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Oct-Dec Florida Thread


MJW155

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I would imagine someone has to be closing in on 10" in Brevard County at this time. We are now up over 4" IMBY.

I'm wondering if we can make a run at the October 24hr rainfall record at MCO. The record stands at 5.84 and unofficially I saw they were already over 3.50.

I am over 5 inches since the onset of this mess. MBY got the advanced amounts starting yesterday. Average October totals for my area are under 2 inches. So ...... big time score and potentially much more to come into Monday.

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The rain held off for the wedding this afternoon on the west coast!!! Sarasota to be exact. It was REALLY windy though. Gustiest winds I've experienced in quite sometime. Within the last hour alone there was a gust of 35 mph! Here's hoping something fun develops while I'm on vacation here thumbsupsmileyanim.gif The light rain started about an hour ago. Hoping for at least an inch or more for my parents lawn!

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6.16 offiicially at MCO on Saturday. Both a new daily record and I am all but certain an October record (i believe the record was 5.84).

High yesterday was only 71. I think this may be a new record low maximum. Waiting on the record reports from MLB to confirm.

Rain has started this morning and some heavy bands are about to start making their way thru. The pool is getting close to be needing to be drained a second time.

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Got nailed on Friday night here in Coral Gables. A nice microburst came through in our neighborhood, knocking down a 6"+ tree limb in front of our apartment. Fortunately, it missed my car, barely. A truck on the next block wasn't so lucky, as a big palm trunk blew over. The damage diameter was only about 10 blocks.

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The wind here is pretty gusty... looks like the low pressure center will cross the coast just a hair to my north... I think this is edging out Irene's outer rainbands as the most interesting tropical weather this summer IMBY (sad, I know). There's also quite a bit of lightning in that strong band off shore... I'm excited.

post-207-0-26675300-1318203477.png

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The wind here is pretty gusty... looks like the low pressure center will cross the coast just a hair to my north... I think this is edging out Irene's outer rainbands as the most interesting tropical weather this summer IMBY (sad, I know). There's also quite a bit of lightning in that strong band off shore... I'm excited. post-207-0-26675300-1318203477.png

I just got back in from watching the light show from my driveway. I am in Port Saint Lucie not too far from this awesomeness. I have a bright moon above me but constant and vivid lightening just to the north off shore. That low is wrapping up nicely .....

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Pressures are sig. lower than were progged by all model runs except, interestingly enough, those THU/FRI GFS runs I posted showing a pretty well organized low moving NNW not far from where the low is now. The lowest pressure on those THU/FRI runs was 1,003 mb (and 1,000 mb on a Wed. run as it headed further NNW toward GA). The lowest is now down at least as low as 1,003 mb and is moving either NW or NNW! It will be interesting to see how this evolves. At the very least, it appears to me that the GFS, which was mostly on its own with its E of FL pretty well organized sfc low, is suddenly looking like a guru!!

Check out the conditions at a buoy at 28.5 N, 80.2 W, which is ~50 miles E of Cape Canaveral **note the 3.4 mb/0.10" fall in pressure during just the last hour!** Also, note the 4 F temp. rise from 73 F to 77 F. Also, note the SST of 82 F there...plenty warm enough to allow for tropical development:

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL

AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)

6 PM 28.5N 80.2W 74 82 10/ 31/ 39 1008.6F 20/12 16/12

7 PM 28.5N 80.2W 73 82 10/ 39/ 47 1006.8F 19/11 15/11

8 PM 28.5N 80.2W 77 82 20/ 41/ 54 1003.4F 22/11 18/11

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3:00 this morning when I left for work it was pretty cool. The low passed pretty close to the house. Bottomed out 1002MB. Crazy lightning, wind, and rain. My anemometer only recorded a gust of 18 mostly cause I live in the woods. However when I got on the road it was blowing pretty good. Total rain for the storm was 3.65.

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This is what Jville has to say about it.

LONG TERM...TUE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THECONUS EAST COAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOWPRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN REGION DRIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND OVER THEGULF OF MEXICO. UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK SW AS UPPER TROUGHINGAPPROACHES THE EAST COAST LATE TUE WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT.MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE SFC LOW TRACKING NNE ALONG THE COLD FRONTACROSS THE CENTRAL GOMEX AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TUES INTOWED. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH ADVERTISES AWARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND POSITIONING ACROSS SE GA TUEAFTN/EVENING... THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THEFORECAST AREA EARLY WED MORNING. THUS THE PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERESTORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...LOOKS TO BE TUE AFTNTHROUGH EARLY WED. THU AND FRI COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ASHIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH NNW FLOWLOCALLY. TEMPS WILL FALL FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S TUE/WED TO HIGHS INTHE 70S THU & FRI. MINS WILL FALL AS WELL FROM THE MID/LOW 60S TUEAND WED...INTO THE 50S THU & FRI FOLLOWING FROPA.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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This is what Jville has to say about it.

LONG TERM...TUE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THECONUS EAST COAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOWPRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN REGION DRIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND OVER THEGULF OF MEXICO. UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK SW AS UPPER TROUGHINGAPPROACHES THE EAST COAST LATE TUE WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT.MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE SFC LOW TRACKING NNE ALONG THE COLD FRONTACROSS THE CENTRAL GOMEX AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TUES INTOWED. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH ADVERTISES AWARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND POSITIONING ACROSS SE GA TUEAFTN/EVENING... THEN THE SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THEFORECAST AREA EARLY WED MORNING. THUS THE PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERESTORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...LOOKS TO BE TUE AFTNTHROUGH EARLY WED. THU AND FRI COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ASHIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH NNW FLOWLOCALLY. TEMPS WILL FALL FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S TUE/WED TO HIGHS INTHE 70S THU & FRI. MINS WILL FALL AS WELL FROM THE MID/LOW 60S TUEAND WED...INTO THE 50S THU & FRI FOLLOWING FROPA.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

October is proving to be a jackpot for many. After another inch last night I am at 11 inches for the month. 9 inches above normal!

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the ponds are full, the sweating has slowed, some seeds to be planted, most shutters are off,and best of all,there is no idiot on t v talking about some depression that might form and might head this way,maybe........but the bad news is that the snowbirds are beginning to show...

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the ponds are full, the sweating has slowed, some seeds to be planted, most shutters are off,and best of all,there is no idiot on t v talking about some depression that might form and might head this way,maybe........but the bad news is that the snowbirds are beginning to show...

they are early. At least they will fill up the restaurants and buy some ****. Nobody else is lol

Oh, and don't give up on ol Santa Tropics too soon.

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the ponds are full, the sweating has slowed, some seeds to be planted, most shutters are off,and best of all,there is no idiot on t v talking about some depression that might form and might head this way,maybe........but the bad news is that the snowbirds are beginning to show...

When I get old I am going up north and start driving bad to piss off them snow birds . And I'll keep saying "thats how we do it Flourida".

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The GFS really wets up Florida with another big rainfall event. Looks like Okeechobee will easily top 12 feet and if the GFS is correct probably also will top 13. That's good news for the lake and the people who make a living on the lake.

Mostly good news as a main water source for SFL. Screw the gator wrestling few.

j/k

October is turning into a bonanza.

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