usedtobe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Mostly good news as a main water source for SFL. Screw the gator wrestling few. j/k October is turning into a bonanza. The 18Z looks a little less bullish but still is pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 gfs looks to take a broad low north of tampa then onto jax...but could it be tropical? either way looks stormy on tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 gfs looks to take a broad low north of tampa then onto jax...but could it be tropical? either way looks stormy on tues. Last night's run gave heavy rain to pretty much the entire peninsula. That makes me happy as it will get water into Lake Okeechobee before the dry season. Usually southern Florida is pretty dry during winter during ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Last night's run gave heavy rain to pretty much the entire peninsula. That makes me happy as it will get water into Lake Okeechobee before the dry season. Usually southern Florida is pretty dry during winter during ninas. Last winter was bone dry. It started with Nicole lol and did not break really until mid and late June. There were many municipalities contemplating banning fireworks on the fourth. Being a legal state, that would have went over well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Last winter was bone dry. It started with Nicole lol and did not break really until mid and late June. There were many municipalities contemplating banning fireworks on the fourth. Being a legal state, that would have went over well. I know, the lake was really low by mid April. Lots of boats needed prop work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Another mod to heavy band moving into Dade right now. Broward just getting pounded all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Last night's 00Z sounding from Key West really exhibits just how rich this tropical moisture is. With 2.58" of precipitable water, and a mid level RH of 101%, it doesn't take a whole lot of vertical velocity to squeeze out a lot of precip. Case in point, Key West has measured 7.79" of rain in the last 24 h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Another mod to heavy band moving into Dade right now. Broward just getting pounded all day! It's been raining for the past 24-36 hours here. Nothing too heavy, just a steady light/mod rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Hey Ice, Do you think we will get any action down here in the next few days? I know NOAA has a cherry south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Just updated my 15Z SmartCast, showing additional 1.3" to 2.1" of rainfall across the FL region. Areas around KOPF showing the heaviest rain accumulation of 2.09" for the next 6 hours. Full analysis uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Hey Ice, Do you think we will get any action down here in the next few days? I know NOAA has a cherry south of us. It depends on what you mean by action. I think if anything tropical, or subtropical forms in the Gulf, it would make landfall too far NW (panhandle or big bend region) to have much of an effect on us. That said, Miami radar VWP profiles indicating lots of deep-layer veering, and cells are beginning to become increasingly isolated south of the keys. The trough digging south tomorrow should only aid in forcing upward motion and increasing severe chances further north. I wouldn't put it out of the question that we see a tornado or two over south FL tonight, with the greatest risk shifting northward to include all of FL tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Woke up today expecting to be inundated with rain. So far as of 1PM nothing even remotely close to Ocala. This could be the first time ever that a 100% chance yields nothing. By 100% I mean sunrise to sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND WRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181615Z - 181745Z A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. IN RESPONSE...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND POSSIBLE PARTS OF CNTRL FL IN THE 17Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE WRN COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW...A WELL-DEFINED 35 TO 45 KT JET NEAR 850 MB WILL MOVE INTO SRN FL RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2.50 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD BASES AS A DEVELOPING SQUALL-LINE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE JET MAX WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE AND EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ITSELF WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL FL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH BOWING-SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 10/18/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Essentially the same geographic locations as the MD, so won't bother posting the image. One cell in particular southwest of Key West has been rotating all afternoon URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT MEYERS FLORIDA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FL WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH THETA-E VALUES AND MODERATE CAPE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Woke up today expecting to be inundated with rain. So far as of 1PM nothing even remotely close to Ocala. This could be the first time ever that a 100% chance yields nothing. By 100% I mean sunrise to sunset. I was at 70% and it rained all day. Go figure. NOW I am up to 80% lol That squall line coming onshore in the SW has its eyes on MBY. Along with the tornado watch till 10PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I was at 70% and it rained all day. Go figure. NOW I am up to 80% lol That squall line coming onshore in the SW has its eyes on MBY. Along with the tornado watch till 10PM. Good for you. Glad most folks got something out of this. Looks like that convection moving towards the lake may be pretty intense. Quite jealous up here. Well it's sunset so its official. A 100% rain chance was a bust with not a drop. There is some lame convection to my west so I guess .10 isn't out of the question but that will be later. Kind of sucks because the chamber of commerce weather kicks in tomorrow afternoon. 72 and sunny for the next week. Booo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Dangerous looking storm to the west of Miami with a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bic Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Current radar image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 That cell has a mean looking hook on it now...wasn't sure if it was going to be organized at first but it's going good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Watch out in West Miami, North Miami and Ft. Lauderdale! The couplet has weakened but if that thing could cycle! 00Z sounding indicates 444 m2/s2 sfc-1 km helicity. Looks like new cells are beginning to fire over the far southern tip of the peninsula. Any cell that can maintain an updraft in this environment has the potential to produce a tornado. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Storm is just to my south now but looks like it will pass just to the west of me. Impressive looking on radar right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Storm is just to my south now but looks like it will pass just to the west of me. Impressive looking on radar right now. A crazy last three hours and full day on the Treasure Coast! Tornado warnings just to my north and west by mere miles, a flat out DELUGE for three hours, and wind gusts up to 45 knots that capped off a day that saw steady light to moderate rain since day break. October IMBY is already approaching freakish territory and all of it without the help of a named tropical system. Edit ... tornado watch extended for MBY until 6 AM. More rolling in from SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Good for you. Glad most folks got something out of this. Looks like that convection moving towards the lake may be pretty intense. Quite jealous up here. Well it's sunset so its official. A 100% rain chance was a bust with not a drop. There is some lame convection to my west so I guess .10 isn't out of the question but that will be later. Kind of sucks because the chamber of commerce weather kicks in tomorrow afternoon. 72 and sunny for the next week. Booo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 A few reports of tornado damage this evening.... 2325 LAKE PORT GLADES FL 26988113 LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED MINOR DAMAGE TO 40 HOMES IN LAKEPORT. WEATHER EVENT IS PRELIMINARY, BASED ON RADAR DATA, PENDING STORM SURVEY. (MFL) 0130 3 NNW INDRIO INDIAN RIVER FL 27568037 22ND PLACE SE IN VERO BEACH JUST EAST OF US1. COUNTY EM REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE, ROOF REMOVED.(MLB) 0207 SAWGRASS MILLS MALL BROWARD FL 26158032 BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED SEVERAL REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN SUNRISE NEAR THE SAWGRASS MILLS MALL. ROOFS OFF HOMES WITH 2 PEOPLE REPORTEDLY TRAPPED IN DAMAGED (MFL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Cells off the SW coast may end up being trouble...all have kidney bean shapes and beginning to rotate in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Good for you. Glad most folks got something out of this. Looks like that convection moving towards the lake may be pretty intense. Quite jealous up here. Well it's sunset so its official. A 100% rain chance was a bust with not a drop. There is some lame convection to my west so I guess .10 isn't out of the question but that will be later. Kind of sucks because the chamber of commerce weather kicks in tomorrow afternoon. 72 and sunny for the next week. Booo!! very strange...watched radar all day [10/18] because of already[last week] washed out roads in polk county...seems there was something stopping the heavier rain from going north of a east-west line from vero to st.pete.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 My portion of the storm came later in the evening and then another round about 4AM that was pretty intense. It was accompanied by a T warning but I haven't heard about any damage. Just like a week ago very heavy rain and wind although not much lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Tornado Confirmed in Lakeport in Glades County, Rated EF-0 Tornado Confirmed in the Sunrise/Plantation Area, Rated EF-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I'll be in Homestead 10/29-11/1. How about you Florida folks cook me up something tropical for my arrival! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Tornado Confirmed in Lakeport in Glades County, Rated EF-0 Tornado Confirmed in the Sunrise/Plantation Area, Rated EF-2 It's pretty impressive that the Sunrise tornado was rated EF2. The couplet was much stronger out over the Everglades, so its a good thing it didn't hit anything or we could have been hearing about EF3/4 damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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