Thundersnow12 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I have been watching this one for awhile and it looks like with the west coast trof/ULL slowly pushing eastward to Utah by Thursday evening, a fairly impressive mid/upper level jet will be located at the base of the trof and beginning to reach the parts of the southern plains. Moisture advection will begin to take place by tomorrow evening from the TX coast with upper 50/near 60 dew points making their way up to the TX PH by thursday. The one thing that I think will keep this in check will be the quality of low-level moisture. The drought conditions plus possible mixing out during the day east of the dryline will give us less than ideal moisture. But with a fairly impressive dynamics and a pretty decent dryline centered over eastern NM moving to the central TX PH by saturday looking at the 12z GFS, possible severe thunderstorms should fire off that each afternoon and evening. Small amounts of instability around 1000 j/kg will be available each day to work with. With the ULL drifting northeastward by Saturday evening up to WY, models are showing 60 dews getting up all the way to SD thanks to a impressive LLJ pumping moisture norhward each day. We'll see what happens. The 12z NAM is showing low-level mixing problems pretty well. 12z GFS moisture for saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Been watching this trough for awhile and really, really hoping for something respectable to come of it. But I just don't see anything significant happening because of the overall pattern limiting moisture quality. The "return flow" will basically consist of continental air circulating around the big eastern CONUS high. And if I've learned anything about fall severe weather in this part of the country, it's that very good moisture return is a necessity due to typically-poor mid-level lapse rates. We'll see, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 The 0z NAM really shows the low-level moisture mixing problem during the day in the TX PH on thursday but....its showing much better moisture during the morning on friday..low 60's up to southern KS 65 dews making it up SPS and 70's in southern TX. That is a serious LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Moisture for Thursday actually seems to be improving ever-so-slightly on each new run of the NAM. Given the instability axis will be over the High Plains, where it doesn't take much sometimes, maybe I shouldn't have been quite so fast to dismiss this. SWODY3 mentions the threat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Moisture for Thursday actually seems to be improving ever-so-slightly on each new run of the NAM. Given the instability axis will be over the High Plains, where it doesn't take much sometimes, maybe I shouldn't have been quite so fast to dismiss this. SWODY3 mentions the threat now. ...NRN PLAINS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS... DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NWD AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE CURRENT D2 OUTLOOK...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH SUBSTANTIALLY RICHER MOISTURE RETURNING THAN THE NAM/ECMWF AND NON-SPECTRAL MEMBERS OF THE SREF. CONSENSUS OF THE FAVORED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NRN PLAINS TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 07/00Z...WITHIN A LONGITUDINALLY CONFINED AXIS GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SRN/ERN CONUS IN PRECEDING DAYS. ALTHOUGH FORCING MAY REMAIN WEAK OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL TO SRN HIGH PLAINS OWING TO EJECTING LEAD IMPULSES PRIMARILY TRACKING N/NEWD FROM THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEST BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH 500 MB S/SWLYS STRENGTHENING TO AOA 50-60 KT AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGING DURING THE EARLY EVENING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL/WIND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 AMA IF CONVECTION DOES INITIATE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 55 KT. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WEAK FORCING...COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND BUOYANCY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ARGUE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL WITH ANY INITIAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEPENDS UPON WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Wow at the H5 jet on the 0z GFS for Thursday, although, as mentioned, the instability will likely be lackluster. Friday could also see some activity due the larger extent of instability/moisture and still significant flow in the mid and lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2011 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN SD TO THE TX PANHANDLE... ..SYNOPSIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BECOME ELONGATED AS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM /CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST/ REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS BY THU MORNING AND THEN EJECTS NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI...WHILE A SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS CA INTO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED INVOF THE NEB/CO/WY BORDER AREA ON THU AFTERNOON AND THEN DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING WWD DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND SURGE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ..NRN PLAINS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NWD AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF GREATER MOISTURE...THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SRN/ERN CONUS IN PRECEDING DAYS WILL RESTRICT THE AMPLITUDE AND LONGITUDINAL EXTENT OF A MODIFIED WRN GULF AIR MASS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BY 07/00Z...THIS SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...A LARGE SWATH OF 500 MB S/SWLYS AOA 50 KT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AOA 50 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER FAVORABLE SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE. FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS N/NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WITH SRN EXTENT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AND HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL TSTMS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. IN THE NRN PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE TO SOME EXTENT FOR MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAKER EFFECTIVE SHEAR RELATIVE TO FARTHER S. SCATTERED TSTMS APPEAR PROBABLE TO FORM AND SHOULD CONSIST OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 AMA fcst soundings and hodographs off the NAM for thursday evening at 0z and 3z...the LLJ goes nuts after 0z and really goes nut with a big time curved and looped hodograph with 900mb winds at 50kts and sfc winds really back and strengthen to 30kts. Also getting 1500 j/kg of CAPE at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 AMA fcst soundings and hodographs off the NAM for thursday evening at 0z and 3z...the LLJ goes nuts after 0z and really goes nut with a big time curved and looped hodograph with 900mb winds at 50kts and sfc winds really back and strengthen to 30kts. Also getting 1500 j/kg of CAPE at 0z. Liking that 420 m2/s2 0-2 km SRH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Liking that 420 m2/s2 0-2 km SRH... Not liking the LCLs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Not liking the LCLs... True enough DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2011 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD TO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... THE ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL EVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ON FRI. THE MORE VIGOROUS IMPULSE WILL MOVE N/NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO S-CNTRL CANADA...WHILE THE SECONDARY IMPULSE SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER ON FRI MORNING WILL TRACK N/NEWD INTO MANITOBA BY EVENING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN...WHILE TRAILING PORTION BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO WRN TX. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO WRN TX... A CONTINUED FETCH OF STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO D2 AND SHOULD LEAD TO 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM SERN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE ON FRI AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE LARGELY RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH 50-65 KT SWLYS AT 500 MB OVERSPREADING THE FRONTAL AXIS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INITIAL SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WITH MEAN FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...TSTMS COULD QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS PRIMARILY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS INTO WRN TX AS THE LLJ NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS...AND THE FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LINGERING INTO FRI NIGHT. ...RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND/MN... AS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...AN ATTENDANT BELT OF INTENSE 700-500 MB S/SWLYS SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ON FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR AND WITH RELATIVELY MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MAY ONLY RESULT IN MINIMAL INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 While cloud bases will be a bit on the high side tomorrow across the Texas Panhandle, I caution those who think that tornadoes are not a distinct possibility with any organized supercell. This graphic comes from the 09Z SREF. Instability values have increased on recent model runs and as said above, low level wind shear is quite favorable for organized rotation. I do believe there is a distinct tornado threat tomorrow in the Texas Panhandle, conditional on if we get any organized supercells to develop. As of right now, I'm planning on chasing tomorrow. If I bust, oh well. It's a good excuse to visit the Big Texan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 This is off the 12Z NAM and is valid at 7 PM Thursday for Amarillo. At first glance, the first few things that pop out are the LCL/LFC heights around 1500M which is supportive of the possibility of tornadoes with organized supercells, and the 3 KM CAPE values of around 125 J/Kg, which isn't too bad for a fall event and what you begin to look for as you head further into fall. Overall instability values appear to be at least 1,500 J/Kg but I'd expect some locally higher amounts where we have differential heating boundaries along with remnant OFBs from today's convection. Convective inhibition isn't too strong, but then again we won't have a lot of forcing in place either. Thanks to the convection on-going at the time of this post, I do believe we'll have several remnant boundaries laying around which should help increase forcing in localized areas. In my opinion, this setup looks much better then it did a few days ago and I am planning on chasing tomorrow, possibly staying overnight Thursday and doing the same on Friday. Finally, one thing to note will be the increased storm motion since we're now dealing with more dynamic systems. That's one thing I dislike about fall events, but hopefully the right movers will park it at about 25-30 MPH instead of the 40 MPH northeast motion most cells will be taking. Overall, I'm pretty optimistic about the possibility of some awesome supercell structure tomorrow in the Texas Panhandle and being on the caprock should help forcing/cloud bases a bit. With boundaries in place and the overall favorable low level environment, we could see a tornado or two tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 And cloud bases will lower near sunset and low-level shear will increase substantially after 0z due to the strong LLJ really increase hodograph size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 The dew point at LBB has went from 30 to 60 in the last 11 hours...thats quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Both the 12z 4km WRF and 18z NAM are not breaking out precip on the dryline south of I-70 but the NAM does have pretty good H7 RH signal showing some ascent taking place in the TX PH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Surprise early attack today? Classic supercell evident on KLBB near Olton, TX, with a TVS. No warning right now, but the environment is not half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Surprise early attack today? Classic supercell evident on KLBB near Olton, TX, with a TVS. No warning right now, but the environment is not half bad. around 80kts g2g right now on the lowest scan at 3kft, not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 Quite suprised either of those supercells aren't tor warned, cloud bases can't be that high...68/61 and 64/59, besides that its a nice little environment..60kts of 0-6km shear and 0-1 SRH around 150. The southern sup had 100kt g2g about 30 mins ago. And both have thrown off left splits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 New Day 1: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2011 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A POWERFUL WEST COAST TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY EVENING. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER NERN CO AND ERN MT...GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A LEE TROUGH...WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THEREAFTER...THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND...AND A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE NRN CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN CA COAST...PROGRESSING TO THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG DEEP-LAYER SLYS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S QUICKLY DEVELOPING NWD. BROAD HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST THE FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ROCKIES. AS DIURNAL HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH COOLING ALOFT GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTES TO STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODES. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING MAY QUICKLY LEAD TO MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS. IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN...LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /400+ M2/S2 SFC-3 KM SRH/. SHOULD A DISCRETE STORM FORM...ROTATION WILL BE LIKELY...AND GIVEN LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN SD AND FAR NW/N CNTRL NEB...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEREAFTER...STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE...PROGRESSING EWD AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... FARTHER S...THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...WITH WEAK TO NEUTRAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE AREA GENERALLY SUPPRESSING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS INITIALLY IN THE 60S...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL REDUCE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON 0530Z WV IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTING MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ULTIMATELY HINDERING MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...WITH WEAK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ..HURLBUT/SMITH/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2011 And a snippet from the new Day 2: MEANWHILE...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...AND AHEAD OF THE LINGERING IMPULSE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR THE COLD FRONTAL INTERSECTION WITH A DRY LINE...SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY LINE...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RETREAT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY REACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG...WHICH COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. ASSOCIATED ENLARGEMENT OF CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AFTER DARK. ..KERR.. 10/06/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 The 12z 4km WRF makes the LBB/PVW area look quite interesting this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 That's actually yesterday's run... something screwy going on with the NCEP models the past 24 hours or so. Anyway, the environment over the TX PH looks good today but alas, there will be no convection to show for it. HRRR does make NW NE look interesting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 That's actually yesterday's run... something screwy going on with the NCEP models the past 24 hours or so. Anyway, the environment over the TX PH looks good today but alas, there will be no convection to show for it. HRRR does make NW NE look interesting, though. Yep, looks like the TX PH should remain quiet. Lets see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 alot of cu going up in this area but man is it dry, some serious sfc winds though, southeast winds from 30-40kts. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN NEB...WRN SWRN SD...FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 062019Z - 062215Z INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH WIND LATER THIS EVENING. A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER N CNTRL CO INTO SERN WY AND INTO WRN SD WHERE WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR WAS PUSHING WWD. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INITIALLY LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER NRN CO...BUT WITH TIME...FORCING NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. FORCING WILL ALSO BE STRONG NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TREKS NNEWD INTO SWRN SD THIS EVENING. HERE...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. TO THE S...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A LINE OF CELLS OR A MERGED LINE OF CELLS IS MOST LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 10/06/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 if something can fire from western/southwest KS down into the TX PH its going to be pretty nice if it can sustain itself. Already a nice environment in place and will improve over the next several hours. Some weak cu just now going up but nothing major right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 It took Cory posting in OT to make me realize what a fool I have been. TORNADO WARNINGNEC031-070030- /O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0059.111007T0001Z-111007T0030Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 601 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 630 PM MDT * AT 557 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 61 AND SHADBOLT ROAD...OR 23 MILES EAST OF GORDON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... MERRIMAN AROUND 610 PM MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 I'd watch the storm moving north in western KS near I-70, up to 70 dbz aloft and looking decent right now. Also tops to 45kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 really improved on the last scan..def a supercell with that hook and inflow notch. 85kt inflow winds at 3000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 New supercell rapidly evolved over the past half-hour W of GCK and is now tornado-warned. 90 kts GTG on KDDC (albeit at 10000 ft.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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