Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 New supercell rapidly evolved over the past half-hour W of GCK and is now tornado-warned. 90 kts GTG on KDDC (albeit at 10000 ft.). The HRRR did pretty well with the KS storms from what I looked at earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Well hello there... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 926 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT * AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BREWSTER...AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHERN RAWLINS COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Well hello there... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 926 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT * AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BREWSTER...AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHERN RAWLINS COUNTIES. Very nice couplet/hook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 awesome reflectivity image! 110kt g2g at 1000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 awesome reflectivity image! 110kt g2g at 1000ft That'll do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Nice structure embedded within the line too...Along the Sherman/Wallace county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Could someone post an image of the scan after please? I'm w/o GR2AE at present... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Nice structure embedded within the line too...Along the Sherman/Wallace county line. Also just north of Edson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Could someone post an image of the scan after please? I'm w/o GR2AE at present... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Could someone post an image of the scan after please? I'm w/o GR2AE at present... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 SLGT risk again today for the High Plains. Looks more interesting further S than yesterday, to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 SLGT risk again today for the High Plains. Looks more interesting further S than yesterday, to me I'd agree with that as well. The 15z RUC really backs the sfc winds after 21z and creates some extreme low-level shear and the flag at 850mb also is helping that lol would watch anywhere from the Pecos Valley region up into southwest/western KS for something nice and isolated. And FWIW the 12z NAM has 65 news in the northeast TX PH and along the OK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 I'd think storms fire in parts of NE first down into KS and question still remains if we can get a discrete supercell or two in the TX PH after 0z. Also watching southwest TX later on if something can fire off the retrograding dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 071924Z - 072100Z SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE COMMENCING ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AND POSE AN INITIAL RISK FOR PRIMARILY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 40 PERCENT. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20 W GCK N/NEWD TO NEAR EAR AND YKN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG THE FRONT IN N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS MAXIMIZED. DESPITE WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE TROUGHS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST...RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z WRF-NMM SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY INFERS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE A MORE PROMINENT HAIL THREAT...AND BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT GREATER EFFECTIVE SRH IN THE SHORT-TERM. BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. ..GRAMS.. 10/07/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 towers exploding northwest of LBL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 new storms have fired in southwest KS with others trying to go in the northern TX PH. Question is if more discrete cells will go up further south along the dryline as the better height falls arrive from the upper-level system now near the four corners region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Got a couplet west of Grand Island on the GID SRV. Edit: That thing may need a tor warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Looks like things may get interesting in the next several hours... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS / FAR SERN CO / OK-TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 072300Z - 080100Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED/ISSUED BY 00-02 UTC AS STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS. WHILE AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT INITIALLY BE HIGH...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST MARKEDLY INCREASE AFTER DUSK AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT. RECENT LONG LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES A RELAXING IN NEUTRAL TO WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE W OVER THE DESERT SW. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SHOW THE INITIAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OCCUR INVOF THE TX-OK PANHANDLE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES WITHIN A MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME. LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD TO NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR IN THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A LEE LOW OVER SERN CO. CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS IS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE DRYLINE BUT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE MAGNITUDE OF MIXING DECREASES AFTER SUNSET. THIS INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE AS A 50 KT LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE 03-06 UTC PERIOD. AS SUCH...EARLY STORMS THAT CAN ORGANIZE AND BECOME SUSTAINED MAY POSE AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUST RISK. THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE STORM COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE 03-06 UTC PERIOD DURING WHICH A POSSIBLE ISOLD SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED. ..SMITH.. 10/07/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I am sitting here listening to the SPC conference call now. We were on the edge and decided to not be included in this first watch. EDIT: Forget it, the lead just added three counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 The towers looking east just before my 0Z balloon launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 635 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO WESTERN KANSAS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 635 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG A RETREATING DRYLINE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS. THE ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY FAVORS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY NARROW NNE-SSW ORIENTED BAND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NNEWD OVER NM. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 645 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 645 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 861... DISCUSSION...TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT STRONGLY UNSTABLE...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR MAINLY THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE AS WELL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. ...GUYER/THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 8, 2011 Author Share Posted October 8, 2011 The towers looking east just before my 0Z balloon launch. awesome shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 First tor warning of the day issued for Gove/Sheridan Co. KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Jordan Henion has a beautiful lightning-lit storm ahead of him. Edit: Punching the core at night now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Fall severe = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Fall severe = Supercell yesterday night was nice, but yeah these lower potential, high uncertainty/variability events are getting a little redundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011 KSC101-171-080315- /O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-111008T0315Z/ SCOTT KS-LANE KS- 951 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LANE AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT... AT 947 PM CDT...A STORM CHASER REPORTED SEEING POWER FLASHES IN THE VICINITY OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES NORTH OF GRIGSTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HEALY... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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