0z Model Guidance 12/9

[earthlight]

I'm viewing the 500H height change maps since the 12z run, and it has grown stronger with the clipper feature--but in general it is just really digging in the H5 trough over the southeast much, much more...by like 35+ dm in heights. That's a huge trend even though it might not show up on the surface at the moment.

[eduggs]

Well we haven't had any masturbatory runs. But I like that we're getting a surface low down into the mid-atlantic and the Euro and even GGEM offer some interesting high amplitude solutions that could bring some fun if we catch a few breaks.

This is so much better to track than a solitary monster primary over Buffalo (which might still happen).

[SnowGoose69]

I'm viewing the 500H height change maps since the 12z run, and it has grown stronger with the clipper feature--but in general it is just really digging in the H5 trough over the southeast much, much more...by like 35+ dm in heights. That's a huge trend even though it might not show up on the surface at the moment.

There can often be a lag between the two...but its also possible that the solution is just garbage as well.

[eduggs]

I'm viewing the 500H height change maps since the 12z run, and it has grown stronger with the clipper feature--but in general it is just really digging in the H5 trough over the southeast much, much more...by like 35+ dm in heights. That's a huge trend even though it might not show up on the surface at the moment.

Exactly the first thing I noticed. That's a big change and more exciting even if the result is still boring. As far as I've seen, none of the 0z runs are truly dreadful.

[earthlight]

Exactly the first thing I noticed. That's a big change and more exciting even if the result is still boring. As far as I've seen, none of the 0z runs are truly dreadful.

I knew it was trouble as soon as I saw the lag in the trough going negatively tilted near the Mississippi River. The 18z GFS delayed that to a great extent...and the 00z GFS does as well. The Euro still has the strong primary and the higher heights, which the GFS does not, but it definitely trended towards a slower and flatter initial shortwave as well as a later phase and more positively tilted trough at that longitude. We still have plenty of time to go until this feature gets into mainland data ingestion, too.

[earthlight]

There can often be a lag between the two...but its also possible that the solution is just garbage as well.

It just seems like it's caught in between somewhere. Who knows, we're still def. in the medium range with this system and the solutions have certainly changed dramatically the past 24 hours. One thing is for sure, it looks nothing like the 00z GFS aloft.

[eduggs]

I knew it was trouble as soon as I saw the lag in the trough going negatively tilted near the Mississippi River. The 18z GFS delayed that to a great extent...and the 00z GFS does as well. The Euro still has the strong primary and the higher heights, which the GFS does not, but it definitely trended towards a slower and flatter initial shortwave as well as a later phase and more positively tilted trough at that longitude. We still have plenty of time to go until this feature gets into mainland data ingestion, too.

Whatever you picked up on with the 18z GFS seems to have influenced the evolution of several model runs tonight.

[tombo82685]

the euro shows potential i cant tell cause its 6hr increments, but a change to snow maybe accum some from dc-phl, esp dc...western and northern burbs of phl should do well on the changeover

[earthlight]

Whatever you picked up on with the 18z GFS seems to have influenced the evolution of several model runs tonight.

I think it has to be a combination of both the lower heights over the East a result of a shortwave ejecting northeast from the trough prior to the major amplification (this feature is prevalent moreso on the GFS than the Euro)....but that feature stems from the real issue which is that the shortwave itself as it enters the Pac NW is coming in a whole lot flatter and a bit slower than guidance had been showing the past two days prior to this. I remember when I was watching the 18z GFS, I noted to myself how it was slower with the energy as it was coming into the NW states..and as it went over the Rockies the entire trough was more broad. The slower negative tilt and more broad trough on some models is probably owing to this. The Polar Vortex definitely is less involved as well and that is certainly helping.

[SnowGoose69]

Whatever you picked up on with the 18z GFS seems to have influenced the evolution of several model runs tonight.

It may just be the middle ground of the 2 solutions I said were possible about 3-4 days ago....the storm would either cut inland due to lack of a 50/50 low and -NAO or go out to sea because the western ridge was not strong enough for any major digging or amplification downstream...it may be that the fact we still don't have a true classic amplified ridge out there at 72-96 hours that this system is simply unable to dig enough to get a true lakes cutter but at the same time can amplify just enough to get enough of a low pressure center to set in motion your classic coastal transfer....this might be a needle threading situation to get the solution the 00Z GFS shows and the other models may be trying to as well.

[eduggs]

Looking back at the Ukie, at 72hrs it doesn't look that far off from the Euro at surface and h5. The surface/mid level centers are slightly further south with a more sharper trof. I'd be curious to see where the extended takes things from there. Could be another deep trof in the southeast.

[Snowlover11]

Is it still advertising the very cold air like it has been stating?

[earthlight]

Big time energy in the southwest at 192 hours and a huge, huge confluent block just north of New England.

[earthlight]

Unbelievable greenland ridge at 198 as well

[earthlight]

Lol, it's still trying to cut it inland at 210 hrs

[earthlight]

Man...we have 528 heights sitting directly over the 50/50 position at 210 hours..but it's shifting east and the surface low is going to try and cut inland. Kinda funny if you ask me.

[tombo82685]

jeez i dont even know why i do the euro pbp in that gen forum...there is more ppl in hear reading than in the gen forum

[Neblizzard]

Man...we have 528 heights sitting directly over the 50/50 position at 210 hours..but it's shifting east and the surface low is going to try and cut inland. Kinda funny if you ask me.

Got a funny feeling this is going to be the storm track for the forseeable future until the pacific pattern completely reverses....

[SnowGoose69]

Man...we have 528 heights sitting directly over the 50/50 position at 210 hours..but it's shifting east and the surface low is going to try and cut inland. Kinda funny if you ask me.

The Euro loves driving storms inland in the long range during classic East Coast winter storm setups...its usually not until inside 180 that it catches on.

[tombo82685]

i dont get it either john, we have a huge block and 50/50 low, alebit not overpowering, but this is going right into the lakes, but it will prob 2ndry but to late for us.

[tombo82685]

get a load of this...baffin island has higher hgts than miami lol

[tombo82685]

hr 234 basically everyone east of the miss river is above freezing...the ridge on the east coast connects with the blocking over canada

[earthlight]

Looks like a cold front coming by 240 hours as the surface low wrapped up over the Central US. Our heights went from 516dm to 558dm...with a block in the 50/50 position and a big greenland ridge. Pacific is awful. I don't know if I should laugh or cry

[mattinpa]

Looks like a cold front coming by 240 hours as the surface low wrapped up over the Central US. Our heights went from 516dm to 558dm...with a block in the 50/50 position and a big greenland ridge. Pacific is awful. I don't know if I should laugh or cry

It's far out enough that you can laugh, I guess.

[tmagan]

i dont get it either john, we have a huge block and 50/50 low, alebit not overpowering, but this is going right into the lakes, but it will prob 2ndry but to late for us.

Remember, teleconnections at the end of the day don't always dictate exact storm track.

[earthlight]

i dont get it either john, we have a huge block and 50/50 low, alebit not overpowering, but this is going right into the lakes, but it will prob 2ndry but to late for us.

Look at the NHEM maps..it's the southeast ridge and the lack of a more favorable Pacific. That being said, it's pretty funny I think.

[tombo82685]

Look at the NHEM maps..it's the southeast ridge and the lack of a more favorable Pacific. That being said, it's pretty funny I think.

the run or our luck? or both lol

[Neblizzard]

Look at the NHEM maps..it's the southeast ridge and the lack of a more favorable Pacific. That being said, it's pretty funny I think.

John, I rather have a great Pacific and a decent Atlantic, than an amazing Atlantic and an atrocious Pacific. Without a pronounced ridge over the West, the northern stream pattern will not abate even though there is massive blocking in the Atllantic...;.

[mattinpa]

the run or our luck? or both lol

It IS 10 days away. Look at how many flip flops with this next storm 96 hours out.

[tombo82685]

getting out in time now, but hr 240 has a nice ridge out west, but the ridge axis is on the coast, which is not ideal for snowstorms.....the goa low are killing its, granted this has a weak one, they are always still present.