Hudson Bay Winter of 2011-2012 Tracking Thread

[skierinvermont]

Never heard of "Chisasibi" but rode the train from Fairbanks to Anchorage....and boy oh boy is that some beautiful country up there!

I spent one year in Southwest Alaska (1972-73)................highest air temp was 72F, lowest air temp was -28F (it was an unusually cold year.) What surprised me most was, even in Southwest Alaska it was all tundra. The difference between our grassy lawns and tundra is night and day. One has to see and walk on tundra to believe/appreciate it.

Yeah it was a very unique landscape... the last 300 miles is a straight shot which transitioned from big tall dense trees to shorter sparser trees with treeless hill tops. Not quite to the tundra.. I think it is a 300-500 more miles to the true tundra from Chisasibi. But you could definitely tell the trees were struggling to grow there in a hostile environment.

[TerryM]

Skier

Unless I misread Joly et al the ice coverage they were predicting in their warmest scenario (2041-2070) when Hudson Bay wouldn't freeze over until Dec 29, has already been surpassed, likewise their breakup date of June 15 may be history.

I'm not postulating an ice free Hudson Bay in the near term, merely a year in which some portion of Hudson ∨ James Bay fails to freeze over completely. I'm not sure that any models not taking 2010-2011 into account would be of much help as last winter certainly fell well outside everyone's predictions.

Cheers

Terry

[skierinvermont]

Skier

Unless I misread Joly et al the ice coverage they were predicting in their warmest scenario (2041-2070) when Hudson Bay wouldn't freeze over until Dec 29, has already been surpassed, likewise their breakup date of June 15 may be history.

I'm not postulating an ice free Hudson Bay in the near term, merely a year in which some portion of Hudson ∨ James Bay fails to freeze over completely. I'm not sure that any models not taking 2010-2011 into account would be of much help as last winter certainly fell well outside everyone's predictions.

Cheers

Terry

Last year was highly anomalous.. probably 3+ standard deviation event. The mean is still late December. We had one of the strongest west based -NAOs in history last Dec and early Jan. That's weather.. not climate. That amount of persistent blocking over Baffin Island in December/early Jan is probably a 1 in 100+ year event.

I think you did misread the paper I posted... they are saying that by 2041-2070 Hudson Bay won't freeze 100% until late January. That is 1 month later than the present average, and 7 weeks later than the 1980s average. So in terms of average 100% freeze date, I don't think you will see a frequent failure to freeze until 2080-2100. You could probably start to see a year or two where it doesn't freeze 100% in the 2060s or 2070s. These are of course rough estimates but I don't think we will see Hudson Bay fail to freeze any time in the next 30-40 years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

SSTs went up.

So far this fall the Hudson area has not seen crazy warmth just yet. Maybe it won't. But it is kinda wild that SSTS are still so far above normal.

[TerryM]

Skier

In Table 1, page 9 they show the present (2009) median freeze up date as December 4, then add 25 days in their warmer climate model.

I don't see how this has them forecasting a freeze up date in late January in 2040-2070.

We have already experienced one (anomalous) year in which freeze up did not occur until late January. I would expect that substantially less ice volume, and the reduced energy needed to effect melt, will usher in a period of earlier than median melts as well as later than median freeze up dates.

Weather may dominate in the short term, but I can see no reason for the system to revert to the patterns experienced prior to 2010.

Hoping I'm Wrong

Terry

[LithiaWx]

Skier

In Table 1, page 9 they show the present (2009) median freeze up date as December 4, then add 25 days in their warmer climate model.

I don't see how this has them forecasting a freeze up date in late January in 2040-2070.

We have already experienced one (anomalous) year in which freeze up did not occur until late January. I would expect that substantially less ice volume, and the reduced energy needed to effect melt, will usher in a period of earlier than median melts as well as later than median freeze up dates.

Weather may dominate in the short term, but I can see no reason for the system to revert to the patterns experienced prior to 2010.

Hoping I'm Wrong

Terry

Well at least we can prove you wrong in a few short months....

I think that the abnormally slow freeze the last two years is due to the deep and extended Greenland blocks that have been present. Weather patterns such as this will have a much more enormous impact than above average SST's....

I'm going with 12/17-12/24

[Sunny and Warm]

Well at least we can prove you wrong in a few short months....

Agree. The Greenland blocks have dispersed the cold anomalously far south the last two winters, which while making the mid latitudes cold and snowy, has made parts of the arctic warmer than usual. Akin to leaving the icebox open at home. The hudson freeze over to me was a case in point of that. Can't freeze ice cubes in your freezer easily if the door is ajar.

[skierinvermont]

Skier

In Table 1, page 9 they show the present (2009) median freeze up date as December 4, then add 25 days in their warmer climate model.

I don't see how this has them forecasting a freeze up date in late January in 2040-2070.

We have already experienced one (anomalous) year in which freeze up did not occur until late January. I would expect that substantially less ice volume, and the reduced energy needed to effect melt, will usher in a period of earlier than median melts as well as later than median freeze up dates.

Weather may dominate in the short term, but I can see no reason for the system to revert to the patterns experienced prior to 2010.

Hoping I'm Wrong

Terry

That's because they appear to define the 'freeze-up date' as ~75% ice cover not 100% cover which is what we were talking about initially.

Which is why they say that the present average freeze up date is Dec 4. When clearly the present average is Dec 20-25 if we are talking about 100% cover, as we were initially.

If we are talking about 100% freeze up date, as we were initially, then their graph (Fig 11) shows 100% freeze up in 2040-2070 will be on average late January. Which seems like a reasonable prediction to me, given the present date of average freeze in late December.

I think many people here predicting January freeze dates are going to be dead wrong in a couple months. The average is still Dec 20-25 unless we get a 3+ SD block over baffin island.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well at least we can prove you wrong in a few short months....

MariettaWx, on 04 October 2011 - 02:27 PM, said:

I think that the abnormally slow freeze the last two years is due to the deep and extended Greenland blocks that have been present. Weather patterns such as this will have a much more enormous impact than above average SST's....

I'm going with 12/17-12/24

October 7th SSTs:

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They might have a major impact. But the current weather pattern is allowing the water to stay warm or cool slowly.

it is October 7th and the southern shore has 5-10C SST anomalies which are records for this time of year. We have a lot of data going back about the Hudson and currently we have record warm SSTs there. Not to mention about 3/4ths of the bay is above normal and 1//3rd is near record warmth or above record warmth. That is pretty big deal.

Your Medium date is December 20th. Between now and then average temps won't cut it. The Hudson will need at least 2 weeks of way below average temps or a longer period of below average temps...or a constant N or NE flow so colder water is pushed in..even then..the lake could have meters deep in places of very warm water.

Since you are so sure of yourself, even with all of the data saying your dead wrong...please come back here when it isn't frozen over to apologize to Terry.

Whether you are right are wrong I would love to see your analysis as of right now showing us why you have come to this conclusion. Just so we can have a real discussion instead of you running away.

So far Fall hasn't been to warm on the Hudson...but the region once again is experiencing very warm anomalies.

Good Luck, personally I hope you are right.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Agree. The Greenland blocks have dispersed the cold anomalously far south the last two winters, which while making the mid latitudes cold and snowy, has made parts of the arctic warmer than usual. Akin to leaving the icebox open at home. The hudson freeze over to me was a case in point of that. Can't freeze ice cubes in your freezer easily if the door is ajar.

Isn't the Greenland block from a Negative AO?

Shouldn't this mean areas of SLP with colder are are around more since late August. One would expect the Hudson not to have so much warm water when the door is not ajar.

[skierinvermont]

I think Marrietta's argument is pretty clear.. "weather is more important than SSTs"

For the most part, I agree. Though of course SSTs will have some impact, which is why I guessed slightly later than average, but the correlation is very weak.

I'm not sure why marrietta is guessing average or even slightly before average, given the SSTs though. You've got to give them some weight I think.

[skierinvermont]

Isn't the Greenland block from a Negative AO?

Shouldn't this mean areas of SLP with colder are are around more since late August. One would expect the Hudson not to have so much warm water when the door is not ajar.

He said the greenland block the last two winters, not this summer. Also it's the NAO not the AO that is a better measure. In particular a west based -NAO. The best thing to do is to look at the pattern last fall/winter.. which was absurd.

[The_Global_Warmer]

He said the greenland block the last two winters, not this summer. Also it's the NAO not the AO that is a better measure. In particular a west based -NAO. The best thing to do is to look at the pattern last fall/winter.. which was absurd.

Right...I understand. My point is..as of now with this:

I know that is pretty vague...we still have record warm water in the Southern Hudson. The Canadian Archipelago during the late 70s and most of the 80s was completely ice covered all year..and was ice covered by October 7th most years. If not very very close. Right now outside of the areas next to the arctic basin where ice was pushed for weeks into the passages, it's still almost completely ice free..for instnace the Perry has ice in it..but it's so thin it doesn't show up on Modis at all or very very faint. The rest is still ice free..

Ice is finally forming in the main passage..this happened when 850s tanked under -10C for a week with most of that time around -12 to -16C. after days of this ice finally started to form. It took 850s to go back up to 0C to -7C for 2-3 three days to halt all of that. Modis images show us this. That the new ice production stopped and the new ice began to melt/compact.

This tells me there is some depth to the warm water.

For Gods sakes it's October 7th and there is almost no ice on the NA side. 20 years ago the Hudson would freeze over completely between what December 10th and 25th most years?

the new SST anomaly maps are out:

I am not saying we are looking at another 2011 for sure. And I agree with you that local weather matters greatly. But again the CA Islands are "closer to normal SST wise" Well we just got that report that the Laptev has widespread areas of 3C water up to 10 meters down. That is NUTS. No wonder the cold air is coolng the surface in the CA to ice growth levels but hardly any ice has grown. I know the Hudson has less salinity, but it's not as much as it used to be.

Well I hope this season is neutral..I feel very confident that anything less than below normal in the region during the freeze period will result in a Jan 1st at the earliest freeze over.

If we get above average to well above average Jan 15th and if we see anything close to what we have seen recently then probably around Feb 1st. Which creates another possible issue because the Sun will be getting stronger then.

Anyways... I am just pointing out when it's October 7th and the Hudson has +10C anomalies. where ice used to form early because of low salinity during a cold snap I guess. But apparently it did.

That is pretty extreme itself.

[TerryM]

Skier

They were apparently referencing a 1986 paper by Markham for their "present" freeze up date of December 4 - they then specifically add 25 days to this as their warmer climate prediction. The graph (fig 11) is for " the whole Hudson Bay domain" and in fact shows their predicted ice coverage never reaching present levels.

Let's agree to disagree about whatever this paper is attempting to postulate. If Hudson Bay can recover to Markham's 1986 levels I would be overjoyed, and astonished. If it recovers to pre 2010 levels, simply overjoyed.

Cheers

Terry

[skierinvermont]

Skier

They were apparently referencing a 1986 paper by Markham for their "present" freeze up date of December 4 - they then specifically add 25 days to this as their warmer climate prediction. The graph (fig 11) is for " the whole Hudson Bay domain" and in fact shows their predicted ice coverage never reaching present levels.

Let's agree to disagree about whatever this paper is attempting to postulate. If Hudson Bay can recover to Markham's 1986 levels I would be overjoyed, and astonished. If it recovers to pre 2010 levels, simply overjoyed.

Cheers

Terry

Well you can disagree if you want but the graphic they provide is pretty clear. near 100% sea ice cover isn't achieved until late December on average at present, and late January in the warm scenario. They say it freezes by Dec 4 because they are defining the freeze date as only 2/3s frozen. Here is the graph. It's pretty clear. At present Hudson Bay is only 60-70% frozen according to the graph by Dec 4.

They also clearly define the "present" climate scenario as a sea ice simulation driven by 2001-2005 atmospheric radiative forcing. Not the 1980s.

[The_Global_Warmer]

well this is subjective...I do not have the records at my disposal. But if I had to guess just going back to 2002-2010 on December 4th area coverage:

2010: 15-25%

2009: 15-25%

2008: 25-30%

2007: 55-65%

2006: 45-60%

2005: 35-50%

2004: 70-85%

2003: 30-40%

2002: 80-90%

1998 was very low as well. So it wasn't unheard of before then.. However since 2005 there hasn't been a December 4th with a healthy sheet of ice going in the Hudson.

Not that one day really matters..I would bet 2011 will be between 15-30%. If the Weather is really warm in November possibly under 10%. But that is in line with there warmer scenario...when is that supposed to take place?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Clearly it's long range and not that reliable...but would definitely keep the SSTs are record levels threw October.

[ORH_wxman]

Its definitely going to stay warm up there for the foreseeable future. But the November/early December pattern will probably be the primary variable in when the ice freezes up there.

Novembers have been notoriously warm in the last decade across the whole CONUS and into the Hudson Bay region compared to the much tamer December anomalies.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Its definitely going to stay warm up there for the foreseeable future. But the November/early December pattern will probably be the primary variable in when the ice freezes up there.

Novembers have been notoriously warm in the last decade across the whole CONUS and into the Hudson Bay region compared to the much tamer December anomalies.

Do you think this is driven by the incoming ice and cold pool or more by upper level patterns or even larger scale things?

[skierinvermont]

well this is subjective...I do not have the records at my disposal. But if I had to guess just going back to 2002-2010 on December 4th area coverage:

2010: 15-25%

2009: 15-25%

2008: 25-30%

2007: 55-65%

2006: 45-60%

2005: 35-50%

2004: 70-85%

2003: 30-40%

2002: 80-90%

1998 was very low as well. So it wasn't unheard of before then.. However since 2005 there hasn't been a December 4th with a healthy sheet of ice going in the Hudson.

Not that one day really matters..I would bet 2011 will be between 15-30%. If the Weather is really warm in November possibly under 10%. But that is in line with there warmer scenario...when is that supposed to take place?

Yes it looks like you're correct about them overestimating the amount of ice on Dec 4. But because the freeze up is so rapid that time of year, I'd say they were only off by 3 days.

Their model predicts 2/3s ice coverage Dec 4. My guess is in reality 2000-2010 it took until Dec 7 to get 2/3s coverage. Do what you just did for Dec 7. My guess is that the average will be 60-70%.

In which case the model is only off by 3 days.

[ORH_wxman]

Do you think this is driven by the incoming ice and cold pool or more by upper level patterns or even larger scale things?

I think it is somewhat fluky. I do think perhaps the decline of sea ice may have something to do with it, but not nearly as much as the anomaly suggests which means random variance to me...the CONUS departures shouldn't be tied to sea ice that much...its just been a warm period in that month over the last decade. The anomalies in Asia have certainly been less. In areas right around the sea ice adjacent to the arctic ocean have been darn warm which makes sense via latent heat release, but just south of that has been pretty tame in Asia.

When Novembers come back to the pack a little, I think we'll see some earlier freezes. They will keep getting later on average as long as we are warming, but I do think we may have over shot the mark a little in the last decade and it wouldn't surprise me if we come back a little. As for this year, the warm pattern doesn't give much confidence of any early freeze up there. We'd need to see a very cold November pattern develop to say it will freeze earlier...but not sure that will happen.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Today there has been reported water temps along the Western shore between 10-12C and around 13-14C in the southern part.

Cooler air moves in for a day and half tomorrow..and then a light and variable warm flow returns. With temps well above normal in the area for the foreseeable future....a bit cooler than the low 70s they saw on the SW side yesterday.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Cool anomalies expand slightly in the north.

the all time record warm ones in the south slightly expand as well.

[LithiaWx]

The Hudson is freezing over on the edges even in the far southern part of the bay.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Hudson is freezing over on the edges even in the far southern part of the bay.

No it's not.

The water there is 10-14C today along the coast. The coldest water in the bay is 2-4C in the NE and that is in decent salinity.

You might want to to look at a surface map or the countless SST maps in this thread.

And never call anyone helpless again after your post.

You have access to all the sst maps. But you posted this. I hope you learn some humility after this. I would love to see how ice is forming on 50-55F water. That would be Devine.

[skierinvermont]

that is an error. the water temps are like 10C and the 850s are above freezing. No where close to freezing anywhere near hudson bay. those maps are generated by an algorithm which frequently produces errors along coastlines.

[LithiaWx]

that is an error. the water temps are like 10C and the 850s are above freezing. No where close to freezing anywhere near hudson bay. those maps are generated by an algorithm which frequently produces errors along coastlines.

I knew it was an error but had no idea why it was showing it, I did not know that the coastline was the cause of the error, so I did learn something there.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I knew it was an error but had no idea why it was showing it, I did not know that the coastline was the cause of the error, so I did learn something there.

So why did you post it claiming Ice was forming in the Hudson?

[TerryM]

Ice doesn't seem to be forming as early as in the recent past

[The_Global_Warmer]

Water temps have cooled a bit. but the Northern Side is higher salinity:

Salinity in the Northern Part of the bay is pretty high. that would typically require a -1.8C collumn. Where the lower salinity is the water is record warm.

Forecast:

Winds will come from the east or ESE so some decently warm water will be pulled in from the East.