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Hudson Bay Winter of 2011-2012 Tracking Thread

The_Global_Warmer

By The_Global_Warmer,
in Climate Change

  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. When will the Hudson Bay freeze over completely the first time?

    • December 1st to 8th
      1
    • December 9th to 16th
      3
    • December 17th to 24th
      3
    • December 24th to 31st
      9
    • January 1st to 7th
      4
    • January 8th to 15th
      2
    • January 16th to 22nd
      4
    • January 23rd to January 31st
      1
    • After February 1st
      0

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

Moderate gains today. I'd say we'll be 100% iced over in 3-4 days

That is not the chart that will be used for verification. It was explained clearly in the thread title, and by me on several occasions throughout the thread which chart will be used.

The actual chart, which has much better resolution than the map you posted, has significantly more open water.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

Called December 17th-24th

baring any torches...I think I win

Lots of people getting way ahead of themselves and not realizing how long it normally takes for the SE of the bay to freeze once the rest has frozen. Might still make the 23rd or 24th but I'd say we're 50/50 on freezing by the 24th.

There's a good chance it is 100% by the 23rd but if it doesn't make it by then it could be more like the 27th because there is a warm spell after the next cold snap.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It is interesting how long it is taking the SE section of the Hudson Bay to freeze. My 24th-31st prediction might just be right, after all. :)

Its pretty close now...down to a very small area that lacks >15% concentration...with absolutely frigid conditions there over the next 3 days, I'd feel good about it complete by the 23rd.

arcticssmisnic.png

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

Very close now, I think this will freeze within the next three days putting the winning date at 12/17-12/24.

Yep probably at this point, although it would be nice to have AMSRE instead of SSMI to be sure.

The warm SSTs ended up having even less of an effect than I thought, and I was the one advocating their lack of significance. It's basically all about the weather as I suggested.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Yep probably at this point, although it would be nice to have AMSRE instead of SSMI to be sure.

The warm SSTs ended up having even less of an effect than I thought, and I was the one advocating their lack of significance. It's basically all about the weather as I suggested.

I think my guess of Dec 28 would be the 4th latest freeze on record, only '10-11 (Jan 21), '01-02 (Jan 5) and '99-00 (Dec 31) would be later. I don't feel comfortable guessing later than Dec 28 based on SSTs alone when weather is the predominant factor. I'll look for some OHC data, if OHC is extreme as the SSTs, then I would adjust my guess a few days later, but weather will still be a major factor.

I think that the abnormally slow freeze the last two years is due to the deep and extended Greenland blocks that have been present. Weather patterns such as this will have a much more enormous impact than above average SST's....

I'm going with 12/17-12/24

I think Marrietta's argument is pretty clear.. "weather is more important than SSTs"

For the most part, I agree. Though of course SSTs will have some impact, which is why I guessed slightly later than average, but the correlation is very weak.

I'm not sure why marrietta is guessing average or even slightly before average, given the SSTs though. You've got to give them some weight I think.

I gave them less weight than you is why I guessed earlier, although we both guessed pretty close to the same. I think I just gave them less credence than you by a smidge. Regardless of the actual freeze date we both made a pretty good guess with very similar ideas of why it would happen. You could still end up with the winning date, no guarantee that 12/17-12/24 is correct.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

I gave them less weight than you is why I guessed earlier, although we both guessed pretty close to the same. I think I just gave them less credence than you by a smidge. Regardless of the actual freeze date we both made a pretty good guess with very similar ideas of why it would happen. You could still end up with the winning date, no guarantee that 12/17-12/24 is correct.

Yep.. you were right it didn't appear to have any affect at all. The weather wasn't even that cold. Slightly warmer (+2) than average Dec 1-20 actually over the bay. I think wind direction may be a major factor too though. Last year IIRC the wind was anomalously easterly, this year it was not. Favorable winds might have overridden any affect warm SSTs might have had.

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
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Posted

If ssts were normal in the hudson on November 1st. I would think the bay would have been frozen already.

850s have been 2-4C below normal the last three weeks over the bay and local region.

SATS have been 2C above normal same time period.

the pattern has been pretty favorable.

Last year was much warmer.

I think normal ssts would have yield a freeze up much earlier

But it is.clear they do not drive this train in December but add some fuel

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Alpha5

Alpha5

Posted
Posted

If ssts were normal in the hudson on November 1st. I would think the bay would have been frozen already.

850s have been 2-4C below normal the last three weeks over the bay and local region.

SATS have been 2C above normal same time period.

the pattern has been pretty favorable.

Last year was much warmer.

I think normal ssts would have yield a freeze up much earlier

But it is.clear they do not drive this train in December but add some fuel

With regard to the ice in the bay...i think the NAO is really the be all/end all. You either have a ridge pushing in and turning winds to the east off the ocean, or you have a vortex that recycles frigid air.

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PhillipS

PhillipS

Posted
Posted

I have a question or two - and please understand I'm just trying to adequately understand your posts on this thread.

Am I correct in thinking that you're using the Hudson Bay sea ice extent, and not sea ice area, for determining when the Hudson Bay is fully frozen?

The reason I ask is that Cryosphere Today, which is the site I generally go to for sea ice info, still shows a fair amount of open water in the Hudson Bay area. Here's the current plot:

post-6654-0-26729700-1324591650.jpg

The Hudson Bay has about 950K km2 of sea ice, and will be fully frozen at about 1,200K km2 of sea ice. Meaning there are still about 250K km2 of open water. Roughly 20% of the Hudson Bay region, as they define it, is still unfrozen.

Are you using a different definition than CT of the Hudson Bay geographical area?

Is the bay declared frozen the first day the sea ice extent reaches 100%, or does it have to stay at that value for some period? I understand that extent is any water with more than 15% ice coverage, so wind and currents can add a lot of short term variation to extent figures.

Does the sea ice melt season begin the first day the extent drops back below 100%?

Well, that was more than two questions so clearly I really need some help.

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
  • Author
Posted

With regard to the ice in the bay...i think the NAO is really the be all/end all. You either have a ridoge pushing in and turning winds to the east off the ocean, or you have a vortex that recycles frigid air.

I dont think we are discussing the same thing.

I have over and over and over I was wrong about the ssts role in the freeze up.

That does not mean the heat in the water "cooled" off in 6 hours.

the water is supposed to be near freezing or below in the entire bay b

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SVT450R

SVT450R

Posted
Posted

I have a question or two - and please understand I'm just trying to adequately understand your posts on this thread.

Am I correct in thinking that you're using the Hudson Bay sea ice extent, and not sea ice area, for determining when the Hudson Bay is fully frozen?

The reason I ask is that Cryosphere Today, which is the site I generally go to for sea ice info, still shows a fair amount of open water in the Hudson Bay area. Here's the current plot:

post-6654-0-26729700-1324591650.jpg

The Hudson Bay has about 950K km2 of sea ice, and will be fully frozen at about 1,200K km2 of sea ice. Meaning there are still about 250K km2 of open water. Roughly 20% of the Hudson Bay region, as they define it, is still unfrozen.

Are you using a different definition than CT of the Hudson Bay geographical area?

Is the bay declared frozen the first day the sea ice extent reaches 100%, or does it have to stay at that value for some period? I understand that extent is any water with more than 15% ice coverage, so wind and currents can add a lot of short term variation to extent figures.

Does the sea ice melt season begin the first day the extent drops back below 100%?

Well, that was more than two questions so clearly I really need some help.

I believe the area that everyone in the thread is talking about is circled in black and the plot you posted is including the red circled area which still has a big area of open water. I may be wrong if so can someone explain it then.

post-1243-0-48879600-1324623004.png

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
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Congrats on the winners. I am going with the 24th or 25th. So it is up to you guys to pick a winner.

Once the AMSR went down. It was a lot harder to judge a complete freeze over without the high resolution Bremen images.

I am not here to play any games...I do not want a fight over this.

arctic_SSMIS_visual-1-1.png

That is the 25th. There is a small area of light blues but it looks like it's considered 15% OR MORE and since 98% of the bay is covered fully, good enough for me.

According to the paper Skier posted on page 1. The average freeze up date is the 4th but that may have also been like 2/3rds....

I would assume 2011 is between 4th and 5th during the satelitte era. I believe 1998, 2006, and 2010 froze later, correct me if I am wrong please.

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