0z Model Guidance 12/9

[tombo82685]

GFS Ensembles have shifted way north with the initial surface low on the spaghetti plots through 78 hrs

post 78, it pops a coastal 2ndry though or atleast a good amount of the spread has it out there

[Ji]

post 78, it pops a coastal 2ndry though or atleast a good amount of the spread has it out there

how is P0009 doing?

[NJwinter23]

Don't have BUFKIT...im guessing there's a warm layer directly near the surface? It doesn't really seem that way on the 84 hr sounding.

Hmm, I realize the sounding I'm looking at on bufkit for 84hrs is much much different/warmer then the one youve posted. Everywhere 850mb and below is above 0 at kMMU on the sounding im looking at.

[earthlight]

GFS Ensemble mean is certainly nice at 96-108 hours, I can tell you guys that much. That's not saying too much, though..the means can be very deceiving.

[tombo82685]

hr 96 on the gfs ens pop a sub 996 low bout 75-100 miles east of norfolk

[Analog96]

What the hell is taking meteostar so long tonight? It's usually out by now. Of course, when I have to wake up at 6 is the one time it's going to be late.

[earthlight]

Ensemble mean has a 990mb surface low south of LI that then moves into Southern New England...actually shifted a good bit east of 18z.

[tombo82685]

here is hr 72 on the gem 1006 low in western ten

[mattinpa]

I would assume that is about 1-2" of snow for the region on the GFS? It could be our first taste of accum. snow, but I still have a lot of interest in the storm after that despite what the GFS shows tonight.

[tombo82685]

Ensemble mean has a 990mb surface low south of LI that then moves into Southern New England...actually shifted a good bit east of 18z.

john i think we have a consensus growing here. The gem is going towards it to. Primary, albeit weak around 1000-1004 to ohio, coastal forms somwhere in mid atl to northern mid atl coast

[NJwinter23]

Don't have BUFKIT...im guessing there's a warm layer directly near the surface? It doesn't really seem that way on the 84 hr sounding.

And it is because youve posted the 96 hour sounding before, not the 84 hr sounding...96hr sounding still supports rain according to bufkit by the way, though it is between that and the 99hr sounding where it changes to sleet according to the algorithm.

[Kaner587]

one of these runs, and my guess is a 6z or 18z, the GFS is gonna show a snowstorm when the reality is the best we can probably hope for is something along the lines of the what the 0z showed with maybe a quicker coastal transition, but in the end this doesn't look to be a monster snow producer for anyone. Will I have to eat my words? well see

[earthlight]

john i think we have a consensus growing here. The gem is going towards it to. Primary, albeit weak around 1000-1004 to ohio, coastal form somwhere in mid atl to northern mid atl

The GGEM has the primary further south but don't be surprised if it cuts it inland still. The trough is at a better tilt for a phase than the GFS--despite the GFS having the primary further north initially.

[Kaner587]

BTW in case anyone cares, DT has changed his tune a bit...acknowledges potential for a quasi 50/50 and POTENTIALLY more eastern track. Still buys the EURO though

[tombo82685]

The GGEM has the primary further south but don't be surprised if it cuts it inland still. The trough is at a better tilt for a phase than the GFS--despite the GFS having the primary further north initially.

it did, what i thought, takes the primary inland around 1000mb, then develops a 2ndry off mid atl coast.

[Kaner587]

it did, what i thought, takes the primary inland around 1000mb, then develops a 2ndry off mid atl coast.

you scared me with the "it did," I almost stopped reading lol..nice to see this secondary idea taking hold since I believe this is our only shot.

[Ji]

you scared me with the "it did," I almost stopped reading lol..nice to see this secondary idea taking hold since I believe this is our only shot.

we need some last minute digging and the secondary to pop somewhere in SC.

[tombo82685]

we need some last minute digging and the secondary to pop somewhere in SC.

It looks like a consensus is forming. nam,gfs,ggem...havent seen the post 72 ukie yet. They all take a weak low into ohio or the gem into pa, then pop a 2ndry. Obviously for this area we need that further south like you said and not off delmarva

[Grothar]

the clippers are in the southeast this year my friend. Is it possible to have a LA Nina with zero STJ the entire winter?

Now you know what it feels like to be on the northern end of a moisture starved clipper. Thanks for joining the real world. Last year was your year, time to share the events

[earthlight]

it did, what i thought, takes the primary inland around 1000mb, then develops a 2ndry off mid atl coast.

I'm looking at the maps, I don't see a secondary. The surface low goes into Eastern NY State. Look at the thicknesses compared to the GFS, completely different solution.

[eduggs]

The GGEM has the primary further south but don't be surprised if it cuts it inland still. The trough is at a better tilt for a phase than the GFS--despite the GFS having the primary further north initially.

The GGEM is an improvement over its previous run. Opens the door for some frozen precip on the front and back end. And from here another southeastward jog would get us close to an acceptable outcome.

[Ji]

It looks like a consensus is forming. nam,gfs,ggem...havent seen the post 72 ukie yet. They all take a weak low into ohio or the gem into pa, then pop a 2ndry. Obviously for this area we need that further south like you said and not off delmarva

it can work if it bombs quickly...Dec 2002 Christmas storm...i saw 4 inches very quickly after the coastal took over

[tombo82685]

I'm looking at the maps, I don't see a secondary. The surface low goes into Eastern NY State. Look at the thicknesses compared to the GFS, completely different solution.

look at hr 96 then 108, unless thats the same low and it just moves do east?

[earthlight]

The GGEM is an improvement over its previous run. Opens the door for some frozen precip on the front and back end. And from here another southeastward jog would get us close to an acceptable outcome.

That's fair enough

[earthlight]

At 120 hours it's definitely trying to retrograde the surface low and get some frozen precip into the area..but it's nothing like the GFS.

[Grothar]

It looks like a consensus is forming. nam,gfs,ggem...havent seen the post 72 ukie yet. They all take a weak low into ohio or the gem into pa, then pop a 2ndry. Obviously for this area we need that further south like you said and not off delmarva

Does the potential for an extensive dry slot worry you with the transfer?

[tombo82685]

Does the potential for an extensive dry slot worry you with the transfer?

well looking at the gem more, it doesnt look like the gem transfers like john said. It looked funny cause it basically moved do east, so i thought a coastal formed and tracked over mass The track is further south, alot further south than 12z i believe. But yea i would imagine there would be.

[Neblizzard]

Maybe we'll get lucky and get a nice Christmas snowstorm. Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that instead of a big storm cutting through the lakes, that we're going to be dealing with more of a frontal passage. In this case, an arctic frontal passage with a low that develops along the front. The gfs hasn't really budged with the cold air after the storm, very cold period for Monday through Wednesday. I'm not sure why the gfs wants to warm things up so quickly with all of that blocking going on, but anything beyond Day 5 is a total crap shoot.

No doubt about it, the pattern looks cold after the storm passage early next week. Even with the blocking over Greenland, the flow becomes more zonal across the CONUS because the pacific jet continues to roar. If some sort of +PNA pattern develops and we develop a dual blocking pattern, we will stay in the icebox for a LONG TIME....

[eduggs]

Gotta watch for a redeveloping low center in or south of SNE - like this GGEM run and especially the 18z DGEX showed. If the increasingly negatively tilted trof is situated far enough south and a distinct mid-level center moves in from the west, a surface low is going to want to form in a good spot to aid continuation of precip on the back side.

[Manny]

Overall either a more southern track (gem) and secondary coastal off the coast seems to be growing in plausiblity. Does anyone think the city has the potential to see back-end snow from any secondary formation near the coast (pulling cold air behind it), or does it lie more in an eastward and southern transfer?