Hudson Bay Winter of 2011-2012 Tracking Thread

[The_Global_Warmer]

Every Forecast cycle any cold forecasts slowly get pushed in favor or warmth.

[skierinvermont]

Ice doesn't seem to be forming as early as in the recent past

Huh? No year has any sea ice in Hudson Bay this time of year. The Hudson Bay is 4 million sq km. A few of those years show 5-10 thousand square kilometers because they are picking up on ice from the canadian archipelago.. not Hudson Bay.

IMS defines the 'Huson Bay' region much braoder than the actual Hudson Bay.. it includes some of Foxe basin.

[LithiaWx]

FICN15 CWIS 141500 Ice forecasts for Hudson and Foxe issued by Environment Canada at 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday 14 October 2011 for today tonight and Saturday. The next scheduled forecasts will be issued at 11:00 a.m. Saturday. First ice edge from Nunavut near 6545N 8625W to Southampton Island near to 6550N 8645W. Sea ice north of the ice edge. Second ice edge from Southampton Island near 6405N 8055W to 6540N 8255W to Nunavut near 6620N 8335W. Sea ice west of the ice edge. Third ice edge estimated from Baffin Island near 6520N 7535W to 6730N 7305W to 6710N 7500W to 6705N 7750W to 6820N 7710W to 6800N 7910W to 6925N 8035W to Melville Peninsula near 6745N 8145W. Sea ice north of the ice edge. Resolution Ungava Nottingham. Bergy water. James Bay Belcher Puvirnituq West Foxe Coats Central Arviat Churchill York South-central Hudson South Hudson Rankin Roes Welcome - southern half. Ice free. Roes Welcome - northern half. Open water except 1 tenth of new ice along the shores. Prince Charles. Open water except patches of 9 tenths of new ice along the shores. Igloolik. Open water except patches of 9 tenths of new ice along some shores. East Foxe. Open water except patches of 9 tenths of new ice along the eastern shore. Contact NORDREG Canada via marine radio for routing advice. Arctic ice analysis charts can be copied on VFA Inuvik at 0200 and 1630 UTC and on VFF Iqaluit at 0200, 0700, 1100 and 2200 UTC. End

The 12Z GFS continues to drop the hammer in terms of some really cold air over the Hudson in the mid term to late term. We are talking about -15c to -20c 850 temps with Northwest arctic winds blowing over the Hudson. Whatever heat is stored in those waters is going to be rapidly released when this cold air arrives....

The cold really does not go anywhere, it moderates some (very slightly) then drops back into the deep freeze for most of the bay...

[The_Global_Warmer]

Warm air has been wrapped back into the area from a retrograding SLP. More than that this has given the Bay quite a bit of sunshine for this time of year and the result is more warming.

Once again day 1-10 models retrograde the anomalous cold. But will be colder than the recent endless warmth.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Time for an update:

So Tacoman doesn't call me out saying I am not consistent with showing warm vs cold forecasts

Well the models have decided to finally flip to a Negative NAO.

As of today ice has started to form along the shallow shores where the water doesn't need to cool very deep to get ice formation.

The graph above looks like it serves a larger area than the Hudson proper. But shows the ice growth once again falling below normal.

There is some pretty cold air on the West side of the Hudson right now. Which could be part of the new ice.

I would expect ice to blosson over the NW portion between the 25th and 30th. We will see if a -NAO materializes and the impact on the Bay.

There is still warm water up there that will take time.

[skierinvermont]

A -NAO could be good or bad for the Hudson Bay.. if it is highly west based like last year it actually pushes ridging and atlantic air over the bay which is what prevented freezing until january last year.

If it is a more normal or east based -NAO it would probably help Canada cool down.

But what is really important for cold in Canada is getting a -EPO.

Thus far it's been an absolute torch of a November in that region, and SSTs continue to be record warm. I still think Dec 28 is a good guess though because SSTs can cool rapidly if we get some good cold.

[skierinvermont]

Well Hudson Bay area is starting to fall behind even recent years.

In 2008 and 2007 Foxe basin was frozen and northern hudson bay was frozen.

in 2009 Foxe basin was frozen.

2006 and 2003 were similar to this year.

2005 Foxe was mostly frozen.

2002 Foxe was frozen and nearly half of Hudson as well.

In the 1980s Hudson Bay was on average half frozen, several years over half.

[TerryM]

Canadian Ice Service is forecasting ice coverage of only northern sections and coastal regions through 12/15.

[skierinvermont]

It looks like the next couple weeks will be only slightly to moderately above average, instead of far above average.

[dabize]

Canadian Ice Service is forecasting ice coverage of only northern sections and coastal regions through 12/15.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=CE69E4DD-1

Looks to me like it is finally tuning up for large scale ice formation, with the Southern Foxe Basin freezing over during the past week.

That still could be consistent with the forecast, though.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah the SSTs in the NW half of the Hudson Bay suggest ice growing there the next few days.

I'm thinking Jan 1st to the 5th is a good bet. At the earliest the 28th of December, there is just a lot of warm water left over the SE portion of the Bay.

But if will likely not Be as late as last year. Probably not passed the 10th

[TerryM]

http://www.ec.gc.ca/...En&n=CE69E4DD-1

Looks to me like it is finally tuning up for large scale ice formation, with the Southern Foxe Basin freezing over during the past week.

That still could be consistent with the forecast, though.

Wonderful animation for this thread!

The pull back over the last two days was a little disconcerting, possibly due to high SSTs?

[dabize]

Wonderful animation for this thread!

The pull back over the last two days was a little disconcerting, possibly due to high SSTs?

Nice that it automatically updates.

The failure to progress IS a bit disconcerting, esp as those locations appear to be shallow water areas where rapid freezing might be expected.

Maybe the air temp is having a warm few days?

[The_Global_Warmer]

probably mixing. The ice forming is nilas and is 0=5 cm thick maybe 10 cm....the water below could be warmer adn mixes uip as ice compacts.

We can see on the sst charts that warmer waters appeared on the SW side of the lake.

[turtlehurricane]

Big cold front just swept across Hudson bay, which will help zap heat out of it.

Might explain the ice disappearance too though, since water is being pushed from west to east across the bay vigorously, causing upwelling on the western shore which would help break up the ice, and bring up some warmer temps from below.

[Alpha5]

models have been dropping a big trough over the Hudson Bay in the medium range as a strong ridge moves into the western parts of the US/Canada, should be an earlier freeze compared to last year

[Alpha5]

models have been dropping a big trough over the Hudson Bay in the medium range as a strong ridge moves into the western parts of the US/Canada, should be an earlier freeze compared to last year

[The_Global_Warmer]

I hope it freezes earlier than last year since last year is the record latest around january 21st.

There are years on the sat record already completely frozen over by now. This just shows the increased positive feedback. It has taken quite a while for ice with local temps not absurdly warm.

[dabize]

I hope it freezes earlier than last year since last year is the record latest around january 21st.

There are years on the sat record already completely frozen over by now. This just shows the increased positive feedback. It has taken quite a while for ice with local temps not absurdly warm.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=AE4A459A-1&wsdoc=09D08EC4-ACB2-11E0-A1A9-84F9A6BF0B5B

By now HB is usually over half frozen

Makes you think...

[Alpha5]

I hope it freezes earlier than last year since last year is the record latest around january 21st.

There are years on the sat record already completely frozen over by now. This just shows the increased positive feedback. It has taken quite a while for ice with local temps not absurdly warm.

Agreed, the hudson bay is especially susceptible to this being nearly surrounded by land that can warm more significantly than parts of the ocean can.

That being said, it's no surprise that we set a record last year after the NAO was negative for 20+ months in a row.......

[The_Global_Warmer]

your right there. As skier tried to convince me earlier that it won't go into January again, that was a very anomalous pattern. I am still thinking it won't freeze over completely until the first week of January. But that is still pretty late, but falls much more in line with predictions based on current climate changes.

[dabize]

your right there. As skier tried to convince me earlier that it won't go into January again, that was a very anomalous pattern. I am still thinking it won't freeze over completely until the first week of January. But that is still pretty late, but falls much more in line with predictions based on current climate changes.

Not any better today - still losing ice, even at the western shore

http://www.ec.gc.ca/...En&n=CE69E4DD-1

They must be having the same weather as SNE......

[The_Global_Warmer]

The weather is up and down with cold to warm to cold to warm again with many wind shifts...it is hard to say what this will do to the lake freezing over.

As posted by Skers paper earlier. December 4th is considered present for 75 percent ice coverage.

Right now we are at 10 percent or below.

The decrease in maximum sea-ice volume by 31%

contrasted greatly with the 2.6% change in maximum seaice

extent. The greater impact on sea-ice thickness rather

than extent reveals the strong polar influence that prevents

a large reduction in the ice sheet during winter. It also

reflects the sea-ice thickness sensitivity from water column

preconditioning. These results also demonstrate the relative

protection of the Hudson Bay marine system from large

lateral oceanic heat input compared to the Arctic Ocean,

which underwent an accelerated decline of its ice cover

faster than was anticipated by numerical models (Stroeve

et al. 2007).

This numerical experiment has shown that changes in

sea-surface temperature could exceed the change from air

temperature forcing. The input of thermal energy from

shortwave radiation is greatly increased through the

lengthening of the ice-free season. In the present climate

simulations, the persistence of the ice cover around summer

solstice is sufficient to reflect a large proportion of

incident solar radiation. Solar heat input is therefore

inhibited through a decoupling between the peak of solar

radiative forcing and the highest proportion of low albedo

surface. Sea ice plays a significant role in the absorption

and partitioning of solar radiative energy in the atmosphere,

sea ice, and ocean (Jin et al. 1994). The simulated

warmer climate produces thinner sea ice, but this thinning

trend allows higher input of solar energy (Jin et al. 1994;

Perovich 2005). The increasing absorption of solar energy

through an extended ice-free period and the thinning of sea

ice increase the positive ice–albedo feedback. Maykut and

McPhee (1995) demonstrated that shortwave radiation,

absorbed below the bottom of the pack ice, is the main

energy source in the oceanic heat flux between water and

ice. Therefore, the increase of solar heat input into the

ocean unbalances the fragile thermodynamic equilibrium

and accelerates warming at high latitudes.

We have talked about how snow free ice that is melting gets around or under .50 meters it starts to let in a lot of solar short wave radiation.

The last couple of summers by June 21st the Hudson is only 30-40% ice covered and is pretty thin with low concentration. This is close to an already ice free coverage. This is probably helping aid in early season heat storage compared to the past.

Now by no means is this some absolute thing because we have seen years in the past like 1999 be nearly all the way ice free on June 21st in the Hudson. Which didn't freeze over until January 1st which was much more anomalous then.

Who knows how many cloud vs cloud free days 1999 saw vs 2011. From September 22nd to Present over the Hudson Bay and Surrounding areas 2011 is 3-5c warmer than 1999 was. So we can give 2011 the heat edge to 2011 at the surface for less water cooling.

December of 1999 was 3-6C above normal over the eastern half of the bay. that would be the difference in why 1999 made it to January 1st.

There is still 4-6C water being observed over the Far southern end of the bay at the surface. this is still 3-6C above normal. This tells me the main reason the larger 50 percent or so of the bay that is -1.5C or colder at the surface is struggling with heat right under the surface continually being pushed out not allowing the surface cold layer to get deep enough. Remember the Northern half of the bay has salinity values in the 31-32.5 range.

Either way I Would expect growth to start anytime now, but we are not going to reach the 75% mark by December 4th.

This is another clear display of stored heat in high latitude large water bodies changing the game.

[TerryM]

Belcher Islands forecast for 0C this Saturday - probably not too much freezing in that area.

[TerryM]

Some historic data

[dabize]

Some historic data

This years map doesn't look very englacee to me..........

Surprising it's only 3 weeks behind.... it's near the November 4th average.

It should be extremely instructive to see if a rapid freeze up starts soon and finishes by, say Xmas, or if it's rate is slower than usual due to heat storage a'la Friv.

[TerryM]

Betting against the Friv is usually a losing proposition - haven't seen any others coming close.

The high temperatures forecast for the end of this week in the central region may preclude a sudden freeze up and as Friv points out there is still a lot of warm water sloshing around in the bay. Be interesting to see where we are by the 4th - and by then the Canadian Ice Service should have another 30 day projection.

[Alpha5]

Betting against the Friv is usually a losing proposition - haven't seen any others coming close.

The high temperatures forecast for the end of this week in the central region may preclude a sudden freeze up and as Friv points out there is still a lot of warm water sloshing around in the bay. Be interesting to see where we are by the 4th - and by then the Canadian Ice Service should have another 30 day projection.

Ehh, depending on which model you believe, there may be a significant arctic air mass moving through the bay in the 6-10 day range. For now, I agree, things dont look so good up there, but depending on the evolution of the ridge out west, the bay could be hit with some decent cold that would certainly guarentee an earlier freeze than last year. In fact, dont think we get close to last year if we maintain a +AO. 2010-11 featured massive + heigh anomalies over the DS and parts of northern canada. The telleconnections have partly flipped for this year

[skierinvermont]

It looks like the next 2 weeks, which are key, will be average to below average. Feeling pretty good about end of Dec.

[tacoman25]

It looks like the next 2 weeks, which are key, will be average to below average. Feeling pretty good about end of Dec.

I'm not sure some people on here realize how fast Hudson Bay can freeze over.

I'm also not sure why this is a whole thread in the climate change forum.