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October Banter/ Disco II


Baroclinic Zone

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Nice day out today, probably going to leave the board for a while so ill see you guys around. Posted an innocent picture of me and my girlfriend in the OT thread...forkyfork called her a whore, I got called a dick without even saying anything. Just not a place I want to be around. Have a good fall guys

A good rule as you go through life is to not let insecure, clueless jerk offs ruin your day. Aside from the economic threads in politics, which actually hosts some very intelligent posters, I stay out of OT.

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We could be a little bit chilly at the end of this week but it looks transient. Can't rule out a pretty raw day on Wednesday too with low pressure hugging the coast. Could keep us with a ENE/NE flow.

I don't think I buy the GFS cooler pattern next week.

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We could be a little bit chilly at the end of this week but it looks transient. Can't rule out a pretty raw day on Wednesday too with low pressure hugging the coast. Could keep us with a ENE/NE flow.

I don't think I buy the GFS cooler pattern next week.

12z ECM is an absolute torch in the long-range, record breaking warmth across the Plains and Midwest, finally arrives here:

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Dailies for Oct 10 the year 11

BOS +19 85

BDL +13 85

PVD +14 84

ORH +18 79

Once again the daily torch award goes to Beantown with a very close second to Wooooosta......numbers are mind boggling :sun:

and still blazing towards the CP and in the valley floor. The upper valley el. here has been cooling down quickly in the evening.

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12z ECM is an absolute torch in the long-range, record breaking warmth across the Plains and Midwest, finally arrives here:

The OP Euro is probably getting a bit over excited with the amplitude of that ridge...the ensembles are more zonal but still definitely a mild regime.

The ensembles really get a GOA low cranking and it gets far enough west to pop a bit of a PNA ridge in the really long range...beyond the 20th. That could give us a long wave change in the pattern and bring some colder air down, but given the time frame, its plenty uncertain.

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The OP Euro is probably getting a bit over excited with the amplitude of that ridge...the ensembles are more zonal but still definitely a mild regime.

The ensembles really get a GOA low cranking and it gets far enough west to pop a bit of a PNA ridge in the really long range...beyond the 20th. That could give us a long wave change in the pattern and bring some colder air down, but given the time frame, its plenty uncertain.

Are they showing a warm or chilly last week of month?

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Does anyone have the stats handy for Autumn 2007 for Sept/Oct and how much above normal it was..compared to where we from Sept 1- Oct 10 this year? I'd bet this year is warmer..and with the next 10-14 days generally above to much above..I'd also bet we'll eclipse that warmth. Let's just end it by thelast 5 days of the month..so we can have another cold Helloween like last year with winds, temps in the 30's and snow flurries

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Are they showing a warm or chilly last week of month?

It looks seasonable chilly in the long range...the ensembles only go out to the 25th but that time period looks seasonal. I wouldn't call it a cold pattern by any stretch of the imagination, but the longwave torch pattern is gone.

We need to rotate the arctic a bit...all the cold is stuck on the Europe side right now. I'd like to see it start building in Siberia more.

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Does anyone have the stats handy for Autumn 2007 for Sept/Oct and how much above normal it was..compared to where we from Sept 1- Oct 10 this year? I'd bet this year is warmer..and with the next 10-14 days generally above to much above..I'd also bet we'll eclipse that warmth. Let's just end it by thelast 5 days of the month..so we can have another cold Helloween like last year with winds, temps in the 30's and snow flurries

We were +4 in September 2007 and then between +7 and +8 in October that year. This year, we were a bit shy of +4 in September.

I doubt we are anywhere near the 2007 October anomalies this month.

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Does anyone have the stats handy for Autumn 2007 for Sept/Oct and how much above normal it was..compared to where we from Sept 1- Oct 10 this year? I'd bet this year is warmer..and with the next 10-14 days generally above to much above..I'd also bet we'll eclipse that warmth. Let's just end it by thelast 5 days of the month..so we can have another cold Helloween like last year with winds, temps in the 30's and snow flurries

Here was ORH....

September 2007: +4.2F

October 2007: +6.9F

September 2011: +3.5F

October 2011, to date: +2.6F

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Here was ORH....

September 2007: +4.2F

October 2007: +6.9F

September 2011: +3.5F

October 2011, to date: +2.6F

Yeah I don't see us sniffing that type of October anomaly despite the recent torch conditions. The chilly first week makes that so difficult. We'll see a transient cool shot too coming up here. 2007 was just relentless. I think it had like 5 days below avg all month.

I could see us putting up a +4 or +5 this month though which is very impressive in its own right.

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