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October Banter/ Disco II


Baroclinic Zone

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What'd Pete wind up with for a low? He was crowing about hitting the 20s for the first time but it appears temps went up overnight out in GC.

Temps went up in a lot of places before dawn as the wind kicked up. I think a weak trough went through to stir things up a bit. He's in a glen so it may not have really affected him.

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It's up this way...where it will be for the winter.

"up"? lol

models did a good job showing the cool shot centered over eastern new england, as far as winter, its all about longitude this winter, good luck "out" there

You should post in the NYC subforum since your climo is closer to theirs.

frost/freeze phail? I still see your deer tick prancing around....getting kinda late up there no? Hopefully it happens tonight, otherwise jeez might be late oct or early Nov :thumbsdown:

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No..rarely if ever get frost until all the leaves are gone..Just typically get a freeze. There was some frost on grass, rooftops and lawns this morning around 600 feet. Hills typically don't get frost

Had my second frost of the season this morning and hit a seasonal low of 31F

Frost was mostly on roofs and mulch piles, etc.

Local meso-site (QC'd???) hit 30F

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No..rarely if ever get frost until all the leaves are gone..Just typically get a freeze. There was some frost on grass, rooftops and lawns this morning around 600 feet. Hills typically don't get frost

The city (more urban areas of the city) sometimes doesn't hit 32 until the first flakes or even accumulation occurs.

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Kind of an interesting micro-physical connection with the bigger picture…

The soil moisture from Ontario to New England is up thanks to Irene and what not over the past several weeks. I think this moisture is off-setting some of this dry air transport – similarly this may have taken place back in September with that cool snap. It is interesting because the DPs rose in many areas shortly after sunset, and then the temp and DP met in the upper 30s to around 40 in most spots (with a few exceptions here and there).

Here’s the obs from FIT this morning:

061452 CLR 10 56 26 3311G18 258

061352 CLR 10 52 29 3210 260

061252 CLR 10 48 32 VR06 263

061152 CLR 10 43 31 2703 261 001 43 36

061052 CLR 10 37 33 0000 258

060952 CLR 10 40 31 3103 255

Noticing firstly a rather explosive temperature rise… Should be 60-63F there this afternoon, which would mean MOS types are handling nicely – different matter but that is interesting that any transition season MOS output would do well assessing a high temperature; there’s usually a lag in performance there. But, notice the DPs are down into the mid 20s now that we are mixing out the boundary layer. So, that means that the moisture in the boundary layer had to have come from below – ie, the Earth/soil.

It seems pretty intuitively correct to me that if the leading late summer and autumn so far were more arid, then this and the September CAA events would have been drier, and we would have realized more frost and/or freeze conditions more proficiently. It will be interesting tonight because the wind trajectories are even more “calm like”, so there is likely to be more decoupling – a combination of that and an ample soil moisture source from beneath could cause for some pretty good frost types, perhaps even some ground fog-related rhyme in some of the typically colder hollows.

That all said, check out this 24-hour recovery at FIT (and this is obvious true throughout the SNE domain)!

NAM MOS from 06z:

HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12

N/X 37 63 46 79 57

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No..rarely if ever get frost until all the leaves are gone..Just typically get a freeze. There was some frost on grass, rooftops and lawns this morning around 600 feet. Hills typically don't get frost

I usually don't either being on a hillside, but we dropped to 31.8°F in Stafford Springs. I wonder what it was down by the river. They are usually at least a couple of degrees colder than I am on mornings like this. There was frost down there a few weeks ago while I was 38°.

Up to 54 now....I guess we'll see what tomorrow brings before this weekends torch. :thumbsdown:

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