 24 hours - that imparts a brief shot of somewhat drier air ...particularly for eastern sections, but it should knock the 50F DP out of ALB, too - with dying off wind tomorrow night...

Then that's it!! Wow the 12z Euro is even more aggressive with warming over the weekend. Using the 850s the 0C isotherm backs out of here faster on this run.. Long gone on Friday and up over 12C by late afternoon!! That's pretty quick. 570DM thickness plume over the area from late Saturday through Sunday on WNW katobatic wind and a tall boundary layer through almost 17C - even after the equinox we can tap 85F with that profile.

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thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I saw the same but with a chipmunk instead a few weeks ago..

gusty out there right now

yeah, that's probably more common then we might at first think... My buddy and I were in the midst of tennis when we both stopped, looked around, and just then this "sesna" came wabbling through the woods near the edge of the courts, and scooped up a whole squirel in its talons. It flapped away with the squeeking and wrything squarel powelessly drapping from its grip. It was cool to see nature in action like that.

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yeah, that's probably more common then we might at first think... My buddy and I were in the midst of tennis when we both stopped, looked around, and just then this "sesna" came wabbling through the woods near the edge of the courts, and scooped up a whole squirel in its talons. It flapped away with the squeeking and wrything squarel powelessly drapping from its grip. It was cool to see nature in action like that.

I prefer it when it's a snake--I hate snakes.

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yeah, that's probably more common then we might at first think... My buddy and I were in the midst of tennis when we both stopped, looked around, and just then this "sesna" came wabbling through the woods near the edge of the courts, and scooped up a whole squirel in its talons. It flapped away with the squeeking and wrything squarel powelessly drapping from its grip. It was cool to see nature in action like that.

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It seems like just as my chipmunk population was maxing out, I started to see hawks around much more, and now there appear fewer chipmunks around.

Could just be coincidence or memory failure, but I think the inflated population attracted the birds to thin it out. Good thing because I was considering a blizz-bucket before.

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I've been down in North Woodstock, CT since Saturday and will be here until Sunday.... today is the first day with no rain! Its currently sunny and 59F here at 800ft in the woods, though I cannot believe how bad the foliage is down here. It wasn't a fantastic year up north but it was still fall foliage with reds, oranges, and yellows. Here I've just got a lot of brown leaves on the lawn. I can see absolutely no real color except for some muted yellows on certain areas of trees. Quite the difference from up north and I understand that up in Stowe we are going to be a lot further along, but this doesn't even look like its close to fall foliage. Its like 90% muted green/brown and this area usually seems to have decent color being up in the hills (southern extension of the Worcester Hills into NE CT).

In all honestly it was like a switch was flipped around Lebanon/White River Junction on I-91... there was solid (at times great) color north of there, and south of there it became patchy until by Springfield, VT it just about disappeared into brown/rusted yellow and green stuff. Even those hills near Holyoke, MA looked like dead green/brown. I'm sure the color near West Chesterfield is near record saturation levels, though ;)

Looks like a nice cold day up north... 36F at the top of the ski resort in Stowe with NW winds gusting to 48mph in the past hour. Brrr. Two days of mid 20s expected in Stowe village the next couple nights. Then low 70s next weekend (10-15F above normal). Ahh New England weather with 50F temp swings between a couple of days.

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I've been down in North Woodstock, CT since Saturday and will be here until Sunday.... today is the first day with no rain! Its currently sunny and 59F here at 800ft in the woods, though I cannot believe how bad the foliage is down here. It wasn't a fantastic year up north but it was still fall foliage with reds, oranges, and yellows. Here I've just got a lot of brown leaves on the lawn. I can see absolutely no real color except for some muted yellows on certain areas of trees. Quite the difference from up north and I understand that up in Stowe we are going to be a lot further along, but this doesn't even look like its close to fall foliage. Its like 90% muted green/brown and this area usually seems to have decent color being up in the hills (southern extension of the Worcester Hills into NE CT).

In all honestly it was like a switch was flipped around Lebanon/White River Junction on I-91... there was solid (at times great) color north of there, and south of there it became patchy until by Springfield, VT it just about disappeared into brown/rusted yellow and green stuff. Even those hills near Holyoke, MA looked like dead green/brown. I'm sure the color near West Chesterfield is near record saturation levels, though ;)

Looks like a nice cold day up north... 36F at the top of the ski resort in Stowe with NW winds gusting to 48mph in the past hour. Brrr. Two days of mid 20s expected in Stowe village the next couple nights. Then low 70s next weekend (10-15F above normal). Ahh New England weather with 50F temp swings between a couple of days.

Nope--the leaves in GC are totally muted. Treees are dropping them like there's no tomorrow, but they're going from green--quick-yellow--quick brown and dropping from the trees. Usually you get a nice colored lawn from the leaves dropping. This year, most are coming down brown. Pathetic foliage season.

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It seems like just as my chipmunk population was maxing out, I started to see hawks around much more, and now there appear fewer chipmunks around.

Could just be coincidence or memory failure, but I think the inflated population attracted the birds to thin it out. Good thing because I was considering a blizz-bucket before.

Had a fairly substantial rabbit and turkey population at one of our local golf course, Then a bobcat was spotted on numerous occassion at the course and we did not see very many rabbits or turkeys anymore..

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Nope--the leaves in GC are totally muted. Treees are dropping them like there's no tomorrow, but they're going from green--quick-yellow--quick brown and dropping from the trees. Usually you get a nice colored lawn from the leaves dropping. This year, most are coming down brown. Pathetic foliage season.

Yeah that's what I'm doing down here... raking and some fall/winter prep at my parent's summer camp here in Woodstock. I'll turn the water off this weekend and drain the pipes... but usually this time of year its beautiful with yellow, red, and orange leaves all over the lawn. This year I'm raking wet, brown, dead leaves from the lawn. They are dropping quickly in the NW breezes today here on the hilltop.

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I've been down in North Woodstock, CT since Saturday and will be here until Sunday.... today is the first day with no rain! Its currently sunny and 59F here at 800ft in the woods, though I cannot believe how bad the foliage is down here. It wasn't a fantastic year up north but it was still fall foliage with reds, oranges, and yellows. Here I've just got a lot of brown leaves on the lawn. I can see absolutely no real color except for some muted yellows on certain areas of trees. Quite the difference from up north and I understand that up in Stowe we are going to be a lot further along, but this doesn't even look like its close to fall foliage. Its like 90% muted green/brown and this area usually seems to have decent color being up in the hills (southern extension of the Worcester Hills into NE CT).

In all honestly it was like a switch was flipped around Lebanon/White River Junction on I-91... there was solid (at times great) color north of there, and south of there it became patchy until by Springfield, VT it just about disappeared into brown/rusted yellow and green stuff. Even those hills near Holyoke, MA looked like dead green/brown. I'm sure the color near West Chesterfield is near record saturation levels, though ;)

Looks like a nice cold day up north... 36F at the top of the ski resort in Stowe with NW winds gusting to 48mph in the past hour. Brrr. Two days of mid 20s expected in Stowe village the next couple nights. Then low 70s next weekend (10-15F above normal). Ahh New England weather with 50F temp swings between a couple of days.

No one believes me but Irene blew salt in far inland, the first day after Irene with full sun it was obvious to me.

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In all honestly it was like a switch was flipped around Lebanon/White River Junction on I-91... there was solid (at times great) color north of there, and south of there it became patchy until by Springfield, VT it just about disappeared into brown/rusted yellow and green stuff. Even those hills near Holyoke, MA looked like dead green/brown. I'm sure the color near West Chesterfield is near record saturation levels, though ;)

LOL.

Anyway--haven't been south of Leb/WRJ since mid-September but folks I've talked with have said basically the same thing you have here. I did get a report of some decent color along I-89 east of Leb in that high area near New London but otherwise, not a spectacular year. It's not bad out our way in the hills but certainly not as brilliant as it can be. Still nice to look at though.

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The anti winter. Just think, at some point in the last 1,000,000 years of eastern North America's existence there was probably a winter where it never snowed, not even once.

LOL, you are going to kill some on here.

Getting back to the potential low pressure down across the se. Once again, someone on the East Coast may have hydro issues.

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Yeah that's what I'm doing down here... raking and some fall/winter prep at my parent's summer camp here in Woodstock. I'll turn the water off this weekend and drain the pipes... but usually this time of year its beautiful with yellow, red, and orange leaves all over the lawn. This year I'm raking wet, brown, dead leaves from the lawn. They are dropping quickly in the NW breezes today here on the hilltop.

Violent pelting by those wind-driven helicopter maple seeds.

59

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Anone who is looking for a good laugh should go here:

http://www.americanw...e-staff-member/

Basically the thread turned into a subject about my avatars, and it's been all down hill from there.

Why, oh why did I venture into the OT forum?

:facepalm:

Wow what a thread. I really can't believe how bent out of shape people get about the happenings on an internet message board. My favorites are the hypocrites who bitc...I mean, complain about getting called names...yet they are the same ones who are usually the first to instigate trouble in any thread where they see a post by someone they've disagreed with even once in AP (which in my opinion, is really the biggest problem on this board). These people have to create drama on the internet because they likely have no lives beyond it.

In any case...that's all OT...who's looking forward a chance of frost followed by an autumnal torch?

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