CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 80F at 7:00PM in BOS It's much cooler away from the UHI, but LOL at that temp. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 It looks seasonable chilly in the long range...the ensembles only go out to the 25th but that time period looks seasonal. I wouldn't call it a cold pattern by any stretch of the imagination, but the longwave torch pattern is gone. We need to rotate the arctic a bit...all the cold is stuck on the Europe side right now. I'd like to see it start building in Siberia more. I don't like how the 12z ECM keeps the PV sitting over Northern Greenland; that's going to make it mild over most of the Arctic and ruin our chances to develop more sea ice/snow cover. We're starting to look pretty screwed on snow cover because Siberia's cold air source is cut off by that PV, and the potent +NAO doesn't seem to be improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Here was ORH.... September 2007: +4.2F October 2007: +6.9F September 2011: +3.5F October 2011, to date: +2.6F Boston should be +6 or better after today, they were over +5 through yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Boston should be +6 or better after today, they were over +5 through yesterday Boston was only +5.1 for October 2007 so they could break that this year if we see another death ridge as the ECM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I don't like how the 12z ECM keeps the PV sitting over Northern Greenland; that's going to make it mild over most of the Arctic and ruin our chances to develop more sea ice/snow cover. We're starting to look pretty screwed on snow cover because Siberia's cold air source is cut off by that PV, and the potent +NAO doesn't seem to be improving. Yeah the more favorable pattern for Siberia keeps getting delayed a bit. They've been dry in the western regions which is keeping the snow cover down. The one positive is it looks like we'll end up with a solid +NAO for the month which comes on the heels of a +NAO September. That is a strong combo that usually correlates well to a winter -NAO, but as we've seen the last couple years, it doesn't really seem to matter when its negative in the fall during this current regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Yeah the more favorable pattern for Siberia keeps getting delayed a bit. They've been dry in the western regions which is keeping the snow cover down. The one positive is it looks like we'll end up with a solid +NAO for the month which comes on the heels of a +NAO September. That is a strong combo that usually correlates well to a winter -NAO, but as we've seen the last couple years, it doesn't really seem to matter when its negative in the fall during this current regime. Does the super warm fall pattern with a general +EPO this autumn make you nervous about the winter, or are we getting into the perfect timing for a pattern shift right when it's time for winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Does the super warm fall pattern with a general +EPO this autumn make you nervous about the winter, or are we getting into the perfect timing for a pattern shift right when it's time for winter? No it doesn't bother me yet at all. A lot of past Ninas have done this. Even past Ninas that weren't that warm here in autumn had similar patterns in the PAC. The shorter wavelengths create some nuances that can make our sensible wx different. I'll start getting worried if there are some ugly signs a month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Yeah the more favorable pattern for Siberia keeps getting delayed a bit. They've been dry in the western regions which is keeping the snow cover down. The one positive is it looks like we'll end up with a solid +NAO for the month which comes on the heels of a +NAO September. That is a strong combo that usually correlates well to a winter -NAO, but as we've seen the last couple years, it doesn't really seem to matter when its negative in the fall during this current regime. Yeah there has been the ridge there persisting. East of there looks pretty wintry...even spilling into nw Canada, but those western areas in Russia will be hurting I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Mild? These past couple days were hardly mild when compared to climo for the day. A +20 day in July/Aug would equate to 100F+ temps. Mid 80's and up is a flat out torch for the calender dates. Never even hit 80 here so you must be refering to the CP and other metro areas. yesterday was the day where everyone at every station in SNE hit 80...not today.. Today was always supposed to be a few degrees lower With the exception that not everyone hit 80 you're spot on.lol Memories of last Oct and all the cancel winter calls remain fresh. LOL, If it hasn't started yet it will soon. Major league Winter on the way. West Chesterfield was AOB today at least according to one of it's leading citizens. C'mon Scoob, I never said anything of the sort. I did ,however, point out that Blizz's call for 80+ in GC failed, again. Blizz just wants GC to suffer the same brutal torch conditions that are the norm in his southern, low elevation locale. He will have to move here eventually to escape the heat and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 57/56, A high of 77 (73 @2k), a warm but pleasant day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Never even hit 80 here so you must be refering to the CP and other metro areas. With the exception that not everyone hit 80 you're spot on.lol LOL, If it hasn't started yet it will soon. Major league Winter on the way. C'mon Scoob, I never said anything of the sort. I did ,however, point out that Blizz's call for 80+ in GC failed, again. Blizz just wants GC to suffer the same brutal torch conditions that are the norm in his southern, low elevation locale. He will have to move here eventually to escape the heat and sleet. Your normal high for today is in the upper 50's..If you're 77-78 you're +20..No spinning that my long haired hippy frisbee throwing friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 No, a guy was surf casting in front of us, looks like a 12 pounder, almost 20 minute fight with him he originally hooked him about 20 yds out then he ran beautiful fish, and yes 12-15lb is upper end right now. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 West Chesterfield was AOB today at least according to one of it's leading citizens. He is a little misinformed. 57/56, A high of 77 (73 @2k), a warm but pleasant day. Woah, warmer then the average mid-summer high! Congrats on the +20 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Weenie 18z GFS run d9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Weenie 18z GFS run d9. We're too far east but Poconos/Catskills look good for some snows. GFS and ECM completely disagree on the pattern with the GFS showing a huge trough in the East while the 12z ECM has us at 12C 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Never even hit 80 here so you must be refering to the CP and other metro areas. lol... you are something else, Pete. Always going after the low elevation dwellers Your average high is probably like mine and right around upper 50s to near 60F this time of year... to see mid/upper 70s is incredibly warm. I've noticed your high temps are very similar to what I see up here. We set a record high of 78F up here one of those days and Montpelier at 1,200ft set a record with 77F; I'd imagine your records are similar so you likely had near or record warmth. The equivalent on the cold side would be if we were seeing *highs* in the upper 30s... it would be snowing basically if this warm pattern was inverted in the cold direction. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 We're too far east but Poconos/Catskills look good for some snows. GFS and ECM completely disagree on the pattern with the GFS showing a huge trough in the East while the 12z ECM has us at 12C 850s. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 D9 is a la-la-la-lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Congrats. Its about time we got to see some weenie snow maps, haha. Been a long summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 79 85 84 3 day running highs edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 lol... you are something else, Pete. Always going after the low elevation dwellers Your average high is probably like mine and right around upper 50s to near 60F this time of year... to see mid/upper 70s is incredibly warm. I've noticed your high temps are very similar to what I see up here. We set a record high of 78F up here one of those days and Montpelier at 1,200ft set a record with 77F; I'd imagine your records are similar so you likely had near or record warmth. The equivalent on the cold side would be if we were seeing *highs* in the upper 30s... it would be snowing basically if this warm pattern was inverted in the cold direction. If only... I never said it wasn't warm. I never said it wasn't unusually warm. I only pointed out that we failed to hit 80 as Blizz promised. Temps in the 70's, while unusual for this time of year here just isn't something I feel the need to complain about or spin into some sort of uncomfortable heat wave. It's been nice. The cold and snow will be here soon. I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 We're too far east but Poconos/Catskills look good for some snows. GFS and ECM completely disagree on the pattern with the GFS showing a huge trough in the East while the 12z ECM has us at 12C 850s. 12z EC ens are quite a bit cooler with the mean trough in the ern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I never said it wasn't warm. I never said it wasn't unusually warm. I only pointed out that we failed to hit 80 as Blizz promised. Temps in the 70's, while unusual for this time of year here just isn't something I feel the need to complain about or spin into some sort of uncomfortable heat wave. It's been nice. The cold and snow will be here soon. I promise. if it doesn't snow in your back yard by november 15th you owe me a trip to MRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 12z EC ens are quite a bit cooler with the mean trough in the ern US. Still looks semi mild on them because the flow is almost zonal with maybe a slight trough. But certainly nothing like the all out torch the OP run has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Looks like the insane daytime highs will end as of today, but nightime lows will now drive monster + departures over the next 5 evenings, forecast lows of between 55-60 here during that time. 69 cricket city outside right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Still looks semi mild on them because the flow is almost zonal with maybe a slight trough. But certainly nothing like the all out torch the OP run has. Yeah...I didn't mean to imply cold at all. In fact I believe the 850 temps are still a bit above normal despite the troughy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Looks like the insane daytime highs will end as of today, but nightime lows will now drive monster + departures over the next 5 evenings, forecast lows of between 55-60 here during that time. 69 cricket city outside right now Big departures continue Lows had been ok up until tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Big departures continue Lows had been ok up until tonight 11/16 1800 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I have no problem with this wx. Let it be a mild month - October is essentially a throw away month anyway wx-wise. As long as the cold and snow season commences by the latter half of November I'm happy. I get home from Spain on 11/16 so I think I'm timing that out pretty good. Most years I won't miss much before 11/16. Five hours on a tractor today bush hogging and another day tomorrow, but should wrap it up for the season on Wednesday. It's still pretty wet in places, but this is the only opening probably so have to do it. 57/56, A high of 77 (73 @2k), a warm but pleasant day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yeah...I didn't mean to imply cold at all. In fact I believe the 850 temps are still a bit above normal despite the troughy look. It seems like even with low heights we don't get much cold because we're cut off from the cold air source since the NAO kinda sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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