00Z non regional thread.

[usedtobe]

500h trof doesn't look as diggy. Yes there is a weakness off the east coast but the 850 low will go fairly as it comes across the OH valley. It certainly doesn't seem to support the ukmet.

[Ian]

I havent actually even looked at the Euro today but the NAM isn't terribly far off that is it?

[PhineasC]

NAM seems to agree with Euro.

[Inudaw]

The Nam at hour 84 (.... :x ) is more in line with the 12z Euro.. than any other model right now.

[mahk_webstah]

What about that High in Quebec? Does that help drain in some cold air?

[ORH_wxman]

Euro was significantly more wound up than the NAM in the midwest by this point, but the NAM is still closer to the Euro than the GFS/Ukie. One thing the NAM does not agree with the Euro on is the timing of phasing with the PV to the north...its still quite separate at 84h vs 96h on the 12z Euro where the PV was already getting involved.

[earthlight]

The NAM is def. nothing like the GFS, that much we can say here. But as Will said it's nowhere near as wound up as the Euro. One has to wonder if the GFS may have been out to lunch with it's far southeast solution and de-amplified height field over the Northeast, but the Ukie has been steady with that solution as well. Lots of questions that still need to be answered over the next few adys.

[usedtobe]

The Nam at hour 84 (.... :x ) is more in line with the 12z Euro.. than any other model right now.

I don't know whether that is good or bad.

It certainly does look more euro like but so do euro ensemble mean. The latter also has a pretty well defined low center suggesting there is not that much spread. The differences between them and the gfs and gfs ensembles is pretty remarkable. I think the pattern suggests the more northwesterly track of the primary than forecast by the gfs or especially gfs ensemble mean. However, maybe I've got my head in the sand.

[usedtobe]

Euro was significantly more wound up than the NAM in the midwest by this point, but the NAM is still closer to the Euro than the GFS/Ukie. One thing the NAM does not agree with the Euro on is the timing of phasing with the PV to the north...its still quite separate at 84h vs 96h on the 12z Euro where the PV was already getting involved.

To me the main thing is the 500 would not evolve into the strong ukmet solution with the closed off low so far south. That solution to me is the least likely one.

[Inudaw]

I don't know whether that is good or bad.

It certainly does look more euro like but so do euro ensemble mean. The latter also has a pretty well defined low center suggesting there is not that much spread. The differences between them and the gfs and gfs ensembles is pretty remarkable. I think the pattern suggests the more northwesterly track of the primary than forecast by the gfs or especially gfs ensemble mean. However, maybe I've got my head in the sand.

The nam usually has to be looked at with caution at that range... especially if it shows its own solution. However it is backed up by the early 12z euro run. There are differences as noted by others in this thread. All that can be said at this point is that there is significant discrepancies still to be ironed out. Better to look at synoptics and go with what should be favored at this point. With the negatives being the persistent Gulf of Alaskan low and confluence a bit too far north to really keep this from amplifying and cutting west. Favored an inland track of some type verses the coastal solutions at this point.

With most of these variables still in question and the system still not in a good sample region... lots of things can still change.

[bluewave]

SREF mean digs more than the NAM.

[ORH_wxman]

To me the main thing is the 500 would not evolve into the strong ukmet solution with the closed off low so far south. That solution to me is the least likely one.

I agree with you. The Euro might be too wound up, but I think the coastal idea is less likely than a primary track west of the apps. The GEFS and the Ukie want to have the the dominant low as early as when its over NC and then it tracks up the coast. That will be tough to achieve in this pattern.

Certainly not impossible, but there's a lot of ways for it not to happen in this setup.

[usedtobe]

The nam usually has to be looked at with caution at that range... especially if it shows its own solution. However it is backed up by the early 12z euro run. There are differences as noted by others in this thread. All that can be said at this point is that there is significant discrepancies still to be ironed out. Better to look at synoptics and go with what should be favored at this point. With the negatives being the persistent Gulf of Alaskan low and confluence a bit too far north to really keep this from amplifying and cutting west. Favored an inland track of some type verses the coastal solutions at this point.

With most of these variables still in question and the system still not in a good sample region... lots of things can still change.

The sample problem is not limited to the pacific as what happens back in Canada is also a player in resolving how this evolves.

[usedtobe]

SREF mean digs more than the NAM.

I don't see nay of them with the ukmet solution. It makes me wonder where the surface and ensemble mean lows would be.

[Inudaw]

The sample problem is not limited to the pacific as what happens back in Canada is also a player in resolving how this evolves.

Yea.. alot of factors to consider. The evolving -nao, the pv dropping from Canada.. and how much ridging occurs in the pacific north west. ^^;

[bluewave]

I don't see nay of them with the ukmet solution. It makes me wonder where the surface and ensemble mean lows would be.

Yeah,I could see more digging but getting it to close off as far south as the UK was showing looks tough at this point.

[usedtobe]

Yeah,I could see more digging but getting it to close off as far south as the UK was showing looks tough at this point.

The ensemble mean surface low is pretty far north with lots of easterly flow into the mid atlantic states so I think extending it would be bad for I95.

[bluewave]

The ensemble mean surface low is pretty far north with lots of easterly flow into the mid atlantic states so I think extending it would be bad for I95.

Yeah,that's what it looks like.

[usedtobe]

im sort of hoping the gfs folds at this point.. i feel silly rooting it on

at 66 hours it looks like it is. The 850 low is on the WI/IL border. The surface low is in northern IL. The vort is way north of where it needs to be to go south of us. At 84 houurs the surface low is north of Lake Erie but isn't that strong. That might allow western sections back towards winchester to get ice if taken verbatim Anyway, time to go to bed.

[usedtobe]

I may have talked too soon as it does still take a vort pretty far south and gives some light precipitation in the cold air behind the low.

[Dr No]

Very messy... like the GFS doesn't know what to do with the vorts. You'd expect a stronger LP to pop somewhere around the MA coast... but, who knows.

[NJwinter23]

there is hardly even a warm push with this run, at least compared to what the 12z run had, over all storm is just not nearly as impressive this run.

[CarolineWx]

Looks like temps stay in the 30s to lower 40s in most of Virginia during the system

[Rib]

Isn't there a tendency for storms on the models during La-nina to keep trending north in terms of phasing?

[ORH_wxman]

Isn't there a tendency for storms on the models during La-nina to keep trending north in terms of phasing?

I'm not sure of the actual stats, but it anecdotally seems that way to me. It makes physical sense since La Nina is dominated by northern stream systems and the STJ is basically dead during most Ninas. But again, not sure on the actual stats.

[Atlas]

Isn't there a tendency for storms on the models during La-nina to keep trending north in terms of phasing?

Great point Rib, and this will likely happen again.

I'm also very intrigued on how the pattern unfolds on this 00z gfs run. Good atlantic, horrible pacific.

[pojrzsho]

It looks like GFS shows light snows for DC/ NO VA /MD for overnight Sunday into Monday again on this 0z run, yes?

[NJwinter23]

Isn't there a tendency for storms on the models during La-nina to keep trending north in terms of phasing?

I thought I had heard something like that around these boards before. Does appear to be happening in this case. First with the clipper moving by to the north on Friday (in terms of the shortwave trrending north, not phasing) and now with this system on Sunday

[Dr No]

lol! Wouldn't you guess that the GGEM is south tonight. Just northwest of the KY/TN/VA border at 84.

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_084.jpg

[Dr No]

And finally... I'm tired of models... good night.