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southern plains severe threat Oct 6th-8th


Thundersnow12

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2235

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1025 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO/WESTERN KS AND THE TX/OK

PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861...

VALID 080325Z - 080500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 861 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 861 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR

ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/QUICKLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A NNE-SSW ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM

EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO/MUCH OF WESTERN KS...TO NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER

VICINITY. EVEN WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...A HIGH DEGREE OF VERTICAL

SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE 300-600 M2/S2

AMID STRENGTHENING/BACKING WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM...WILL

CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE

TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST

CO/SOUTHWEST KS BORDER TO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KS. WITH TIME...A

TENDENCY FOR CONGEALING STORMS/CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE...ESPECIALLY

GIVEN EVER-INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /AIDED BY THE

PIVOTING SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH/...MAY BEGIN TO TEMPER THE

TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...SUCH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL

NONETHELESS SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WINDS ASIDE FROM

ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/08/2011

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