Hudson Bay Winter of 2011-2012 Tracking Thread

[TerryM]

How fast can Hudson Bay freeze over?

[The_Global_Warmer]

I'm not sure some people on here realize how fast Hudson Bay can freeze over.

I'm also not sure why this is a whole thread in the climate change forum.

Because it is the epitome of climate change all in a nice small package. It is a very close equivalent to the arctic sea ice decline on a smaller scale. But really it is it's own very unique way to track climate change.

it is is a saline filled body of water roughly between 52.5 & 63.5N with a limited connection to outside water. But is connected directly to the arctic from the North with Channels leading to the arctic ocean(albeit small) and a larger water way to the Atlantic Ocean.

Bottom Line is that it is a major player in putting a face on climate change.

But the real reason this thread exists is trolls not allowing it in the main arctic sea ice thread without vile insulting posts for discussing this. But I believe it is important as well as others. And considering there are many peer-reviewed studies on Hudson Bay Ice and subsequent climate changes, so do others.

[dabize]

Because it is the epitome of climate change all in a nice small package. It is a very close equivalent to the arctic sea ice decline on a smaller scale. But really it is it's own very unique way to track climate change.

it is is a saline filled body of water roughly between 52.5 & 63.5N with a limited connection to outside water. But is connected directly to the arctic from the North with Channels leading to the arctic ocean(albeit small) and a larger water way to the Atlantic Ocean.

Bottom Line is that it is a major player in putting a face on climate change.

But the real reason this thread exists is trolls not allowing it in the main arctic sea ice thread without vile insulting posts for discussing this. But I believe it is important as well as others. And considering there are many peer-reviewed studies on Hudson Bay Ice and subsequent climate changes, so do others.

I think of HB as being the Baltic minus the influence of the Gulf stream.

It helps factor out the effect of deep water (there isn't any) as well.

So it is indeed quite interesting from the POV of analyzing the mechanism of AGW.

[tacoman25]

How fast can Hudson Bay freeze over?

Looking at previous years, it can go from little ice to completely ice covered in a couple of weeks. Just depends on what weather patterns you get when.

[dabize]

Looking at previous years, it can go from little ice to completely ice covered in a couple of weeks. Just depends on what weather patterns you get when.

Exactly.........this baseline is why HB freezing rate should be a sensitive indicator of whether anything has fundamentally changed in the heat storage department, as Friv has suggested.

[skierinvermont]

I'm not sure some people on here realize how fast Hudson Bay can freeze over.

I'm also not sure why this is a whole thread in the climate change forum.

Well I think it's a topic of particular interest given how extreme the changes there have been (average 100% freeze date has shifted nearly a month) and its proximity to most of us living in the U.S. and Canada. Unlike the East Siberian Sea, I've actually been to Hudson Bay. The change in freeze date also effects regional weather and ecosystems.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Exactly.........this baseline is why HB freezing rate should be a sensitive indicator of whether anything has fundamentally changed in the heat storage department, as Friv has suggested.

Well. We can already see that is has to some extent this year and could still be completely ice covered by Christmas.

The Surface water has been running below normal for a large portion of the hudson for a few weeks....

finally ice has exloded over the NW side but again there will be alot of turbulent wind shifts.

There have been lots of days with SE winds coming across the bay.

this has been where late summer temps were 12-15C, this has probably pulled a lot of warm water NW and mixed it down preventing ice formation up to this point.

[superjames1992]

Exactly.........this baseline is why HB freezing rate should be a sensitive indicator of whether anything has fundamentally changed in the heat storage department, as Friv has suggested.

You have to be careful about using localized areas, though, as local weather patterns have a lot of influence over the Hudson Bay's freeze date. Nevertheless, some conclusions could be drawn from a data set large enough.

[dabize]

You have to be careful about using localized areas, though, as local weather patterns have a lot of influence over the Hudson Bay's freeze date. Nevertheless, some conclusions could be drawn from a data set large enough.

Sure, but I'm just saying that because the average rate of freeze is so high (see that mean ice coverage map), it should be a very sensitive indicator of a fundamental change in heat budget .....if such a change occurs or has occurred.

Yes, I'd want an N of several years before drawing any conclusions, but that is generally true about AGW anyway.

[tacoman25]

What were the freeze over dates in 2008 and 2009?

[superjames1992]

Sure, but I'm just saying that because the average rate of freeze is so high (see that mean ice coverage map), it should be a very sensitive indicator of a fundamental change in heat budget .....if such a change occurs or has occurred.

Yes, I'd want an N of several years before drawing any conclusions, but that is generally true about AGW anyway.

Ah, okay. I agree.

What were the freeze over dates in 2008 and 2009?

From the OP (Friv):

2010-11: Jan 21

2009-10: Dec 26

2008-09: Dec 20

2007-08: Dec 14

2006-07: Dec 26

2005-06: Dec 23

If we do freeze over before January this season, it appears that we will be falling back into the average of the last decade or so. Perhaps, last year's January 21st date was an anomaly. We shall see.

I am feeling pretty good about by December 24th - January 1st prediction at the moment.

[tacoman25]

Ah, okay. I agree.

From the OP (Friv):

2010-11: Jan 21

2009-10: Dec 26

2008-09: Dec 20

2007-08: Dec 14

2006-07: Dec 26

2005-06: Dec 23

If we do freeze over before January this season, it appears that we will be falling back into the average of the last decade or so. Perhaps, last year's January 21st date was an anomaly. We shall see.

I am feeling pretty good about by December 24th - January 1st prediction at the moment.

Thanks. It was definitely an anomaly due mainly to the very persistent/strong west-based -NAO early last winter. Not going to come anywhere close to that this winter, and I will be shocked if it's not in the same time frame as those other years. Which I think will prove that it's not necessarily due to warm summer temps causing the water to hold heat longer. Much more due to the December pattern.

[dabize]

I almost went for 12/24-31, but chose 1/1-7 instead.

Pretty random, really.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The date the bay freezes over had little to do with the added heat content of the water or warmer air temps around the bay.

The most affected thing wil be late

the freeze takes place which in this case is early December. Which is 2-4 weeks later then the recent past and even later than 2010.

[tacoman25]

The date the bay freezes over had little to do with the added heat content of the water or warmer air temps around the bay.

The most affected thing wil be late

the freeze takes place which in this case is early December. Which is 2-4 weeks later then the recent past and even later than 2010.

I thought you were saying that was part of the reason it froze over so late last year?

And the main thing being discussed/predicted here is when the bay wil freeze over...

[TerryM]

Ice coverage as of 11/26 (last available until 12/04 is in the books) from 1979-2011

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/IceGraph103/CwtClimChtSrvlt?region=chb14_00&nrmlsta=1979&nrmlend=2010&sizex=800&sizey=600〈=en&showwarn=false&plotnormal=true&plotmedian=false&plottrend=false&plotwarn=false&plotscaled=false&cachelife=1&errorpage=/page2.jsp&charttype=stac&ssnsta=1979&ssnend=2011&histdtsta=1126&histdtend=1211&format=ct

[dabize]

Ice coverage as of 11/26 (last available until 12/04 is in the books) from 1979-2011

http://ice-glaces.ec...=1211&format=ct

Interesting.......

Looks like quite the trend toward later freezup onset.

Looks like there is a a relatively small holdover effect from the previous year, though

Also interesting that neither 2007 nor 2008 are particularly late, suggesting that there isn't a tight synch with the Arctic ice extent as a whole.

[tacoman25]

Models are showing increasingly colder air over Hudson Bay over the next week. Wouldn't surprise me if freeze comes as early as the 20th, if the pattern continues that direction.

[dabize]

I just noticed your point here - 2007 shows a stronger initial slope (freeze rate) than ANY of the more recent years, which is consistent with a pretty late finish for 2011. I'll echo James: I like my call of January 1-7.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I thought you were saying that was part of the reason it froze over so late last year?

And the main thing being discussed/predicted here is when the bay wil freeze over...

This post will be to track the Husdon Bay Sea Ice, SSTs, and anything related to Hudson Bay Weather and Water. Also the local regions weather on either side of the Hudson or most of Northern Canada that pertains to Sea Ice, SSTs, or local weather.

A Poll will accompany the thread that is solely to track the date the Hudson will completely freeze over.

The above is the first few lines of the first post of this thread that I started.

The blue is particularly important because it is the mission statement of the thread which states no single main thing being discussed or predicted. I only created this thread to get away from the endless trolling in the main sea ice thread. But in doing so we have learned a lot of valuable climate information about the Hudson. I Know I have. I have no quarrels about admitting how wrong I was about exactly what the warm SSTs and overall body of water near the surface would do with the refreeze. So it plays a part because the added heat into the system as well as the SATs have helped push the Hudson's ice formation date back quite a bit. This will have an impact on the final date when the entire Bay is considered ice covered. How the ice was in late May and June can also play a role since the sun is powerful then as well over the bay. If the water is exposed or the ice is snow free or it is thin it can allow a lot of heat in during those high isolation days. That can push back the start of the freeze up. Which will have an effect on the 100 % freeze up date.

if the Bay is cool enough to start freezing up November 1st instead of December 1st. It won't take as long to freeze over than if it waited a whole month to get to that point.

Maybe one day you will decide to play scientists on here again instead of what your doing now.

[dabize]

The above is the first few lines of the first post of this thread that I started.

The blue is particularly important because it is the mission statement of the thread which states no single main thing being discussed or predicted. I only created this thread to get away from the endless trolling in the main sea ice thread. But in doing so we have learned a lot of valuable climate information about the Hudson. I Know I have. I have no quarrels about admitting how wrong I was about exactly what the warm SSTs and overall body of water near the surface would do with the refreeze. So it plays a part because the added heat into the system as well as the SATs have helped push the Hudson's ice formation date back quite a bit. This will have an impact on the final date when the entire Bay is considered ice covered. How the ice was in late May and June can also play a role since the sun is powerful then as well over the bay. If the water is exposed or the ice is snow free or it is thin it can allow a lot of heat in during those high isolation days. That can push back the start of the freeze up. Which will have an effect on the 100 % freeze up date.

if the Bay is cool enough to start freezing up November 1st instead of December 1st. It won't take as long to freeze over than if it waited a whole month to get to that point.

Maybe one day you will decide to play scientists on here again instead of what your doing now.

I don't know about anyone else, but I think this thread is very interesting. The HB is a relatively simple system (vs the Arctic or the Earth as a whole), and we have hypotheses to test (maybe not by experiment, but at least by correlation).

I have been a scientist for 25 years (an amateur at this, but I know science). I think this kind of discussion is fun and also worthwhile - much better than jumping into the baboon troop mentality that pervades all too many of these threads, whatever the topic.

[PhillipS]

I don't know about anyone else, but I think this thread is very interesting. The HB is a relatively simple system (vs the Arctic or the Earth as a whole), and we have hypotheses to test (maybe not by experiment, but at least by correlation).

I have been a scientist for 25 years (an amateur at this, but I know science). I think this kind of discussion is fun and also worthwhile - much better than jumping into the baboon troop mentality that pervades all too many of these threads, whatever the topic.

Um, I believe the politically correct term is "Simian-American". And whatever you do, don't call them "Denialists" - they feel threatened and begin hooting and flinging feces.

[tacoman25]

Um, I believe the politically correct term is "Simian-American". And whatever you do, don't call them "Denialists" - they feel threatened and begin hooting and flinging feces.

So now we've gone from using a term previously reserved for unbelievers of the Holocaust to monkees? Brilliant!

[dabize]

So now we've gone from using a term previously reserved for unbelievers of the Holocaust to monkees? Brilliant!

"Baboon troop mentality" was meant to refer to a mindless groupthink in which everyone follows the coolest (alpha) purveyor of conventional wisdom regardless of the strength of their arguments. Think 7th grade.

However, if the shoe fits.........

[The_Global_Warmer]

Big Time extent gains over the Northern 1/3rd of the Hudson Bay.

It took about 8-14 days once the surface cooled to optimal ice forming conditions for ice to form pending on the location. The Hudson can ice over faster than the arctic. especially the further south we go. The Hudson is not as deep and it does not have as much salt in it. The southern part of the bay can be cold enough down to 5-10 meters and form ice while the average arctic column must be 25-50 meters of fresh cold water. This is part of the reason the Hudson Bay can ice over so fast as Tacoman eluded to earlier. It also can ice over fast because a polar air-mass sitting over the bay for a week or two when the bay is close to optimal conditions can send a large portion of the bay over the edge for ice growth.

Ice growth should slow a bit the next 2-3 days from the 5th to 7th. Then Explode as a polar air-mass comes in. Surface temps on the -25C to -35C range will be flowing into the bay. This will definitely force remaining heat out fast. In fact an SLP is progged to deepen as it heads south but it just doesn't just deepen. It seems like it almost transfers it along the Northern Coast where it stalls out.

Deep cold settles into the area from the 7th to the 13th at least and possibly longer.

I would expect the Western side to freeze over by the 13th with about 65-70% iced over by the 13-15th if this pans out with the only ice free parts on the Eastern and SE side.

All in all if this pattern keeps up it is pretty certain the Hudson will be frozen over 100 percent between the 25th and 31st will certainly bust hardcore unless the pattern flips.

I think Skier will be very close. I hope to dig further into this as time goes on. And it will be interesting to see this process unfold the next month the same way I have the sea ice this fall.

[dabize]

Big Time extent gains over the Northern 1/3rd of the Hudson Bay.

It took about 8-14 days once the surface cooled to optimal ice forming conditions for ice to form pending on the location. The Hudson can ice over faster than the arctic. especially the further south we go. The Hudson is not as deep and it does not have as much salt in it. The southern part of the bay can be cold enough down to 5-10 meters and form ice while the average arctic column must be 25-50 meters of fresh cold water. This is part of the reason the Hudson Bay can ice over so fast as Tacoman eluded to earlier. It also can ice over fast because a polar air-mass sitting over the bay for a week or two when the bay is close to optimal conditions can send a large portion of the bay over the edge for ice growth.

Ice growth should slow a bit the next 2-3 days from the 5th to 7th. Then Explode as a polar air-mass comes in. Surface temps on the -25C to -35C range will be flowing into the bay. This will definitely force remaining heat out fast. In fact an SLP is progged to deepen as it heads south but it just doesn't just deepen. It seems like it almost transfers it along the Northern Coast where it stalls out.

Deep cold settles into the area from the 7th to the 13th at least and possibly longer.

I would expect the Western side to freeze over by the 13th with about 65-70% iced over by the 13-15th if this pans out with the only ice free parts on the Eastern and SE side.

All in all if this pattern keeps up it is pretty certain the Hudson will be frozen over 100 percent between the 25th and 31st will certainly bust hardcore unless the pattern flips.

I think Skier will be very close. I hope to dig further into this as time goes on. And it will be interesting to see this process unfold the next month the same way I have the sea ice this fall.

Yup sure looks like "explosive" growth all right.

What is impressive about the freeze-up record for HB is the way that the pattern for each year seems so autonomous relative to the year preceding and succeeding.

Seems as if HB is simply too shallow to "store" anything.

[tacoman25]

Yup sure looks like "explosive" growth all right.

What is impressive about the freeze-up record for HB is the way that the pattern for each year seems so autonomous relative to the year preceding and succeeding.

Seems as if HB is simply too shallow to "store" anything.

And this is exactly why I questioned how relevant it is to climate change.

[TerryM]

http://dynaweb.cis.ec.gc.ca/IceGraph20/ct?charttype=sdtt&ssnsta=1975&ssnend=2010&histdtsta=1204&histdtend=1204&region=chb14_00&nrmlsta=1971&nrmlend=2001&showwarn=false&plotnormal=false&plotmedian=true&plottrend=true&plotwarn=true&plotscaled=true&cachelife=1&errorpage=errorPage.jsp&format=ct&sizex=760&sizey=600〈=en

Shows a very strong trend for early December ice extent - in spite of the noise.

[The_Global_Warmer]

And this is exactly why I questioned how relevant it is to climate change.

explain your self in detail please?

[dabize]

And this is exactly why I questioned how relevant it is to climate change.

I actually don't know the answer to that.

I was just expressing honest bemusement...........as I really don't have an agenda about this at all.

There are still plenty of reasons to think that it will be useful as a proxy for some manifestation of AGW - but it is admittedly not clear whether this involves latent heat storage and release.

To answer even this last this question better, we should first see if there is a correlation between summer/fall weather with respect to insolation, convection and ambient air temp and the onset time and rate of freezup.

This will involve the construction of a composite parameter that accounts for various heat sources and correlating it with the freeze onset/rate data.

I can't do it, don't know if it has been done. But only when we analyze that will we know enough to do anything more than guess.